Weslem Rodrigues Faria

Estimação das elasticidades de substituição do comércio regional do Brasil

O presente trabalho estima elasticidades de substituicao do comercio regional do Brasil considerando 110 produtos e 558 microrregioes. As elasticidades foram estimadas com base no modelo de Armington (1969), adaptado de forma similar a sugestao de Bilgic (2002) quanto a definicao das variaveis. Poucos trabalhos foram identificados na literatura que tiveram o objetivo de calcular elasticidades regionais de substituicao no comercio. Isso pode estar relacionado ao fato de a geracao do banco de dados ser nao trivial, no sentido de requerer informacoes refinadas e bastante numerosas da economia. Os resultados das estimacoes apresentaram em geral coeficientes com sinais esperados, e as elasticidades variaram que acordo com os tipos de produtos. Produtos relacionados as atividades agricolas e de extracao tendem a apresentar coeficientes menos elasticos que os coeficientes das atividades de servicos. Os produtos industriais mostraram conjuntamente um coeficiente medio igual a -1,775.

MODELING LAND USE AND THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZIL

This paper discusses the development of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed specification for land use. The model considers two aspects of land use: land as a measure of production cost and land as a physical entity that can be used in a variety of ways. To analyze the economic effects of climate change, we integrated the CGE model and an econometric model. The results based on this model, which captures how land allocation responds to changes in temperature and precipitation, are introduced as elasticities in the CGE model to offset the demand curve for land among 13 different land uses in 27 regions of Brazil. The simulations are based on climate data from a benchmark period (1975–2005) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate projection scenarios for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The results predict negative changes in real gross domestic product ranging from −0.0054% to −0.0198%, depending on the scenario.

A typology of propagation of technology and social preferences in the process of economic development: An input-output approach

In this paper we look at the interplay of technology and social preferences in different stages of economic development. We use a set of input-output tables for 32 different countries, published by OECD. The tables refer to the period 1996-2001 and were consolidated in 48 sectors so that structural comparisons were possible. Through the use of the fields of influence of structural change for partitioned input-output systems, we confirm that, for different levels of per capita GDP, technological progress is an important element to drive output growth. However, as an economy evolves, our dataset also confirm that the composition of final demand, which reveals social preferences in a static way, move away from agricultural and manufacturing to services activities. Such structural changes favor sectors with weaker output multipliers generating a force that helps driving income convergence among countries.