William J. Luther

The Political Economy of Bitcoin

The recent proliferation of bitcoin has been a boon for users but might pose problems for governments. Indeed, some governments have already taken steps to ban or discourage the use of bitcoin. In a model with endogenous matching and random consumption preferences, we find multiple monetary equilibria including one in which bitcoin coexists with regular currency. We then identify the conditions under which government transactions policy might deter the use of bitcoin. We show that such a policy becomes more difficult if some users strictly prefer bitcoin because they can avoid other users holding currency in the matching process.

Bitcoin is Memory

We maintain that the crypto-currency bitcoin is a practical application of what is termed “memory” in the monetary economics literature. After reviewing the theoretical literature on money and memory, we offer a brief overview of the bitcoin protocol and argue that, like memory, bitcoin functions as a public record-keeping device. Finally, we provide evidence that — in line with the standard theoretical account of memory — bitcoin use has soared as the expected cost of storing traditional monies increased.

Friedman Versus Hayek on Private Outside Monies: New Evidence for the Debate

Friedrich Hayek is often credited with the resurgence of interest in alternative monetary systems. His own proposal, however, received sharp criticism from Milton Friedman, Stanley Fischer, and others at the outset and never gained much support among academic economists or the wider population. According to Friedman, Hayek erred in believing that the mere admission of competing private currencies will spontaneously generate a more stable monetary system. In Friedman’s view, network effects and switching costs discourage an alternative system from emerging in general and prevent Hayek’s system from functioning as desired in particular. I offer new evidence provided by recent events in Somalia as support for Friedman’s initial doubts.

Positively Valued Fiat Money after the Sovereign Disappears: The Case of Somalia

The case of the Somali shilling defies the historical view that sovereign powers (i.e., legal tender status, public receivability) are necessary to explain the acceptance of fiat money at a positive value. Following the Somali state’s collapse in 1991, irredeemable paper shillings have continued to circulate at a positive value. Acceptance under statelessness is explained by a history that made continued acceptance a focal point among self-fulfilling strategies. Our explanation is consistent with an extended Kiyotaki-Wright model of fiat money. Although sovereign power may be necessary to launch a fiat money in practice, we maintain that it is not necessary for its survival.

The Great Recession and its Aftermath from a Monetary Equilibrium Theory Perspective

The Global Financial Crisis is a unique investigation into the causes of the most savage economic downturn experienced since the Great Depression. Employing wide and divergent perspectives – which are themselves critically examined – this study analyses the measures that have been taken to restore our economies to acceptable rates of unemployment and growth.

The Ordinary Economics of an Extraordinary Crisis

The authors offer perspective on the world financial crisis. Specifically, they claim it was a perfect storm of policy errors that caused the housing bubble and then perpetuated the recovery period into an over-extended recession.

An Empirical Analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

The Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich A. Hayek developed a unique theory of the business cycle. In their view, an unsustainable boom ensues when the rate of interest prevailing in the market falls below the natural rate. The boom is characterized not only by an increase in aggregate production but also by a distortion of the structure of production. Similarly, the recession that follows is characterized by a decline in aggregate production as the structure of production is repaired. Hence, the Austrian account of macroeconomic fluctuation stresses the misallocation and reallocation of resources in addition to the overproduction and underproduction of more conventional business cycle theories. In a recent article, Lester and Wolff (Review of Austrian Economics 26(4):433–461, 2013) attempt to consider the empirical relevance of the Austrian view. We argue that the authors’ use of the federal funds rate as an indicator of monetary policy is inappropriate in that it fails to distinguish a low market interest rate from a market interest rate that is low relative to the natural rate. Using an estimate of the natural rate provided by Selgin et al. (2011), we attempt to improve upon their analysis.

Bitcoin and the Bailout

On March 16, 2013, Cyprus announced that it would accept a bailout that required imposing a one-time levy on bank deposits. It has been argued that, by making traditional deposit accounts seem less secure, the bailout announcement prompted some to consider—or reconsider—using the cryptocurrency bitcoin. Relying on rank data for a subset of apps, existing studies maintain that interest in bitcoin increased following the announcement, especially in countries with troubled banks. We argue that (1) focusing on a subset of apps does not allow one to distinguish a general increase in the demand for bitcoin apps from a substitution between bitcoin apps and (2) changes in rank data are a poor predictor of changes in the number of downloads. In order to address these concerns, we collect rank data for all fifteen bitcoin apps available at the time and use an established technique to estimate an index of downloads for each country considered. We find that, while downloads of bitcoin apps increased following the announcement, the observed effect was not especially pronounced in countries thought to have had troubled banking systems at the time.

The Monetary Mechanism of Stateless Somalia

A peculiar monetary institution emerged during the period of interregnum in Somalia from January 1991 to August 2012. Without a functioning government to restrict the supply of notes in circulation, Somalis found it profitable to contract with foreign printers and import forgeries. The exchange value of the largest denomination Somali shillings note fell from US

Can Bitcoin Become a Major Currency

0.30 in 1991 to US