William C. Bailey

Murder, capital punishment, and television: execution publicity and homicide rates

The deterrent effect of criminal law is dependent upon communication to the public of the threat and application of sanctions. I test this argument for murder and capital punishment by examining monthly homicide rates and television publicity devoted to executions from 1976 through 1987. Despite the power of television as a source of news in the United States, the results of this study do not support either the deterrence argument, which contends that capital punishment reduces killings, or the brutalization argument, which contends that capital punishment promotes killings. Homicide rates were not found to be related to either the amount or the type of execution publicity over the period. (abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1990. Copyright

Rape and Dimensions of Gender Socioeconomic Inequality in U.S. Metropolitan Areas

There is a growing consensus that a major cause of the rape problem is the subordinate position of women in the social, political, and economic order. Despite this consensus, there have been few structural analyses of rape and inequality. Further, extant investigations suffer from a number of serious shortcomings such that, at present, there is not a sound basis for accepting, or rejecting, rape and inequality arguments. Correcting for many of the limitations of previous studies, this investigation extends our understanding of the role of gender socioeconomic inequality and other structural factors in the etiology of rape. The authors examine the relationship between rape rates and various measures of general, racial, and gender socioeconomic inequality for U.S. metropolitan areas. Their findings show that gender income inequality is a significant contributor to rape, but gender inequities in educational attainment and occupational status do not contribute significantly to this offense. The analysis also points to a number of other structural factors, including general income inequality, that are powerful predictors of rape.

Murder and Capital Punishment: A Monthly Time Series Analysis of Execution Publicity

In a recent analysis of the effect of execution publicity on homicides, Stack (1987) challenged the consensus of most social scientists that capital punishment does not effectively deter murder. He found that publicized executions have a very significant deterrent effect. Stack reports that 16 highly publicized executions may have saved as many as 480 innocent lives during 1950-1980. The present investigation attempts to shed additional light on the execution publicity/deterrence question. Our review of Stacks investigation shows that it suffers from a number of conceptual and methodological limitations. Correcting for these difficulties, we find no evidence that execution publicity influenced the rate of homicide during the 1950-1980 or 1940-1986 period. Some evidence suggests that higher levels of execution are associated with lower murder rates. However, the apparent deterrent effect is very slight and short term. Indeed, the cumulative effect of capital punishment on homicides during the execution and subsequent months is essentially zero. (abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1989. Copyright

The Socioeconomic Status of Women and Patterns of Forcible Rape for Major U.S. Cities

Abstract Despite the popularity of feminist argumenta identifying the disadvantaged socioeconomic status of women as a root cause of the female rape problem, these hypotheses have received very little empirical attention, and existing studies exhibit a variety of theoretical and methodological shortcomings. This investigation avoids many of these difficulties and examines the relationship between female rape rates and multiple dimensions of womens absolute and relative (to men) socioeconomic status for U.S. cities for 1930 an. 1990. Yearly cross-sectional and 1980 to 1990 change analyses provide evidence that one dimension of womens status—income level—is a significant contributor to rape. The remaining two status dimensions (educational and occupational attainment) considered do not have the predicted effects. Recommendations are made to extend the analysis to the year 2000 to determine if the generally improved income position that women have experienced so far in the 1990s will be accompanied by a re...

Structural influences on the killing of police: A comparison with general homicides

In this analysis we examine the possible structural determinants of police killings—the murder of police officers—by drawing on models of general homicide which emphasize the role of economic, cultural, and sociodemographic forces and factors. Examining the 50 states annually for the period 1977–1984, we find only partial support for the thesis of structural similarities between lethal assaults against police and general homicides. Rates for both types of killing are tied to the levels of absolute deprivation (percent poverty) and social integration or social disorganization (the divorce rate). Only homicides of civilians are associated significantly with general income inequality, black population, and urbanization; neither civilian nor police homicides are influenced significantly by racial income inequality or region. Despite variation in the pattern of results for the two types of homicide, the analysis supports the hypothesis that in the United States, lethal assaults against police have a definite s...

