William Golove

The evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in industrialized countries: an end-use analysis

Abstract Over the 1970s and 1980s, emissions of carbon dioxide from energy use fell in per capita, per unit GDP, and in some cases in absolute terms in 10 industrialized countries studied by LBNL. These declines were driven principally by falling end-use energy intensities and the decreasing carbon content of energy. By the early 1990s, however, a slowdown in the decline of intensities and the continued growth of GDP and energy services activity have reversed the trends in absolute emissions. LBNL concludes that CO 2 emissions will continue to rise in the future unless energy intensities and/or the carbon content of energy can be decreased at an accelerated rate via policy changes, technological innovation and/or behavioural adaptation.

Restraining carbon emissions: measuring energy use and efficiency in the USA

In this paper, we discuss the difficulties in measuring the effectiveness of policies intended to encourage compliance with international carbon restraint agreements. We establish the connection between energy consumption and carbon emissions, and demonstrate a method of disaggregating changes in each into changes in economic activity and structure, energy intensity and fuel mix factors. We utilize this method to analyze the historical trends in energy consumption and carbon emissions in the USA from 1960 to 1993. We analyze the contributions of the various factors to the restraint or encouragement of energy use and carbon emissions. We conclude that, in general, changes in the levels of economic activity have tended, all other factors being equal, to increase emissions, whereas declines in energy intensity and shifts in fuel mix have tended to restrain emissions. Changes in economic structure have had mixed effects. Finally, we discuss the problems with the available data which make the observation of the impact of energy and carbon policies difficult.

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

LBNL-53587 E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Accounting for Fuel Price Risk: Using Forward Natural Gas Prices Instead of Gas Price Forecasts to Compare Renewable to Natural Gas- Fired Generation Mark Bolinger, Ryan Wiser, and William Golove Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Rd., MS 90-4000 Berkeley, California 94720 Environmental Energy Technologies Division August 2003 Download from: http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP/ The work described in this study was funded by the Assistant Secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-ACO3-76SF00098.

Long-term trends in U.S. manufacturing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions☆

This paper describes our most recent analysis of U.S. manufacturing energy consumption and extends our previous efforts in two important ways. We have acquired new data that enable us to extend our previous period of study and thus examine three distinct time periods, two with stable energy prices (1958–1973 and 1985–1991) and one in which energy prices rose significantly (1973–1985). We have also adapted our method to examine the historical trends of carbon emissions associated with manufacturing.

Comparing the risk profiles of renewable and natural gas electricity contracts: A summary of the California Department of Water Resources contracts

LBNL- 50965 ERNEST O R L A N D O L A W R E N C E B E R K E L E Y NATIONAL LABORATORY Comparing the Risk Profiles of Renewable and Natural Gas Electricity Contracts: A Summary of the California Department of Water Resources Contracts Devra Bachrach, Ryan Wiser, Mark Bolinger, and William Golove Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Rd., M S 90-4000 Berkeley, California 94720 Environmental Energy Technologies Division March 2003 Download from: http://eetd.lbl.gOv/ea/EMS/EMS_pubs.html#RE The work described in this study was funded by the Assistant Secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF0098. i

Purchasing power and related services: a window into customer preferences

Abstract End-users of electricity will soon be faced with opportunities to express their power purchase preferences in ways never before possible. Evidence from solicitations and negotiations to date indicates an interest in a diverse array of services.

The Impact of Retail Rate Structures on the Economics ofCustomer-Sited PV: A Study of Commercial Installations inCalifornia

We analyze the impact of retail rate design on the economics of grid-connected commercial photovoltaic (PV) systems in California. The analysis is based on 15-minute interval building load and PV production data for 24 commercial PV installations in California, spanning a diverse set of building load shapes and geographic locations. We derive the annual bill savings per kWh generated for each PV system, under each of 21 distinct retail rates currently offered by the five largest utilities in California. We identify and explain variation in the value of bill savings attributable to differences in the structure of demand and energy charges across rates, as well as variation attributable to other factors, such as the size of the PV system relative to building load, the specific shape of the PV production profile, and the customer load profile. We also identify the optimal rate for each customer, among those rates offered as alternatives to one another, and show how the decision is driven in large measure by the size of the PV system relative to building load. The findings reported here may be of value to regulators and utilities responsible for designing retail rates, as well as to customers and PV retailers who have a need to estimate the prospective bill savings of PV systems.

Revisiting the "Buy versus Build" decision for publicly owned utilities in California considering wind and geothermal resources

LBNL-48831 E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Revisiting the “Buy versus Build” Decision for Publicly Owned Utilities in California Considering Wind and Geothermal Resources Mark Bolinger, Ryan Wiser, and Bill Golove Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Rd., MS 90-4000 Berkeley, California 94720 Environmental Energy Technologies Division October 2001 Download from: http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP/ The work described in this study was funded by the Assistant Secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Power Technologies of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098.

Using Energy Information Systems (EIS): A Guidebook for the U.S. Postal Service

The U.S. Postal Service (Postal Service) recently installed Energy Information Systems (EIS) at 30 facilities in California. These systems integrate electric utility meter data acquisition hardware, software, and communication systems to collect, archive, analyze, and display whole-facility energy consumption data. At some point in the future, these systems could also be integrated with sub-meters that measure the electricity consumption of key end-use equipment. The purpose of this guidebook is to help Postal Service facility managers interpret and act upon energy data available from their EIS, translating the abundance of information these systems provide into knowledge that can be used to reduce energy use and costs. The guidebook first describes basic EIS capabilities and explains the data and reports that Postal Service EIS provide. It outlines a set of strategies for utilizing this information to improve operations and maintenance of building energy use equipment and for facilitating demand response. Finally, the guidebook offers suggestions on creating a routine for tracking and analyzing energy data and integrating this information into regular energy management activities.

Retail Choice Experiments: Comparing Early-AdopterExperience

This paper reviews the experience with retail choice of non-residential electricity customers during the period from early 1998 through the first few months of 2000. Key findings include: (1) customers in California received a significantly smaller discount from utility tariffs than customers in other competitive markets; (2) this sample of large commercial/industrial customers believed they were benefiting significantly more from commodity savings from contracts with retail electricity service providers (RESP) than from value-added services; and,(3) market rules appear to be critical to customer experiences with retail competition, yet the relationship between market rules and market development is inadequately understood.