Wayne C. Levy

The Seattle Heart Failure Model: Prediction of Survival in Heart Failure

Background— Heart failure has an annual mortality rate ranging from 5% to 75%. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a multivariate risk model to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival in heart failure patients with the use of easily obtainable characteristics relating to clinical status, therapy (pharmacological as well as devices), and laboratory parameters. Methods and Results— The Seattle Heart Failure Model was derived in a cohort of 1125 heart failure patients with the use of a multivariate Cox model. For medications and devices not available in the derivation database, hazard ratios were estimated from published literature. The model was prospectively validated in 5 additional cohorts totaling 9942 heart failure patients and 17 307 person-years of follow-up. The accuracy of the model was excellent, with predicted versus actual 1-year survival rates of 73.4% versus 74.3% in the derivation cohort and 90.5% versus 88.5%, 86.5% versus 86.5%, 83.8% versus 83.3%, 90.9% versus 91.0%, and 89.6% versus 86.7% in the 5 validation cohorts. For the lowest score, the 2-year survival was 92.8% compared with 88.7%, 77.8%, 58.1%, 29.5%, and 10.8% for scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The overall receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.729 (95% CI, 0.714 to 0.744). The model also allowed estimation of the benefit of adding medications or devices to an individual patients therapeutic regimen. Conclusions— The Seattle Heart Failure Model provides an accurate estimate of 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival with the use of easily obtained clinical, pharmacological, device, and laboratory characteristics.

Effect of Nesiritide in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

BACKGROUND Nesiritide is approved in the United States for early relief of dyspnea in patients with acute heart failure. Previous meta-analyses have raised questions regarding renal toxicity and the mortality associated with this agent. METHODS We randomly assigned 7141 patients who were hospitalized with acute heart failure to receive either nesiritide or placebo for 24 to 168 hours in addition to standard care. Coprimary end points were the change in dyspnea at 6 and 24 hours, as measured on a 7-point Likert scale, and the composite end point of rehospitalization for heart failure or death within 30 days. RESULTS Patients randomly assigned to nesiritide, as compared with those assigned to placebo, more frequently reported markedly or moderately improved dyspnea at 6 hours (44.5% vs. 42.1%, P=0.03) and 24 hours (68.2% vs. 66.1%, P=0.007), but the prespecified level for significance (P≤0.005 for both assessments or P≤0.0025 for either) was not met. The rate of rehospitalization for heart failure or death from any cause within 30 days was 9.4% in the nesiritide group versus 10.1% in the placebo group (absolute difference, -0.7 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.1 to 0.7; P=0.31). There were no significant differences in rates of death from any cause at 30 days (3.6% with nesiritide vs. 4.0% with placebo; absolute difference, -0.4 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.3 to 0.5) or rates of worsening renal function, defined by more than a 25% decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (31.4% vs. 29.5%; odds ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.21; P=0.11). CONCLUSIONS Nesiritide was not associated with an increase or a decrease in the rate of death and rehospitalization and had a small, nonsignificant effect on dyspnea when used in combination with other therapies. It was not associated with a worsening of renal function, but it was associated with an increase in rates of hypotension. On the basis of these results, nesiritide cannot be recommended for routine use in the broad population of patients with acute heart failure. (Funded by Scios; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00475852.).

Use of an Intrapericardial, Continuous-Flow, Centrifugal Pump in Patients Awaiting Heart Transplantation

Background— Contemporary ventricular assist device therapy results in a high rate of successful heart transplantation but is associated with bleeding, infections, and other complications. Further reductions in pump size, centrifugal design, and intrapericardial positioning may reduce complications and improve outcomes. Methods and Results— We studied a small, intrapericardially positioned, continuous-flow centrifugal pump in patients requiring an implanted ventricular assist device as a bridge to heart transplantation. The course of investigational pump recipients was compared with that of patients implanted contemporaneously with commercially available devices. The primary outcome, success, was defined as survival on the originally implanted device, transplantation, or explantation for ventricular recovery at 180 days and was evaluated for both noninferiority and superiority. Secondary outcomes included a comparison of survival between groups and functional and quality-of-life outcomes and adverse events in the investigational device group. A total of 140 patients received the investigational pump, and 499 patients received a commercially available pump implanted contemporaneously. Success occurred in 90.7% of investigational pump patients and 90.1% of controls, establishing the noninferiority of the investigational pump (P<0.001; 15% noninferiority margin). At 6 months, median 6-minute walk distance improved by 128.5 m, and both disease-specific and global quality-of-life scores improved significantly. Conclusions— A small, intrapericardially positioned, continuous-flow, centrifugal pump was noninferior to contemporaneously implanted, commercially available ventricular assist devices. Functional capacity and quality of life improved markedly, and the adverse event profile was favorable. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00751972.

Cardiovascular responses to exercise. Effects of aging and exercise training in healthy men.

BACKGROUND Cardiac aging alters many of the acute responses to exercise stress, but the extent to which chronic exercise (ie, training) can alter or improve the effects of aging in humans is largely unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS Cardiovascular responses to graded supine exercise stress (beginning at 200 kpm and increasing by 200 kpm every 3 minutes till exhaustion) were assessed using radionuclide ventriculography in 13 older (age, 60 to 82 years) and 11 young (age, 24 to 32 years) rigorously screened healthy men before and after 6 months of endurance training. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to test significance. During exercise, the old group had a lesser increase in heart rate (+105% old versus +166% young), a greater increase in mean blood pressure (+35% old versus +22% young), lesser increases in ejection fraction (+3 ejection fraction units old versus +11 units young) and peak ejection rate (+62% old versus +119% young), a greater increase in end-diastolic volume index (+8% old versus -10% young), a lesser fall in end-systolic volume index (-0% old versus -32% young), and a lesser increase in cardiac index (+135% old versus +189% young) (all P < .01 young/old versus exercise stage). Stroke volume index response to exercise was not different with aging (+14% old versus +6% young, P = NS). Exercise training increased maximal oxygen intake by 21% in the older group (28.9 +/- 4.6 to 35.1 +/- 3.8 mL.kg-1.min-1, P < .001) and by 17% in the young (44.5 +/- 5.1 to 52.1 +/- 6.3 mL.kg-1.min-1, P < .001) and increased peak workload by 24% in the old and 28% in the young. Exercise training had no differential effects on old versus young men. Among all subjects, training significantly reduced the resting heart rate by 12% (-8 beats per minute) and increased resting end-diastolic volume index by 13% (+9 mL/M2) and resting stroke volume index by 18% (+7 mL/M2) (all P < .01). At peak exercise, cardiac index increased by 16% (+1.07 L.M-2.min-1) compared with before training, which was the result of an increase in stroke volume of 18% (+7 mL/M2) (P < .001); peak heart rate was unchanged. The increase in stroke volume index at peak exercise was the result of both a 12% increase in end-diastolic volume index (+8 mL/M2) (P < .01) and an increase in ejection fraction (+3 ejection fraction units) (P < .05) at peak exercise. The increased ejection fraction at peak exercise occurred despite a 9% increase in systolic blood pressure (+18 mm Hg) (P < .01), suggesting an increase in contractility. Thus, both the young and old increased peak exercise cardiac output by use of the Frank-Starling mechanism (ie, cardiac dilatation) as well as an increase in ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that there is an age-associated decline in heart rate, ejection fraction, and cardiac output responses to supine exercise in healthy men. Although the stroke volume responses of the young and old are similar, the old tend to augment stroke volume during exercise more through cardiac dilatation, with an increase in end-diastolic volume (+8%) but without much change in ejection fraction (+3 ejection fraction units), whereas the young rely more on an increase in the ejection fraction (+11 ejection fraction units) with no cardiac dilatation (-10%). Despite the significant cardiovascular changes that occur in the response to a single bout of exercise with aging, adaptations to chronic exercise training were not different with aging and included improvements in maximal workload and increases in ejection fraction, stroke volume index, and cardiac index at peak exercise.

Anemia predicts mortality in severe heart failure: the prospective randomized amlodipine survival evaluation (PRAISE).

OBJECTIVES Our aim was to examine the relationships between serum hematocrit (Hct) and risk of all-cause mortality among patients with severe heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND Anemia occurs with increased frequency in severe HF. However, few studies have examined the impact of anemia on mortality in this population. METHODS Using a prospective cohort design, we evaluated the relationships between baseline serum Hct and mortality among 1,130 patients with left ventricular EF <30% and New York Heart Association functional class IIIB or IV HF treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, diuretics, and digitalis. Mortality was ascertained by centralized adjudication. RESULTS The mean Hct was 41.8% (range 25.4% to 58.8%). Over 15 months of mean follow-up, there were 407 deaths (29 per 100 person-years). After adjustment for potential confounders, those in the lowest quintile of Hct (range 25.4% to 37.5%) had a 52% higher risk of death (hazard ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.10), compared with the highest quintile (range 46.1% to 58.8%). Within the lowest quintile of Hct, each 1% decrease in Hct was associated with an 11% higher risk of death (p < 0.01), whereas within the four higher quintiles of Hct, Hct was not associated with total mortality. Evaluation of different causes of death indicated that a lower Hct was strongly associated with death from progressive HF, rather than sudden death or other deaths. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with severe HF, anemia is a significant independent risk factor for death, with a progressively higher risk with increasing severity of anemia. Further investigation of the etiologies, prevention, and treatment of anemia in severe HF is warranted.

