Viktória Blanka

Drought Severity and its Effect on Agricultural Production in the Hungarian-Serbian Cross-Border Area

Abstract Several environmental and economic consequences of drought and the accompanying water shortage were observed in the plain area of the Carpathian Basin in the last decades. This area is mostly used for agriculture, thus it is a key problem in the future to maintain food safety in the changing circumstances. Therefore, involvement and identification of areas affected by drought hazard and revealing steps of efficient adaptation are of high importance. In this study influence of drought severity on agricultural production is investigated in the Hungarian-Serbian cross-border area. The tendency in drought severity was analysed by PaDI and MAI drought indices. The effect of drought on agricultural production is evaluated on maize yield data as the most drought sensitive crop in the region. Increasing drought frequency and severity was indicated for the study area for the period of 1961-2012. The spatial assessment of annual PaDI maps revealed the higher exposure of the north and northeastern part of the study area to drought, where drought frequency was also experienced to be the highest. Increased sensitivity was detected based on maize yield loss after the early 1990s and annual yields were in strong connection with d rought severity. In spite of the technological development of agriculture, environmental factors still substantially affect crop yie lds. The observed unfavourable changes in the region mean that water management and spatial planning faces conceptual challenges to prevent and mitigate the damages of drought.

Effect of Climate Change on the Hydrological Character of River Maros, Hungary-Romania

Abstract It is highly probable that the precipitation and temperature changes induced by global warming projected for the 21st century will affect the regime of Carpathian Basin rivers, e.g. that of River Maros. As the river is an exceptionally important natural resource both in Hungary and Romania it is necessary to outline future processes and tendencies concerning its high and low water hydrology in order to carry out sustainable cross-border river management. The analyses were based on regional climate models (ALADIN and REMO) using the SRES A1B scenario. The modelled data had a daily temporal resolution and a 25 km spatial resolution, therefore beside catchment scale annual changes it was also possible to assess seasonal and spatial patterns for the modelled intervals (2021- 2050 and 2071-2010). Those periods of the year are studied in more detail which have a significant role in the regime of the river. The study emphasizes a decrease in winter snow reserves and an earlier start of the melting period, which suggest decreasing spring flood levels, but also a temporally more extensive flood season. Changes in early summer precipitation are ambiguous, and therefore no or only slight changes in runoff can be expected for this period. Nevertheless, it seems highly probable that during the summer and especially the early autumn period a steadily intensifying water shortage can be expected. The regime of the river is also greatly affected by human structures (dams and reservoirs) which make future, more detailed modelling a challenge.

Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

Abstract The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

Extreme Weather and the Rivers of Hungary: Rates of Bank Retreat

In 2010, extreme flood events occurred on several rivers of the Carpathian Basin, especially on catchments which are open to the south. On the studied Hernad and Tisza Rivers, a couple of significant flood waves occurred; on the Hernad River, a new maximum water stage was even recorded. In contrast, no significant flood was measured on the Drava River, which has a catchment opening towards the east and where several reservoirs impede flow. Consequently, on the Hernad and Tisza Rivers bank retreat was intensive, two or three times larger in 2010 than in the previous or in the following years. Floods particularly accelerated bank retreat along sections where bank height is low and bank material has low resistance. In the case of high bluffs, mass failure also contributes to bank erosion, and thus, the process of undercutting and the removal of the toe material during medium- and low-stage periods are influential in bank retreat.

Public Perception on Hydro-Climatic Extremes and Water Management Related to Environmental Exposure, SE Hungary

Increasing climate extremities, as consequences of climate change, highly affect the public and farmers in the SE Carpathian Basin. Our research aimed at the investigation of the perceptions and experiences of public, farmers and decision-makers on drought and inland excess water problems on the Hungarian part of this region, since their knowledge and cooperation are essential in the future planning of sustainable water management. Their opinions were explored by 481 questionnaires and 52 in-depth interviews addressing the perceived climate change impacts in everyday life and agriculture, causes of drought and inland excess water, possibilities of mitigation and adaptation, and sustainability of the present farming structure. The spatial distribution of the answers was compared with the spatial pattern of drought and inland excess water sensitivity based on environmental indicators. The results confirmed their high correspondence reflecting a realistic knowledge on severity, significance and the contributing factors. Individual responsibility, the lack of financial resources and an uncertain vision of public were considered as major weak points that could be improved to foster the implementation of an effective water management strategy. High efforts are necessary to outline the framework of inclusive planning processes with exact roles of all actors and find ways to motivate co-operation willingness and increase individual responsibility.

Tree-Ring Width And Its Interrelation With Environmental Parameters: Case Study In Central Hungary

Abstract Tree ring width is influenced by several internal and external factors, among which climate became one of the most dominant due to the altering conditions and patterns of precipitation and temperature. The study aims to analyse the interrelationship between tree ring-width and the dominant environmental parameters in a landscape exposed to water scarcity in the past decades due to climate change and human interventions. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) and white poplar (Populus alba) plantations were sampled to reveal their exposure to climatic forcing and water scarcity (different water availability). Correlation and similarity analysis were carried out to compare the calculated ring-width indices to climatic parameters and aridity indices. Tree ring sensitivity was assessed to reveal the impact of water scarcity on yearly ring-growth. Spatial overlapping of significance levels and mean sensitivity with the hydrological changes of the past decades were evaluated to reveal presumable spatial differences of the investigated samples. In the study area (South Danube-Tisza Interfluve) droughts and the deep groundwater table had both impacts on tree growth. The spectacular decrease of ring-width corresponds to the drought years determined by the investigated aridity indices. The relationship between the climate parameters and the ring-widths varies spatially with the changing site conditions. The highest level of correlation coefficients was experienced in areas with the lowest level of water availability. Ring-width sensitivity assessments showed an increasing tendency of sensitivity when comparing the consecutive decades, except for samples with favorable water availability.

Modelling Runoff on a Small Lowland Catchment, Hungarian Great Plains

Abstract The lowland region of the South-Eastern Carpathian Basin faces extreme hydrological conditions, therefore the more detailed understanding, monitoring and predicting of the hydrological regime on catchments have high importance. However, in the region only few measured data are available in terms of evaporation, runoff, infiltration and water retention, and this is especially true concerning small catchments. In the meantime these areas support extensive agriculture, therefore more information is needed to manage future drying and irrigational demands. In the present research runoff and discharge were modelled for a ten year period and compared to at-a-station measurement data on the Fehértó-majsa Canal, a sub-catchment of the Tisza River, in order to test the predictability of hydrological changes related to future climate change. Modelling was made by applying a coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model and integrating all available topographic, pedologic, climatic, hydrologic and vegetation data. Consequently, another motivation of the research was to assess the suitability, data demand and limitations of the MIKE modelling environment on lowland catchments. As from all available data sources soil data seemed to be the least accurate, sensitivity tests were made by changing different soil parameter. Based on the results, the developed model is highly suitable for the estimation of annual and monthly runoff. Nevertheless, concerning daily data a general overestimation of discharge was experienced during low flow periods, and a time lag appeared between measured and modelled discharge peaks during high flow periods. In all, the results of the study can greatly support the realization of water management and planning projects in the drought prone sand land catchments where only a few directly measured data are available