Howard Rush

Microelectronics, industry, and the third world☆

Abstract As microelectronics revolutionises production in the developed countries, the traditional export successes of the Third world (eg garments and electronics) are threatened. That trade, which has grown rapidly in the past decade, relies heavily on the comparative advantage of low-wage high-skill labour. People are flexible—they can learn new skills and adapt to new fashions. But microprocessors are eroding that advantage. The newly industrialised countries, in particular, may be able to respond by competing in a wider range of exports. However, there is an urgent need for government intervention to ensure that the less developed countries acquire the software capabilities needed to make full use of the new technology.

Long-term metals forecasting: The track record: 1910–1964☆

Abstract In 90 forecasts published in journals, about 70% of the individual predictions proved correct; partly because they were fairly vague. However, two major reports dealing with long-term metals forecasting were much less accurate. Unexpectedly high rates of economic growth and technological change (since 1952) contributed to the Paley Commissions inaccuracy; whereas the failure of expected developments to occur (after 1964) upset the predictions of Resources in Americas Future .

The advanced gas-cooled reactor: A case study in reactor choice

High costs and extremely long and expensive R & D programmes have led to extensive involvement by governments in decisions concerning nuclear reactors. The authors examine the decision-making processes of the British nuclear industry, looking in particular at the history of the Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR). They conclude that both the institutional framework in which the decision was made and the decision itself give cause for concern. In particular the lack of public discussion and the dual role of the UKAEA as both prototype developer and technical adviser to the government make objective judgement difficult

Agriculture in the EEC taking stock

Abstract The focus of this assessment is the European Communitys ‘Stocktaking of the Common Agricultural Policy’. While the CAP has attracted considerable scrutiny and controversy, the Stocktaking represents the most authoritative review of agricultural policy from within the EEC bureaucracy. The authors evaluate first the extent to which the Stocktakings own analysis is a fair reflection of achievements under the objectives which the CAP has set for itself. Second, they ask whether the proposals for policy reform advocated in the Stocktaking are appropriate. They conclude that the Stocktakings proposals — and their subsequent interpretation within the EEC — are not adequate to tackle the problems facing EEC agriculture.

World food futures -- growth with redistribution?

Abstract The authors contend that the world has the capacity to support both the present population and any likely increase in population, relatively comfortably for at least the next 100 years. Although millions are malnourished today, world food production is sufficient to feed them, and problems in distribution are the cause of their misfortune. The reasons behind this paradox are examined in the context of the world futures debate, and some implications for policy are suggested. As Gross National Product rises, the poorest nations and income groups within nations need protection against ever-increasing demand for food by wealthier groups.

Shadows on the Seventies: Indicative World Plan, the Protein Gap, and the Green Revolution

Use of the term ‘forecasting’ suggests a well-defined and deliberate exercise. Food forecasting has not always followed that mode and it is difficult to separate attempts at rational planning from actual forecasts. In the 1930s the League of Nations had set up a committee (League of Nations, 1935) to study the causes of food shortages and to make recommendations. After the Second World War the UN carried on this activity, first through WHO, then after the creation of FAO in 1947, by joint action of these agencies. FAO collected information on population and food production, WHO laid down requirements for adequate nutrition, and together they attempted to calculate what would be required. This latter activity can be described as forecasting. We have described elsewhere (Marstrand and Rush, 1978) the difficulties encountered and the reasons for the estimates being too high. These criticisms in no way detract from the good intentions of the agencies in attempting to find out the extent of what was then believed to be a worldwide shortfall in the supply of food and the quantities required to meet it. Without their work the surprising fact of an overall sufficiency of food would never have emerged.

The Accuracy of Long-term Forecasts for Non-Ferrous Metals

Investment projects in the mining and smelting industries generally have long time horizons, in that five to ten years may pass between initiating an exploration project and having a mine come into production. Thus the industry has a strong interest in looking ahead at future production capacities and technologies and at the market for its products. However, the industry has the problem of desiring good medium- and long-term forecasts while, it seems, being sceptical of the possibility of ever being able to obtain them —a good forecast being, in this context, one which presents a fairly accurate picture of the environment in which the particular company, nation or other group will be operating, so that its own planning can be on a sound footing.

Techno-Economic Paradigms: Developing Innovation Capability: Meeting the Policy Challenge

The challenge of innovation is clear – if businesses fail to change what they offer or the ways in which they create and deliver those offerings (product and process innovation), they risk being outpaced in an increasingly competitive global environment. Even those with the capacity to innovate their products and processes risk challenge from others with alternative business models or marketing propositions. So innovation is important – but the key issue is not in the innovation itself, but rather the capability within the organization to repeat the trick, to produce a continuing stream of innovation in a dynamic and shifting environment.

Knowledge intensive agriculture: The need for science in labour intensive agriculture

Abstract The authors argue that a stronger scientific base is needed for agriculture in low-latitude areas of the world. Northern agricultural methods are not adequate in warmer climates and research is needed to find appropriate farming techniques and tools. At the same time, redistribution of land and water supplies (and a political structure to prevent their being consolidated again in the hands of a few) are necessary so that the increased production goes to those who need it.