Weston Anderson

A Comparative Analysis of Global Cropping Systems Models and Maps

This study aims to explore and quantify systematic similarities and differences between four major global cropping systems products: the dataset of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000), the spatial production allocation model (SPAM), the global agroecological zone (GAEZ) dataset, and the M3 dataset developed by Monfreda, Ramankutty, and Foley. The analysis explores not only the final cropping systems maps but also the interdependencies of each product, methodological differences, and modeling assumptions, which will provide users with information vital for discerning between datasets in selecting a product appropriate for each intended application.

Assessing the Economic Benefits of Sustainable Land Management Practices in Bhutan

This study was conducted with the objective of determining the returns to sustainable land management (SLM) at the national level in Bhutan. The study first uses satellite data on land change (Landsat) to examine land use change in 1990–2010 and its impact on sediment loading in hydroelectric power plants. The study then uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze the impact of land use change and land management on sediment loading. The results from the land use change and SWAT analyses are used to assess the economic benefits of SLM.

Global Cost of Land Degradation

Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global level needs to be supported by a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of action versus costs of inaction against land degradation. Consistent with the definition of land degradation, we adopt the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach to determine the costs of land degradation and use remote sensing data and global statistical databases in our analysis. The results show that the annual costs of land degradation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) are about US

Chinese rice production area adaptations to climate changes, 1949-2010.

231 billion per year or about 0.41 % of the global GDP of US

The Food-Energy-Water Security Nexus: Definitions, Policies, and Methods in an Application to Malawi and Mozambique

56.49 trillion in 2007. Contrary to past global land degradation assessment studies, land degradation is severe in both tropical and temperate countries. However, the losses from LUCC are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 26 % of the total global costs of land degradation due to LUCC. However, the local tangible losses (mainly provisioning services) account only for 46 % of the total cost of land degradation and the rest of the cost is due to the losses of ecosystem services (ES) accruable largely to beneficiaries other than the local land users. These external ES losses include carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic information and cultural services. This implies that the global community bears the largest cost of land degradation, which suggests that efforts to address land degradation should be done bearing in mind that the global community, as a whole, incurs larger losses than the local communities experiencing land degradation. The cost of soil fertility mining due to using land degrading management practices on maize, rice and wheat is estimated to be about US

Methods for Estimating Population Density in Data-Limited Areas: Evaluating Regression and Tree-Based Models in Peru

15 billion per year or 0.07 % of the global GDP. Though these results are based on a crop simulation approach that underestimates the impact of land degradation and covers only three crops, they reveal the high cost of land degradation for the production of the major food crops of the world. Our simulations also show that returns to investment in action against land degradation are twice larger than the cost of inaction in the first six years alone. Moreover, when one takes a 30-year planning horizon, the returns are five dollars per each dollar invested in action against land degradation. The opportunity cost accounts for the largest share of the cost of action against land degradation. This explains why land users, often basing their decisions in very short-time horizons, could degrade their lands even when they are aware of bigger longer-term losses that are incurred in the process.

Economics of Land Degradation and Improvement in Bhutan

Climate change has great impact on cropping system. Understanding how the rice production system has historically responded to external forces, both natural and anthropogenic, will provide critical insights into how the system is likely to respond in the future. The observed historic rice movement provides insights into the capability of the rice production system to adapt to climate changes. Using province-level rice production data and historic climate records, here we show that the centroid of Chinese rice production shifted northeastward over 370 km (2.98°N in latitude and 1.88°E in longitude) from 1949 to 2010. Using a linear regression model, we examined the driving factors, in particular climate, behind such rice production movement. While the major driving forces of the rice relocation are such social economic factors as urbanization, irrigation investment, and agricultural or land use policy changes, climate plays a significant role as well. We found that temperature has been a significant and coherent influence on moving the rice center in China and precipitation has had a significant but less spatially coherent influence.

Global Drivers of Land Degradation and Improvement

This study summarizes the concept of the food-energy-water security nexus (FEW nexus). The aim is to create awareness about the importance of the nexus and to enable stakeholders to consider interconnections between the sectors in their work. The FEW nexus is discussed in the context of Africa south of the Sahara (SSA)—using Malawi and Mozambique as case studies. Even though analyzing food, energy, and water security issues simultaneously is critical given the interconnections, summarizing interventions with the FEW nexus approach in Malawi and Mozambique, we found that there are only a limited number of interventions in place. Additionally, this study reviews macro- and microeconomic models that are able to analyze the FEW nexus. On the macrolevel, especially general equilibrium models are discussed, because they show trade-offs and synergies of nexus interventions at all economic levels. These models can help guide policymakers’ understanding of nexus effects ex ante and convince them to think beyond their respective political departments. On the microlevel, the impact of nexus interventions can be assessed with qualitative and quantitative approaches. There are specific challenges for nexus interventions when it comes to aggregation and planning of the targeting. A secondary data analysis of nexus interventions shows that existing data is not sufficient to conduct research specifically related to the FEW nexus. The results of this study will help research programs to reflect the key questions required to enhance adoption of FEW technologies and inform policymakers as they formulate policies that will exploit the strong synergies of food security, energy, and water investments.

Can Sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? The role of irrigation development in the region’s drylands for food security

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies.

Evaluating Global Land Degradation Using Ground-Based Measurements and Remote Sensing

This study was conducted with the objective of determining the returns to sustainable land management (SLM) at the national level in Bhutan. The study first uses satellite data on land change (Landsat) to examine land use change in 1990–2010 and its impact on sediment loading in hydroelectric power plants. The study then uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze the impact of land use change and land management on sediment loading. The results from the land use change and SWAT analyses are used to assess the economic benefits of SLM. We estimate the benefits and costs of SLM practices and compare them with the land-degrading practices that are most prevalent in Bhutan—that is, business as usual. An analysis of the drivers of adoption of SLM practices is also done to draw conclusions about strategies that Bhutan could use to enhance adoption of SLM practices. The land cover change results show that the vast majority of forested areas remained as such between 1994 and 2010. SWAT results show that with long-term SLM practices such as contouring, increased forested cover and density, terracing, and other SLM practices, soil erosion from forested area could be reduced by 50 %. Analysis of returns to SLM practices showed that citrus orchards are the most profitable enterprises in 13 of the 20 districts (dzongkhag), but they require farmers to wait for at least six years before the first harvest. Improved pasture management is the second most profitable enterprise—underscoring the potential role it can play to meet the growing demand for livestock products as household incomes increase. Returns to community forest management are low but profitable at a 10 % discount rate. Considering the drivers of SLM adoption, our research shows an inverse relationship between returns to land management and their corresponding adoption rates. The factors that increase adoption of SLM were land security, access to extension services, and roads. In summary, Bhutan’s policies and its cultural and historical background have set the country on the path to becoming a global green growth success story. Results of this study vindicate the country’s efforts to invest in sustainable land and forest management and highlight the additional policies and strategies that will enhance achievement of Bhutan’s SLM objectives.