William R. Travis

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient

All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

Ranchland Ownership Change in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, 1990–2001: Implications for Conservation

Most of the public lands protected for conservation in the western United States are surrounded by working landscapes of various types, typically in agro-pastoral ownership and use. How these working landscapes evolve over time and how their inhabitants respond to various conservation goals will in large measure determine the success or failure of efforts to maintain regional biodiversity. This article contributes to a better understanding of ecological threat on the important private lands of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem by suggesting the ways in which changes in ranch ownership become conservation opportunities or challenges. Relying on a combination of real estate sales data, land ownership data, and interviews with key informants, we assess trends and patterns of ownership change around Yellowstone National Park. The main ranchland dynamic in this region involves the transition from traditional ranchers, typically full-time livestock producers, to a more diverse cohort of landowners, including absentee owners focused on amenity or conservation values in addition to, or instead of, livestock production. We present a conceptual model for distinguishing between different ranch landscapes and discuss some of the conservation implications of these geographical patterns.

Ranchland Ownership Dynamics in the Rocky Mountain West

Abstract We examine the rate of ranch sales and the nature of ranchland ownership change in the Rocky Mountain region. Interest in this phenomenon is high because ranches represent the largest parcels of private open space and relatively natural landscapes in the West and because anecdote, media coverage, and testimony from range professionals suggest that a significant turnover in ranch ownership is underway. Ranch sales activity is of special interest to groups seeking to conserve both ranchlands as habitat and ranching as part of the regional economy and culture. Very little work has been conducted on ranchland ownership per se, although we were able to build on studies of ranchland prices and on surveys that included some questions relating to operational goals, tenure, and future plans. The literature also offers a foundation for a ranch ownership typology. We tracked sales of ranch properties of 400 or more acres in 3 Rocky Mountain counties for the period 1990–2001, finding turnover (sale) rates from 14% to 45%. With help from local real estate agents, appraisers, and county officials, we classified ranch buyers according to a simple typology and found that the majority of acres sold (54%) went to “amenity buyers,” and 62% of acres sold went to out-of-state buyers. This 12-year slice of ranch sales suggests a significant ranchland ownership transition to a new type of owner is, indeed, underway in the Rockies.

Summary for Decision Makers

Natural climate variability is a prominent factor that affects many aspects of life, livelihoods, landscapes, and decision-making across the Southwestern U.S. (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah; included are the adjacent United States-Mexico border and Southwest Native Nations land). These natural fluctuations have caused droughts, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, heavy snow falls, severe winds, intense storms, the battering of coastal areas, and acute air-quality conditions. And as a region that has experienced—within the relatively short time span of several decades—rapid increases in human population (Figure 1.1), significant alterations in land use and land cover, limits on the supplies of water, long-term drought, and other climatic changes, the Southwest can be considered to be one of the most “climate-challenged” regions of North America. This document summarizes current understanding of climate variability, climate change, climate impacts, and possible solution choices for the climate challenge, all issues that are covered in greater depth in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States.i

The Changing Southwest

This chapter describes important geographical and socio-economic characteristics and trends in the Southwest—such as population and economic growth and changes in land ownership, land use, and land cover—that provide the context for how climate change will likely affect the Southwest. The chapter also describes key laws and institutions relevant to adaptive management of resources.

The effect of rate of change, variability, and extreme events on the pace of adaptation to a changing climate

When is it time to adopt different technologies, management strategies, and resource use practices as underlying climate change occurs? We apply risk and decision analysis to test hypotheses about the timing and pace of adaption in response to different profiles of climate change and extremes expressed as yield and income variation for a simulated dryland wheat farm in the United States Great Plains. Climate scenarios include gradual change with typical or increased noise (standard deviation), rapid and large change, and gradual change with extreme events stepped through the simulation. We test decision strategies that might logically be utilized by farmers facing a climate trend that worsens crop enterprise outcomes. Adaptation quickens with the rate of change, especially for decision strategies based on performance thresholds, but is delayed by larger climate variability, especially for decision strategies based on recognizing growing differential between adaptive and non-adaptive performance. Extreme events evoke adaptation sooner than gradual change alone, and in some scenarios extremes evoke premature, inefficient, adaptation.

Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate

The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region of the USA—which comprises Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska—is a largely rural area that provides numerous ecosystem services, including livestock products, cultural services, and conservation of biological diversity. The region contains 25% of the Nation’s beef cattle and approximately one-third of the confined beef cattle, as well as the largest remaining native prairie in the US—the Northern Mixedgrass Prairie. With rising atmospheric CO2, the NGP is projected to experience warmer and longer growing seasons, greater climatic variability, and more extreme events (e.g., increased occurrence of large precipitation events). These climatic changes may affect livestock production both directly via physiological impacts on animals and indirectly via modifications to forage, invasion of undesirable plants, and increased exposure to parasites. This raises concerns about the vulnerability of grazing livestock operations and confined livestock operations to projected changes in mid- (2050) and late- (2085) twenty-first century climate. Our objectives are to (1) describe the NGP’s exposure to temperature and precipitation trends, inter-annual variability, and extreme events; (2) evaluate the sensitivity of beef cattle production to direct and indirect effects imposed by these projected climatic changes; and (3) provide a typology of adaptation strategies to minimize adverse consequences of projected changes and maximize beneficial consequences. Agricultural managers have developed considerable adaptive capacity to contend with environmental and economic variability. However, projected climatic changes, especially the increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, will require even greater adaptive capacity to maintain viable production systems. Consequently, regional vulnerability to projected climatic changes will be determined not only by ecological responses but also by the adaptive capacity of individual managers. Adaptive capacity in the NGP will differ from other regions, in part because projections suggest some opportunities for increased livestock production. Adaptations in both grazing and confined beef cattle systems will require enhanced decision-making skills capable of integrating biophysical, social, and economic considerations. Social learning networks that support integration of experimental and experiential knowledge—such as lessons learned from early adopters and involvement with science-based organizations—can help enhance decision-making and climate adaptation planning. Many adaptations have already been implemented by a subset of producers in this region, providing opportunities for assessment, further development, and greater adoption. Context-specific decision-making can also be enhanced through science-management partnerships, which aim to build adaptive capacity that recognizes multiple production and conservation/environmental goals.

Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies

Adaptations in infrastructure may be necessitated by changes in temperature and precipitation patterns to avoid losses and maintain expected levels of service. A roster of adaptation strategies has emerged in the climate change literature, especially with regard to timing: anticipatory, concurrent, or reactive. Significant progress has been made in studying climate change adaptation decision making that incorporates uncertainty, but less work has examined how strategies interact with existing infrastructure characteristics to influence adaptability. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossings configured with a selection of actual culvert emplacements in Colorado, USA, to examine the effect of adaptation strategy and culvert characteristics on cost efficiency and service level under varying rates of climate change. A meta-model approach with multinomial regression is used to compare the value of better climate change predictions with better knowledge of existing crossing characteristics. We find that, for a distributed system of infrastructural units like culverts, knowing more about existing characteristics can improve the efficacy of adaptation strategies more than better projections of climate change. Transportation departments choosing climate adaptation strategies often lack detailed data on culverts, and gathering that data could improve the efficiency of adaptation despite climate uncertainty.

Robert W. Kates (1929–2018): Grappled with problems of the human environment

Robert W. Kates died April 21, 2018, at age 89, a geographer who studied the relationship between society and environment and whose commitment to collaborative science kept his colleagues busy with big questions, big projects, and the challenge of fixing problems imbricated in the human use and transformation of the Earth. Robert W. Kates, independent scholar, at his home in Maine. Image courtesy of Dennis Chinoy (photographer). Schooled in Brooklyn, but doubting an academic life, Bob eschewed college and moved with wife Eleanor (Hackman) Kates in 1949 to Gary, Indiana, where he worked in the steel mills for over a decade and where Bob and Eleanor started a family. Thinking of becoming a teacher, Bob took time out from union organizing to take night classes at the Gary Campus of the University of Indiana in 1958. Martha Church, a doctorate student in geography at the University of Chicago—later to become president of Hood College—taught one of those classes, recognized Bob’s scientific talents, and introduced him to Gilbert White, chair of the University of Chicago’s Department of Geography. This encounter started a lifelong collaboration and friendship, and the longest-running of Bob’s life’s many projects: to understand the human response to natural extremes. As with other big questions, Bob pursued this as a group endeavor, with Gilbert, fellow doctorate student Ian Burton, and a host of others still occupied in the effort today. The challenge for the field of natural hazards, codified in their 1978 book The Environment … [↵][1]1Email: william.travis{at}colorado.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Regional Climate Response Collaboratives: Multi-institutional Support for Climate Resilience

AbstractFederal investments by U.S. agencies to enhance climate resilience at regional scales grew over the past decade (2010s). To maximize efficiency and effectiveness in serving multiple sectors and scales, it has become critical to leverage existing agency-specific research, infrastructure, and capacity while avoiding redundancy. We discuss lessons learned from a multi-institutional “regional climate response collaborative” that comprises three different federally-supported climate service entities in the Rocky Mountain west and northern plains region. These lessons include leveraging different strengths of each partner, creating deliberate mechanisms to increase cross-entity communication and joint ownership of projects, and placing a common priority on stakeholder-relevant research and outcomes. We share the conditions that fostered successful collaboration, which can be transferred elsewhere, and suggest mechanisms for overcoming potential barriers. Synergies are essential for producing actionable ...