William Lavely

The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline

Education and urbanization are shown to have been negatively correlated to marital fertility in both urban and rural China prior to the initiation of the substantial family planning programs. We maintain that early use of contraception by better educated and urban strata is a plausible cause of the observed fertility differentials because other proximate variables are unlikely. Coale’s m, a presumed indicator of controlled fertility, suggests early fertility control in urban and better educated strata. The apparent preprogram beginnings of fertility control among educational and urban elites does not, however, minimize the awesome effects on fertility of the powerful Chinese family planning programs, once begun.

The rise in female education in China: national and regional patterns.

This paper utilizes [Chinese] census and survey data to describe change in female education nationally and for four major regional populations from 1952 to 1982. Because it is plausible that the educational trends and differentials are related to other aspects of Chinese social political and economic history they are presented here in some detail....[The authors] consider the history of gender equality in educational opportunity as reflected in educational progression ratios [and]....introduce as a demonstration of the significance of female education education-specific rates of marriage and fertility. (EXCERPT)

Revising the Malthusian narrative: the comparative study of population dynamics in late imperial China.

Ever since Malthus it has become common practice to perceive Chinese and European pre-industrial demographic systems as opposing archetypes. Europes system was characterized by moderate population growth fertility control keyed to economic conditions and favorable living standards. However China had rapid growth periodic mortality crises and a precarious balance of population and resources. While there is some variation in the approaches and vocabularies which reflect disciplinary divisions and recognition of the variability of institutions within Europe and China the contrast persists in the demographic and historical literatures. The continued existence of this contrast is important because Malthusian dynamics underlie a popular and persuasive set of explanations for the divergent paths of Chinese and European economies and societies of the industrial era. Drawing upon both old and new evidence upon demography and economy in late imperial times the authors challenge the conventional dichotomy and its empirical underpinnings.

Local Area Variations in Reproductive Behaviour in the People's Republic of China, 1973–1982

Chinas spectacular fertility decline and awesomely powerful family planning program have been well documented at the national and provincial levels. This paper provides systematic data at the community level for 4 provinces based on the 1/1000 Fertility Survey. It demonstrates considerable local variability in reproductive behavior among production brigades. This is true not only for fertility contraception and nuptiality but also for such program-related variables as the 1-child certificate rate. That rate a possible proxy for program effort correlates with fertility for several provinces considered. The paper also shows that the educational level of the community has a macro-effect independent of the education of the individual women. The distance of the production brigade from a large city is also shown to have a negative relationship to fertility net of its relationship to educational levels. (authors)

Chinese demography: the state of the field.

This paper reviews the developments in Chinese demography a field which as recently as a decade ago was virtually non-existent. The anti-intellectual climate that pervaded China up until the late 1970s discouraged demographic research; what little information existed was kept secret. But following the adoption of economic pragmatism and empiricism in 1978 the Chinese government began to modernize its demographic data collection apparatus established new institutions for training and research and made public a broad range of demographic information. Demographic publications have increased dramatically. The paper discusses the institutional growth of Chinese demography mentioning the state agencies that have taken the lead in demographic research. The paper then examines contemporary Chinese demography. New data such as the 1982 census and fertility survey as well as the releases of historical population records have resulted in a very accurate picture of Chinese demography. There is now a clear understanding of changes in population size fertility mortality and migration. The paper also reviews new advances in historical demography also fueled by the release of data. The authors then discuss the progress and implications of current demographic research especially as they apply to 3 disciplines: geography anthropology and sociology. Finally the authors conclude with an assessment of recent explanations of the Chinese fertility decline and their implications for understanding the relationship between the state and society in China.

Age patterns of Chinese marital fertility, 1950-1981.

Coale and Trussell’s model of marital fertility is used to analyze data from China’s National One-per-Thousand Fertility Survey. Rural China experienced a regime of natural fertility until 1970, after which levels of fertility control rose with unprecedented speed and with an age pattern starkly dissimilar from that observed in other populations. Urban marital fertility was apparently under a modest level of deliberate control in the 1950s, with a sustained rise in control beginning in 1963. Natural fertility was low relative to other populations, with the urban level exceeding the rural.

Sex preference for children in a Meifu Li community in Hainan, China

Sex preferences for children are contingent on institutional and economic contexts, including family system. While the patrilineal joint family system of the Han Chinese tends to devalue daughters, the family systems of many of Chinas southern minorities are conducive to female autonomy and more equal sex preferences. The Li of Hainan Island provide an example. We examined household registers and surveyed women in a relatively isolated highland township inhabited by the Meifu, a Li sub-group. The Meifu depend largely on swidden agriculture, permit considerable sexual freedom to adolescent females, and, as expected, have more equal sex ratios among their children than other Hainan populations. There was a tendency for a preference for males in the one hamlet in the community with an exceptional endowment of irrigated land, suggesting that sex preferences are sensitive to local economic circumstances.

Rural Economy and Male Marriage in China: Jurong, Jiangsu 1933

This article examines the relationship between economic and socio-demographic variables and male marriage patterns in 144 rural villages of Jurong county, Jiangsu province, China, in 1933. While marriage for females is young and universal, the incidence of male marriage varies greatly across villages, a variability that is consistent with an economic view of marriage. Marriage is associated with farm ownership, land quality and male literacy. The demographic context, as measured by the sex ratio of the marriageable population, is also important. High sex ratios in Jurong produce a chronic marriage squeeze for males. These ratios also correspond to the economic conditions of a locale.

Local Area Variations in Reproductive Behavior in China, 1973–1982

China’s spectacular fertility decline has been documented at the national and provincial levels, as has its unique and effective family planning program (Coale 1984; Feeney and Yu 1986; Poston and Gu 1987). Below the provincial level, however, we know relatively little on a systematic basis about reproductive behavior, and for China’s rural villages and urban neighborhoods we have only scattered and occasional reports.