Volker Gollnick

Estimation of the Market Potential for Supersonic Airliners via Analysis of the Global Premium Ticket Market

This study assesses the global market potential for supersonic airline transportation by evaluating worldwide premium ticket sales figures based on so-called marketing information data tapes (MIDTs). Origin-destination demand data were collected from an internet database and subjected to various processings and additions. After discussing factors of influence regarding market response, the final data files are used to estimate possible future demand for variously sized supersonic airliners.

A concept of forecasting origin-destination air passenger demand between global city pairs using future socio-economic scenarios

This study introduces a concept of a new method of forecasting air passenger flows on a global level using socio-economic scenarios. The method has two steps: forecasting the topology of origin-destination demand network and predicting the number of passengers on existing and new connections. Network theory is applied to simulate demand connections between cities utilizing weighted similarity based algorithms. The number of passengers on a connection is defined using quantitative analogies. Preliminary calculations show promising results. This concept of the global passenger demand prediction will be applied in a modular environment modeling the future air transport system.

A global gravity model for air passenger demand between city pairs and future interurban air mobility markets identification.

With respect to the growing urbanization and subsequently increasing traffic in urban areas this paper presents future potential markets worldwide for interurban air mobility up to 300 km. For this analysis a gravity model is developed to forecast interurban air passenger demand for 2042 between 4435 settlements worldwide based on socio-economic factors. The results of the study provide a list of potential markets for UAM implementation.

European Air Traffic Flow Management with Strategic Deconfliction

To guarantee a safe journey for each aircraft, air traffic controllers make sure that separation minima are maintained. To prevent controller overburdening, each controller team is responsible for one confined sector. Furthermore, sectors limit the number of flights entering each hour. Compliance to all sector and airport capacity constraints in daily business is ensured by EUROCONTROL’s Network Management. This function balances the flights’ demand of airspace with available capacity by re-allocating departure timeslots. However, when minimum separation between two aircraft may become compromised, a conflict occurs. Conflicts are solved by controllers who provide pilots with instructions to maintain separation. Hence, conflicts increase controller workload and thus tighten sector capacity. The aim of this work is a prevention of actual conflicts by strategic deconfliction. Strategic conflicts refer to planned trajectories which violate separation minima in any future point in space and time. Mimicking a future Network Management, departure times are re-allocated to reduce the number of strategic conflicts while satisfying both sector and airport capacity constraints. As a basis for the deconfliction, actual datasets of planned trajectories, sector bounds and airport features are aggregated to model the European Air Traffic Flow Management. The allocation problem of departure timeslots is formulated as a Quadratic Binary Problem with linear delay costs, quadratic conflict costs and linear constraints. In an optimal solution, all strategic conflicts are solved. Finally, a trade-off between conflict reduction and delay is performed.