Ovarian function following marrow transplantation for aplastic anemia or leukemia.

One hundred eighty-seven women between 13 and 49 years of age had ovarian function evaluated from 1 to 15 years (median, 4) after marrow transplant for aplastic anemia or leukemia. Among 43 women transplanted for aplastic anemia following 200 mg/kg cyclophosphamide (CY), all 27 less than 26 years of age, but only five of 16 greater than 26 years of age recovered normal ovarian function. Nine of the 43 have had 12 pregnancies, resulting in eight live births, and two elective and two spontaneous abortions. All eight children are normal. Nine of 144 women transplanted for leukemia following 120 mg/kg CY and 9.20 to 15.75 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) recovered ovarian function. Two of these nine have had three pregnancies, resulting in two spontaneous and one elective abortion. The probability of having ovarian failure was 0.35 by 7 years for patients receiving CY alone and was 1.00 at 1 year for patients receiving CY plus TBI (P less than .0001). By 7 years after transplant the probabilities of having normal ovarian function were 0.92 after CY alone and 0.24 after CY plus TBI (P less than .0001). Multivariate analysis showed that TBI was the only factor significantly influencing ovarian failure and that both TBI and greater patient age at transplant were significantly associated with a decreased probability of recovering normal ovarian function. These data demonstrate that after high-dose CY, recovery of ovarian function occurs in younger women and in a minority of older women, but after CY and TBI, recovery occurs in only a few younger women and none of the older women.

Percutaneous Mitral Annuloplasty for Functional Mitral Regurgitation: Results of the CARILLON Mitral Annuloplasty Device European Union Study

Background— Functional mitral regurgitation (FMR), a well-recognized component of left ventricular remodeling, is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in heart failure patients. Percutaneous mitral annuloplasty has the potential to serve as a therapeutic adjunct to standard medical care. Methods and Results— Patients with dilated cardiomyopathy, moderate to severe FMR, an ejection fraction <40%, and a 6-minute walk distance between 150 and 450 m were enrolled in the CARILLON Mitral Annuloplasty Device European Union Study (AMADEUS). Percutaneous mitral annuloplasty was achieved through the coronary sinus with the CARILLON Mitral Contour System. Echocardiographic FMR grade, exercise tolerance, New York Heart Association class, and quality of life were assessed at baseline and 1 and 6 months. Of the 48 patients enrolled in the trial, 30 received the CARILLON device. Eighteen patients did not receive a device because of access issues, insufficient acute FMR reduction, or coronary artery compromise. The major adverse event rate was 13% at 30 days. At 6 months, the degree of FMR reduction among 5 different quantitative echocardiographic measures ranged from 22% to 32%. Six-minute walk distance improved from 307±87 m at baseline to 403±137 m at 6 months (P<0.001). Quality of life, measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, improved from 47±16 points at baseline to 69±15 points at 6 months (P<0.001). Conclusions— Percutaneous reduction in FMR with a novel coronary sinus-based mitral annuloplasty device is feasible in patients with heart failure, is associated with a low rate of major adverse events, and is associated with improvement in quality of life and exercise tolerance.

Effect of endurance exercise training on heart rate variability at rest in healthy young and older men

Heart rate variability (HRV) (SD of the RR interval), an index of parasympathetic tone, was measured at rest and during exercise in 13 healthy older men (age 60 to 82 years) and 11 healthy young men (age 24 to 32 years) before and after 6 months of aerobic exercise training. Before exercise training, the older subjects had a 47% lower HRV at rest compared with the young subjects (31 +/- 5 ms vs 58 +/- 4 ms, p = 0.0002). During peak exercise, the older subjects had less parasympathetic withdrawal than the young subjects (-45% vs -84%, p = 0.0001). Six months of intensive aerobic exercise training increased maximum oxygen consumption by 21% in the older group and 17% in the young group (analysis of variance: overall training effect, p = 0.0001; training effect in young vs old, p = NS). Training decreased the heart rate at rest in both the older (-9 beats/min) and the young groups (-5 beats/min, before vs after, p = 0.0001). Exercise training increased HRV at rest (p = 0.009) by 68% in the older subjects (31 +/- 5 ms to 52 +/- 8 ms) and by 17% in the young subjects (58 +/- 4 ms to 68 +/- 6 ms). Exercise training increases parasympathetic tone at rest in both the healthy older and young men, which may contribute to the reduction in mortality associated with regular exercise.

