Walter P. Falcon

Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

The Ripple Effect: Biofuels, Food Security, and the Environment

An additional 2–2.5 billion people living on

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

1 to

Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Predict Rice Production in Indonesia

2 per day are also at risk, as rising commodity prices could pull them swiftly into a food-insecure state.The potential impact of a large global expansion of biofuels production capacity on net food producers and consumers in low-income countries presents challenges for food policy planners and raises the question of whether sustainable development targets at a more general level can be reached.

Carving up the commons—emergence of a new international regime for germplasm development and transfer

El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesias main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the countrys rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9–18% today (depending on the region) to 30–40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April–June) of ≈10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July–September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.

USING EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CLIMATE DATA TO IMPROVE FOOD POLICY PLANNING IN INDONESIA

Despite the strong signal of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to seasonal rice production and food security in the region have not been well developed or widely used in a policy context. This study successfully measures the connections among sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and rice production in Indonesia during the past three decades. Regression results show particularly strong connections on Java, where 55% of the countrys rice is grown. Two-thirds of the interannual variance in rice plantings and 40% of the interannual variance in rice production during the main (wet) season on Java are explained by year-to-year fluctuations in SSTAs measured 4 and 8 months in advance, respectively. These effects are cumulative; during strong El Niño years, production shortfalls in the wet season are not made up later in the crop year. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative predictions of ENSOs effects on rice harvests can provide an additional tool for managing food security in one of the worlds most populous and important rice-producing countries.

Variability and growth in grain yields 1950-94: does the record point to greater instability?

No nation has ever fabricated or maintained a prosperous food system based on genetic resources of purely indigenous origin. Remarkably, many countries now seem ready and almost eager to try such an approach. We identify four separate components of an emerging regime that are interacting in ways that should worry everyone concerned with the development and transfer of plant genetic materials into the South: new provisions on intellectual property; increased concentration of new enabling technologies into a few large multinational companies; heightened anxieties over transgenic crops; and new problems arising from international agreements. We argue that the solutions now being discussed in global forums are either infeasible, incomplete, or are likely to have seriously negative effects. We call instead for creative new thinking on building human capacity in developing countries, on the legal status of plant genetic resources, and on publicprivate partnerships, especially those in service of the poor.  2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Is the locus of poverty changing

Despite the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Niño years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Niño years than La Niña years. Indonesias paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Rice Production in Luzon, the Philippines

This article assesses growth and variability in corn wheat and rice yields during 1950-94 globally and regionally. Variability in world cereal production since 1950 is mostly attributed to yield instability from changes in agroclimate resources and technological conditions as well as changes in economic stimuli and input variability. The study aims to answer the question of whether yield instability among regions crops and time is increasing relative to growth in output levels. Yield growth and variance are compared for the periods 1950-64 1965-79 and 1980-94. The authors focus on corn wheat and rice as cereal grains that exemplify intensification production processes. Analysis very specifically focuses on patterns in US corn yields and the contribution of US yield instability to global corn yield variability. Data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database. Former Soviet Union data were included only in the global total. Findings indicate a doubling of yields during the study period. The gap between rice and wheat yields in developing and developed countries decreased. It appears that corn and wheat yields declined during 1980-94. Analysis is based on natural log transformations of yield against time for each period as the best measure of instability. Findings indicate that average deviation increased from about 2.7% to 7.1% annually. The instability of corn yields did not increase in developing countries but their variability did rise significantly in Africa during 1980-94. Yield variability for wheat declined globally and declined to a lesser extent through the mid-1980s. Yield variability for rice declined significantly between the first and second time periods globally and declined to a lesser extent in Asia. Rice yield instability increased significantly in developed countries during 1980-94. In the US corn yield instability increased during 1950-94 and dominated global instability.

The Maize Transition in Asia: Unlocking the Controversy

Abstract Urbanization is now a dominant demographic phenomenon in low- and middle-income countries. By the year 2000, half of the worlds population will live in urban areas; of this half, two thirds will be in developing countries, predominantly in Asia. Whether there will be a corresponding shift of poverty from rural to urban areas is the central question of this analysis. Evidence from cross-sectional, time-series, and case data indicates that the percent of poverty in urban areas is dependent on income levels, income growth, and income distribution. The evidence also indicates that the number of poor in rural areas will exceed those in urban areas well into the 21st century. These poverty and urbanization trends are significant politically, and important also with respect to food policy and required investments in agriculture.