Deterrence and the Celerity of the Death Penalty: A Neglected Question in Deterrence Research

This paper examines the deterrent effect of the celerity of the death penalty on homicide rates. Although in recent years there have been a number of investigations of the certainty of execution and deterrence, the effect of celerity of execution has not been examined empirically. As a result, we can only speculate about the merit of the deterrence hypothesis for the celerity of executions, and how previous deterrence and death penalty investigations may be biased due to celerity being ignored. The deterrent effect of the certainty and celerity of the death penalty on homicide rates is examined cross-sectionally for states. Multiple measures of execution and homicide rates are considered, along with various sociodemographic variables in investigating the possible spuriousness of the findings. Analysis consistently fails to provide support for the deterrence argument for the certainty and celerity of executions. Rather, the results fall well within the pattern of negative findings of over five decades of deterrence and death penalty research in the United States.

Disaggregation in Deterrence and Death Penalty Research: The Case of Murder in Chicago

The proper role, if any, of capital punishment in our criminal justice system is an issue of unparalleled discussion in professional literature. Over one thousand books, articles, and reports on one or more aspects of the death penalty question have appeared since the turn of the century. In addition, the death penalty debate is not confined solely to professional circles; it occupies a prominent role in the popular press, media, and periodicals. In fact, the literature is so voluminous and the moral, legal, ethical, and empirical issues involved are so diverse and complex, that even the most recognized contemporary authorities on capital punishment readily acknowledge the limitations of their knowledge and understanding.1 The death penalty issue that is the focus of the greatest discussion and polarization both in professional and lay literature is the question of deterrence: does capital punishment deter crime, and most notably, murder? More properly and practically stated, does capital punishment provide a more effective general deterrent to murder than alternative legal sanctions such as imprisonment? Social scientists-most notably sociologists and criminologistshave played a long and active role in addressing this question empirically, with all studies up until the mid-1970s rejecting the deterrence hypothesis for capital punishment. For example, over five decades of research in this country failed to show higher murder rates in abolition than death penalty states, an increase in the murder rate after some states abolished capital punishment, or a decrease in murder after some

Preadjudicatory Detention in a Large Metropolitan Juvenile Court

While the use, and possible abuse, of detention by the juvenile court has been the subject of heated controversy in recent years, this issue has received very little systematic empirical attention. A few studies of detention have been conducted, but they have produced “mixed” findings, which may be a result of the different locations and time periods considered, and the different methodologies employed. To shed additional light on this important question, we examine in this investigation the effect of a variety of legal, extralegal, and other case characteristics on the preadjudicatory detention practices of a large metropolitan juvenile court. Over 60,000 cases disposed of by the court during a seven-year period (1969–1975) were considered in a detailed multivariate analysis of detention outcomes (detained/not detained). The analysis produced no evidence that the court operates on a double standard—discriminates—along sexual, racial, or socioeconomic lines in the use of detention. Both additive and interaction statistical models considering the extralegal variables showed a youths sex, race, and social class to be largely independent of detention decisions. In contrast, a legal factor—a youths previous court experience—was found to be an important predictor of detention. This factor better accounts for detention outcomes than any, or all, of the other legal, extralegal, and other case history variables considered in the analysis.

Forcible rape, poverty, and economic inequality in U.S. metropolitan communities

In this paper we review and extend a recent analysis of the structural determinants of forcible rape by Smith and Bennett (1985) that builds upon the theoretical works of Blau and Blau (1982) and Schwendinger and Schwendinger (1983). They find that poverty, but not racial economic inequality, is a major contributor to the rape problem. Our replication and extension of their study question these findings and point to serious theoretical and methodological limitations of their analysis. Correcting for these difficulties, we find support for Blau and Blaus argument that high rates of metropolitan rape are an apparent “cost” of general and racial economic inequality (two forms of relative deprivation) but not poverty (absolute deprivation). The analysis strongly suggests that the rape problem is not beyond the reach of general and racial economic reform.

Imprisonment v. the death penalty as a deterrent to murder

In this investigation we examine the simultaneous deterrent effect of imprisonment and executions on homicide. Examination of the census years 1920 to 1960 shows the certainty of execution and homicide rates to be generally unrelated. Also contrary to the deterrence hypothesis, the significant negative bivariate relationship between the severity of prison sentence and homicide rates found here and in earlier investigations is shown to be a statistical artifact resulting from a failure to control for the effects of alternative legal sanctions and sociodemographic factors. While neither imprisonment nor executions are found to have a significant deterrent effect on homicide, attention is called to some limitations of this investigation and the need for additional research.