Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli

Regional effects of economic integration: the case of Brazil

Abstract In this paper, alternative strategies of economic integration are evaluated from the Brazilian perspective. Traditional trade gains and losses are considered in a cost-competitiveness approach, based on relative changes in the industrial cost and demand structures. In the first part of the analysis, a national CGE model is used in order to assess the first-round impacts of three alternative trade liberalization scenarios. In the second part, a Machlup–Goodwin-type interregional model is integrated to the CGE model in order to generate a top-down disaggregation of the national results. Spatial implications of the trade policies are assessed, showing that the trade strategies examined are likely to increase regional inequality in the country.

Regional Effects of Port Infrastructure: A Spatial CGE Application to Brazil

This article attempts to elucidate one of the mechanisms that link trade barriers, in the form of port costs, and subsequent growth and regional inequality. Prior attention has focused on inland or link costs, but port costs can be considered as a further barrier to enhancing trade liberalization and growth. In contrast to a highway link, congestion at a port may have severe impacts that are spread over space and time whereas highway link congestion may be resolved within several hours. Since a port is part of the transportation network, any congestion/ disruption is likely to ripple throughout the hinterland. In this sense, it is important to model properly the role nodal components play in the context of spatial models and international trade. In this article, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that is integrated to a transport network system is presented to simulate the impacts of increases in port efficiency in Brazil. The role of ports of entry and ports of exit are explicitly considered to grasp the holistic picture in an integrated interregional system. Measures of efficiency for different port locations are incorporated in the calibration of the model and used as the benchmark in our simulations. Three scenarios are evaluated: (1) an overall increase in port efficiency in Brazil to achieve international standards; (2) efficiency gains associated with decentralization in port management in Brazil; and (3) regionally differentiated increases in port efficiency to reach the boundary of the national efficiency frontier.

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin–destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Existe convergência espacial da produtividade agrícola no Brasil

This work analyzes the convergence of land productivity for Brazilian regions from 1991 to 2003. It evaluates if there is or not convergence of the agricultural productivity, controlling explicitly for spatial effects. To do so, an exploratory spatial data analysis was previously implemented and the presence of spatial autocorrelation for the land productivity was detected. In addition, spatial econometric models were developed for the convergence analysis.

Produtividade do setor agrícola brasileiro (1991-2003): uma análise espacial

Agricultural productivity is characterized by location patterns, represented by the so-called spatial effects, namely, spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. This paper analyzes the spatial effects which exert influence on agricultural land productivity at three points in time – 1991, 1997 and 2003 – at the microregional level, using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). The main finding shows that agricultural productivity is increasingly self-correlated in space, over time. Two high-high (HH) clusters are identified consistently: one of them is located in the State of Sao Paulo and parts of the Center-West region, while the other cluster (HH) lies in the Northeastern Coast.

Padrões de comércio interestadual no Brasil, 1985 e 1997

The aim of this paper is explore the spatial distribution of the interregional trade among the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1985 and 1997. To implement this methodology we use, as a dataset, the interregional exports and imports flows (CONFAZ and IBGE). Based on a set of tools of spatial analysis it is possible to detect the presence of global and local spatial autocorrelation in the distribution of trade and its components. The results of LISA statistics enable us to observe the presence of spatial heterogeneity in the interregional trade during the period of analysis. This paper concludes that the detection of spatial clusters of high and low interregional trade throughout the period is an indication of the persistence of spatial disparities among the Brazilian states.

Expectativas racionais e eficiência informacional: análise do mercado acionário brasileiro no período 1997-1999

The purpose of this paper is to test the Brazilian capital markets efficiency in face of monetary policy. In the period between the Asian crisis and the exchange flexibilization, the agents made a correct use of the available information and formed expectations about the policymakers behavior, even in the moments of crisis, in order to maintain the political rules adopted previously. The studys approach was based on the discussion about rational expectations and their relationship with efficient markets. The Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo index (IBOVESPA) was chosen as a proxy to Brazilian capital markets behavior, because the index variation can be understood as the rate of return in that market. To evaluate the returns behavior, the Wilcoxon ranks test was employed. From this statistical tests results, it was possible to infer that the Brazilian market was efficient in face of the behavior of economic policy by rules.

Avaliação da intensidade de emissões de CO2 setoriais e na estrutura de exportações: um modelo interregional de insumo-produto São Paulo/restante do Brasil

This paper quantifies CO2 emissions resulting from the consumption of energy fuels, assuming a hybrid interregional input-output analysis for the regions of Sao Paulo and rest of Brazil, using the matrix of 1996. We calculated the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions to 15 sectors, identifying the portion of total emissions due to the final demand and consumption intermediated. Moreover, the key-sectors emissions were calculated by elasticities, identifying the sectors of Agriculture, Steel, Food and Beverages, Other Sectors and Transport in the two regions analyzed. Finally, was also analyzed the amount of CO2 incorporated in exports, noting that the agenda of Brazilian exports is largely pollution intensive.

Interações energéticas entre o Estado de Minas Gerais e o restante do Brasil: uma análise inter-regional de insumo-produto

This paper analyses the interactions between the State of Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil with regard to energy consumption. A hybrid interregional input-output model, by means of which energy intensity measures are computed, is used to undertake the analysis. The energy measures allow, for instance, to assess the degree in which a sector production in Minas Gerais impacts the energy consumption inside and outside the state. Also, the measures allow to assess the degree in which a sector production in the rest of Brazil (outside Minas Gerais) impacts energy consumption inside and outside the state. The analysis presents disaggregate information for 14 economic sectors, two spatial areas (Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil), and one kind of energy use (total energy), thus allowing to trace an accurate portrait of interdependence patterns. A conclusion is that the methodology provides relevant information for the state managers/planners in the development of efficient strategies to guarantee energy supply.

Efeitos tecnológicos e estruturais nas emissões brasileiras de CO2 para o período 2000 a 2005: uma abordagem de análise de decomposição estrutural (SDA)

Este artigo objetiva mensurar a influencia de mudancas na estrutura produtiva sobre as variacoes nas emissoes de dioxido de carbono brasileiras. O metodo utilizado foi o de analise de decomposicao estrutural (SDA - Structural Decomposition Analysis). Trata-se de um metodo de insumo-produto, logo de estatica comparativa, que permite detalhar as mudancas tanto tecnologicas quanto no processo produtivo em termos setoriais. As emissoes setoriais foram obtidas junto ao balanco de emissoes, energias equivalente e final, e as matrizes IBGE de insumo-produto sao provenientes do Sistema de Contas Nacionais do IBGE, ambas para os anos de 2000 e 2005, sendo adaptadas para 15 setores economicos brasileiros. Os principais resultados indicam que: os setores de transportes, siderurgia e alimentos e bebidas sao aqueles que se mostraram mais propensos ao aumento de emissoes quando considerada a variacao na demanda final, enquanto os setores industria do cimento, de minerais nao metalicos e papel e celulose se destacam por reducao de emissoes devido a mudanca tecnologica.