Wendy McCausland

Stress and mass changes at a “wet” volcano: Example during the 2011–2012 volcanic unrest at Kawah Ijen volcano (Indonesia)

Since 2010, Kawah Ijen volcano has been equipped with seismometers, and its extremely acid volcanic lake has been monitored using temperature and leveling sensors, providing unprecedented time resolution of multiparametric data for an acidic volcanic lake. The nature of stress and mass changes of the volcano is studied by combining seismic analyses and volcanic lake measurements that were made during the strongest unrest ever recorded by the seismic network at Kawah Ijen. The distal VT earthquake swarm that occurred in May 2011 was the precursor of volcanic unrest in October 2011 that caused an increase in shallow earthquakes. The proximal VT earthquakes opened pathways for fluids to ascend by increasing the permeability of the rock matrix. The following months were characterized by two periods of strong heat and mass discharge into the lake and by the initiation of monochromatic tremor (MT) activity when steam/gases interacted with shallow portions of the aquifer. Significant seismic velocity variations, concurrent with water level rises in which water contained a large amount of steam/gas, were associated with the crises, that caused an although the unrest did not affect the shallow hydrothermal system at a large scale. Whereas shallow VT earthquakes likely reflect a magmatic intrusion, MT and relative seismic velocity changes are clearly associated with shallow hydrothermal processes. These results will facilitate the forecast of future crises.

Kawah Ijen volcanic activity: a review

Kawah Ijen is a composite volcano located at the easternmost part of Java island in Indonesia and hosts the largest natural acidic lake in the world. We have gathered all available historical reports on Kawah Ijen’s activity since 1770 with the purpose of reviewing the temporal evolution of its activity. Most of these observations and studies have been conducted from a geochemical perspective and in punctuated scientific campaigns. Starting in 1991, the seismic activity and a set of volcanic lake parameters began to be weekly available. We present a database of those measurements that, combined with historical reports, allow us to review each eruption/unrest that occurred during the last two centuries. As of 2010, the volcanic activity is monitored by a new multi-disciplinary network, including digital seismic stations, and lake level and temperature measurements. This detailed monitoring provides an opportunity for better classifying seismic events and forecasting volcanic unrest at Kawah Ijen, but only with the understanding of the characteristics of this volcanic system gained from the historical review presented here.

Testing Small-Aperture Array Analysis on Well-Located Earthquakes,

We have here analyzed local and regional earthquakes using array tech- niques with the double aim of quantifying the errors associated with the estimation of propagation parameters of seismic signals and testing the suitability of a probabilistic location method for the analysis of nonimpulsive signals. We have applied the zero-lag cross-correlation method to earthquakes recorded by three dense arrays in Puget Sound and Vancouver Island to estimate the slowness and back azimuth of direct P waves and S waves. The results are compared with the slowness and back azimuth computed from the source location obtained by the analysis of data recorded by the Pacific Northwest seismic network (PNSN). This comparison has allowed a quanti- fication of the errors associated with the estimation of slowness and back azimuth obtained through the analysis of array data. The statistical analysis gives σBP � 10° and σBS � 8° as standard deviations for the back azimuth and σSP � 0:021 sec= km and σSS � 0:033 sec=km for the slowness results of the P and S phases, respec- tively. These values are consistent with the theoretical relationship between slowness and back azimuth and their uncertainties. We have tested a probabilistic source location method on the local earthquakes based on the use of the slowness estimated for two or three arrays without taking into account travel-time information. Then we applied the probabilistic method to the deep, nonvolcanic tremor recorded by the arrays during July 2004. The results of the tremor location using the probabilistic method are in good agreement with those obtained by other techniques. Thewide depth range, of between 10 and 70 km, and the source migration with time are evident in our results. The method is useful for locating the source of signals characterized by the absence of pickable seismic phases.

New insights into Kawah Ijen's volcanic system from the wet volcano workshop experiment

Abstract Volcanoes with crater lakes and/or extensive hydrothermal systems pose significant challenges with respect to monitoring and forecasting eruptions, but they also provide new opportunities to enhance our understanding of magmatic–hydrothermal processes. Their lakes and hydrothermal systems serve as reservoirs for magmatic heat and fluid emissions, filtering and delaying the surface expressions of magmatic unrest and eruption, yet they also enable sampling and monitoring of geochemical tracers. Here, we describe the outcomes of a highly focused international experimental campaign and workshop carried out at Kawah Ijen volcano, Indonesia, in September 2014, designed to answer fundamental questions about how to improve monitoring and eruption forecasting at wet volcanoes.

Recent explosive eruptions and volcano hazards at Soputan volcano—a basalt stratovolcano in north Sulawesi, Indonesia

Soputan is a high-alumina basalt stratovolcano located in the active North Sulawesi-Sangihe Islands magmatic arc. Although immediately adjacent to the still geothermally active Quaternary Tondono Caldera, Soputan’s magmas are geochemically distinct from those of the caldera and from other magmas in the arc. Unusual for a basalt volcano, Soputan produces summit lava domes and explosive eruptions with high-altitude ash plumes and pyroclastic flows—eight explosive eruptions during the period 2003–2011. Our field observations, remote sensing, gas emission, seismic, and petrologic analyses indicate that Soputan is an open-vent-type volcano that taps basalt magma derived from the arc-mantle wedge, accumulated and fractionated in a deep-crustal reservoir and transported slowly or staged at shallow levels prior to eruption. A combination of high phenocryst content, extensive microlite crystallization and separation of a gas phase at shallow levels results in a highly viscous basalt magma and explosive eruptive style. The open-vent structure and frequent eruptions indicate that Soputan will likely erupt again in the next decade, perhaps repeatedly. Explosive eruptions in the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 2–3 range and lava dome growth are most probable, with a small chance of larger VEI 4 eruptions. A rapid ramp up in seismicity preceding the recent eruptions suggests that future eruptions may have no more than a few days of seismic warning. Risk to population in the region is currently greatest for villages located on the southern and western flanks of the volcano where flow deposits are directed by topography. In addition, Soputan’s explosive eruptions produce high-altitude ash clouds that pose a risk to air traffic in the region.

Re‐Estimated Effects of Deep Episodic Slip on the Occurrence and Probability of Great Earthquakes in Cascadia

Abstract Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (