Volodymyr Trotsiuk

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

An atlas of megadroughts in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era provides insights into climate variability. Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

Forest disturbances under climate change

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

The historical disturbance regime of mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians and its influence on current forest structure and composition

In order to gauge ongoing and future changes to disturbance regimes, it is necessary to establish a solid baseline of historic disturbance patterns against which to evaluate these changes. Further, understanding how forest structure and composition respond to variation in past disturbances may provide insight into future resilience to climate-driven alterations of disturbance regimes. We established 184 plots (mostly 1000 m2) in 14 primary mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians. On each plot we surveyed live and dead trees and regeneration, and cored around 25 canopy trees. Disturbance history was reconstructed by examining individual tree growth trends. The study plots were further aggregated into five groups based on disturbance history (severity and timing) to evaluate and explain its influence on forest structure. These ecosystems are characterized by a mixed severity disturbance regime with high spatiotemporal variability in severity and frequency. However, periods of synchrony in disturbance activity were also found. Specifically, a peak of canopy disturbance was found for the mid-19th century across the region (about 60% of trees established), with the most important periods of disturbance in the 1820s and from the 1840s to the 1870s. Current stand size and age structure were strongly influenced by past disturbance activity. In contrast, past disturbances did not have a significant effect on current tree density, the amount of coarse woody debris, and regeneration. High mean densities of regeneration with height >50 cm (about 1400 individuals per ha) were observed. Extensive high severity disturbances have recently affected Central European forests, spurring a discussion about the causes and consequences. We found some evidence that forests in the Western Carpathians were predisposed to recent severe disturbance events as a result of synchronized past disturbance activity, which partly homogenized size and age structure and made recent stands more vulnerable to bark beetle outbreak. Our data suggest that these events are still part of the range of natural variability. The finding that regeneration density and volume of coarse woody debris were not influenced by past disturbance illustrates that vastly different past disturbance histories are not likely to change the future trajectories of these forests. These ecosystems currently have high ecological resilience to disturbance. In conclusion, we suggest that management should recognize disturbances as a natural part of ecosystem dynamics in the mountain forests of Central Europe, account for their stochastic occurrence in management planning, and mimic their patterns to foster biodiversity in forest landscapes.

Ecology of Tilia sibirica in a continental hemiboreal forest, southern Siberia: An analogue of a glacial refugium of broad-leaved temperate trees?:

Siberian lime (Tilia sibirica) is a broad-leaved deciduous tree closely related to European Tilia cordata. It is endemic to a few sites in southern Siberia, located approximately 2000 km east of the limit of the European deciduous forest biome. These isolated sites with locally increased precipitation can be considered as potential analogues of the glacial refugia of temperate trees. To understand the ecology of such refugia, we studied the history and recent dynamics of the forests containing T. sibirica using soil charcoal and tree-ring analyses at the largest locality of this species (Kuzedeevo). These forests are currently dominated by Populus tremula and Betula pendula, with scattered occurrence of Abies sibirica and Tilia, which form small monodominant stands locally. Soil charcoal indicated continuous occurrence of all of these trees more than 1000 years ago, but the dominant species in the past were Abies and Populus. Current patches of Tilia-dominated forests are even-aged, 40–80 years old, with tree-ring patterns indicating their origin in open areas, probably after logging in the 20th century. After disturbance, Abies seedlings tend to be outcompeted by tall herbs, whereas Tilia can form small monodominant stands through vegetative regeneration. However, in the natural undisturbed Abies–Populus forest, Tilia was probably a subordinate species. Analogously to this modern Siberian ecosystem, temperate deciduous trees, especially those with vegetative regeneration, may have survived as rare components of coniferous forests in glacial periods at locally favorable sites such as those with increased orographic precipitation and protection by a thick snow cover.

Contrasting effects of environmental change on the radial growth of co-occurring beech and fir trees across Europe

Under predicted climate change, native silver fir (Abies alba) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) are the most likely replacement species for the Norway spruce (Picea abies) monocultures planted across large parts of continental Europe. Our current understanding of the adaptation potential of fir-beech mixed forests to climate change is limited because long-term responses of the two species to environmental changes have not yet been comprehensively quantified. We compiled and analysed tree-ring width (TRW) series from 2855 dominant, co-dominant, sub-dominant and suppressed fir and beech trees sampled in 17 managed and unmanaged mixed beech-fir forest sites across Continental Europe, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany, Italy, Romania and Slovakia. Dendroecological techniques that combine various detrending methods were used to investigate variation in radial growth of co-occurring fir and beech trees. Coincidental with peak SO2 emissions, the growth of silver fir declined between 1950 and 1980 at most sites, whereas beech growth increased during this period. Correspondent to a significant warming trend from 1990-2010, average beech growth declined, but silver fir growth increased. Long-term growth patterns and growth-climate sensitivity of fir and beech trees did not significantly differ between managed and unmanaged forests. Multi-decadal changes in the growth rate of all vertical tree classes were similar. In contrast to previous indications of limited drought susceptibility of beech mixed stands, this study suggests that the mixture of tree species in forest stands does not necessarily prevent growth depressions induced by long-term environmental change. Our results further imply that forest management does not necessarily alter their sensitivity to environmental changes.

A Combined Tree Ring and Vegetation Model Assessment of European Forest Growth Sensitivity to Interannual Climate Variability

FB acknowledges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (P300P2_154543) and the EU Horizon-2020 project “BACI” (grant 640176). SK, FJ, RS and DCF are supported by the SNF iTREE sinergia project 136295. FJ, SL, and RS acknowledge support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (#200020_172476), OB acknowledges funding from UEFISCDI project PN-II-ID-PCE-2011-3-07 and VT is supported by the GACR 15-14840S and CIGA 20154316.