Endurance exercise training augments diastolic filling at rest and during exercise in healthy young and older men

BackgroundDiastolic filling at rest is altered markedly with advancing age. Whether exercise trainingcan improve diastolic filling at rest or during exercise in either healthy older or healthy young men has not been determined. The purpose of this study was to determine if 6 months of aerobic exercise training improves diastolic filling. Methods and ResultsRadionuclide diastolic filling parameters were measured at rest and during exercise in 14 older (age, 60 to 82 years) and 17 young (age, 24 to 32 years) rigorously screened healthy males before exercise training and in 13 older and 11 young men after 6 months of endurance exercise training. Diastolic filling rates were expressed in two ways, as absolute milliliters of blood (mL.s-1. m-2) and normalized to the end-diastolic volume. At baseline, the peak early filling rates were lower in the older group compared with the young group as expressed in absolute milliliters of blood (older, 85 7 mL. s-1. m-2; young, 173+ 10 mL. s-1 m2; P<.0001) and in end-diastolic volume per second (1.66+0.11 versus 2.55 ± 0.08, p<.0001), whereas the peak atrial filling rates were greater in absolute milliliters of blood (85 ± 5 versus 56 ± 7 mL. s-1. m-2, P=.003) and in end-diastolic volume per second (1.70 ± 0.12 versus 0.80+0.06, p<.0001). During exercise, at any given heart rate, the older group had a lower peak filling rate than the young group. Also, at peak exercise, the single peak filling rate was decreased in the older group in mL. S m-2 (384 ± 19 versus 565 ± 36 mL. s-1 m-2, P=.0002) and in end-diastolic volume per second (6.01 ± 0.25 versus 7.91+0.28 end-diastolic volume per second, p<.0001). Six months of intensive aerobic exercise training had similar effects in the old and young groups overall. Maximal oxygen consumption increased 19% (ANOVA training effect, p<.0001) and echocardiographic left ventricular mass increased 8% (ANOVA training effect, P=.002). Training increased the resting peak early filling rate in absolute milliliters of blood by +14% (ANOVA training effect, P=.02). During exercise, the peak eariy or single peak filling rate at any given heart rate was increased. At peak exercise, the single peak filling rate was increased by 14% in mL s-1. m-2 (ANOVA training effect, P=.0004). The only age-related differential effect of training was on the peak atrial filling rate in end-diastolic volume per second, which decreased by 27% in the older group but was unchanged in the young (+5%) (ANOVA young versus older, P=.001). The independent predictors of a greater maximal oxygen consumption by multivariate analysis were a higher peak exercise heart rate, a greater resting peak early filling rate, the exercise trained state, and a younger age. ConclusionHealthy older men have reduced early diastolic filling at rest and during exercise compared with young men. Endurance exercise training enhances early diastolic filling at rest and during exercise in both the old and the young. Training reduces the elevated resting atrial filling rate in the old, whereas the young were unchanged. The training-induced augmentation of early diastolic filling at rest and during exercise may be an important adaptation to allow an increase in stroke volume at rest and an increase in stroke volume, cardiac output, and maximal oxygen consumption during exercise.

Effects of physical conditioning on fibrinolytic variables and fibrinogen in young and old healthy adults.

BackgroundThe effects of 6 months of intensive endurance exercise training on resting tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) activity, plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) activity, t-PA antigen, and fibrinogen were studied in 10 young (24–30 years) and in 13 old male subjects (60–82 years). Methods and ResultsAfter training, maximum oxygen consumption was increased in the young group by 18% (44.9±5.0 to 52.9±6.6 ml/kg/min, p <0.001), whereas it was increased in the old group by 22% (29.0±4.2 to 35.5±3.6 ml/kg/min, p < 0.001). The young group had no significant changes in any of the measured variables, whereas the old group had a 39% increase in t-PA activity (0.82 + 0.47 to 1.14 + 0.42 IU/ml, p < 0.03), a 141% increase in the percentage of t-PA in the active form (11.1+7.7 to 26.8 + 15.1%, p < 0.01), a 58% decrease in PAI-1 activity (8.4 + 4.9 to 3.5±1.7 AU/mI, p < 0.01), and a 13% decrease in fibrinogen (3.57±0.79 to 3.11±0.52 gIl, p < 0.01). ConclusionsWe conclude that intensive exercise training enhances resting t-PA activity and reduces fibrinogen and PAI-1 activity in older men. These effects are potential mechanisms by which habitual physical activity might reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease.