William Page

Long-term metals forecasting: The track record: 1910–1964☆

Abstract In 90 forecasts published in journals, about 70% of the individual predictions proved correct; partly because they were fairly vague. However, two major reports dealing with long-term metals forecasting were much less accurate. Unexpectedly high rates of economic growth and technological change (since 1952) contributed to the Paley Commissions inaccuracy; whereas the failure of expected developments to occur (after 1964) upset the predictions of Resources in Americas Future .

3. The non-renewable resources sub-system

Abstract Natural resource exhaustion combined with increasing extraction costs are a major assumption in the World 3 model and play an important role in many of the collapse modes. This sub-system is described and the strengths and weaknesses of its assumptions are assessed in the light of a more optimistic attitude towards technological improvement and the effects of economic and social pressures.

11. Population forecasting

Abstract Forecasts of future trends in population are as central to the contemporary pessimism about the future as they were to that of certain classical economists at the beginning of the 19th century. Here earlier forecasts are examined to see how the methodology has changed and if past performance justifies the placing of much confidence in contemporary forecasts. The emphasis is upon British and American experience and upon total population sizes (rather than age or sex breakdowns). A concluding section raises the question of todays world population situation and the context of The Limits to Growth population considerations.

The Accuracy of Long-term Forecasts for Non-Ferrous Metals

Investment projects in the mining and smelting industries generally have long time horizons, in that five to ten years may pass between initiating an exploration project and having a mine come into production. Thus the industry has a strong interest in looking ahead at future production capacities and technologies and at the market for its products. However, the industry has the problem of desiring good medium- and long-term forecasts while, it seems, being sceptical of the possibility of ever being able to obtain them —a good forecast being, in this context, one which presents a fairly accurate picture of the environment in which the particular company, nation or other group will be operating, so that its own planning can be on a sound footing.

Conservation policies and copper in the UK

Abstract In recent years, there have been several calls for a UK government policy towards materials. This paper takes some proposals regarding conservation, and applies them to the UK copper-using industries. The main conclusions are that consumption is likely to decline anyway over the next ten years, but government attempts to influence the trend are likely to have little real effect — or else will be very costly, in money and other terms.

UK balance of payments in raw materials: A statistical analysis with implications for possible national materials policies

Abstract The author discusses the concept of a national materials policy for the UK and focuses on the implications for such a policy to be derived from analysis of the UK balance of payments. The position of materials in the overall trade balance, the role of individual commodities, the form of metal imports and the sources of supplies are all examined statistically to consider what are the major trends in materials trade.

Mining and development : Are they compatible in South America?

Abstract Taking issue with the view that mining as an activity is necessarily beneficial to Third World countries, the author examines experience in South America. Possible non-beneficial aspects of mining in a developing country include its high capital intensiveness — when capital is liable to be scarce and unemployment high — and the potential for small but powerful groups, such as miners, to exercise a disproportionate influence on the political and economic life of the country. Furthermore, working conditions in many South American mines are extremely poor. Ways must be found to develop mining techniques more appropriate to developing countries.

4. The population sub-system

Abstract The overall behaviour of the World 3 model is not highly sensitive to the behaviour of the population sub-system. This is divided into two parts, fertility and mortality, and each are examined here as being important in their own right, although the fact that many of the relationships could be subject to policy decisions is noted as a major problem in building the model.