William S. Parkin

Introducing the United States Extremis Crime Database (ECDB)

This note describes a new and unique, open source, relational database called the United States Extremist Crime Database (ECDB). We first explain how the ECDB was created and outline its distinguishing features in terms of inclusion criteria and assessment of ideological commitment. Second, the article discusses issues related to the evaluation of the ECDB, such as reliability and selectivity. Third, descriptive results are provided to illustrate the contributions that the ECDB can make to research on terrorism and criminology.

Ideological Victimization Homicides Perpetrated by Far-Right Extremists

This study examines homicide victimization during acts of far-right ideologically motivated violence. Focusing on victims of extremist violence in the United States, we compare ideological homicide victims to prior homicide research to determine whether ideological victims are similar to “routine” homicide victims. In addition, ideological victims were broken into four categories to determine whether differences between these victimization groups exist. The results of the study found that ideological victimization is a unique phenomenon, as differences were found between the victims of far-right ideologically motivated homicides and prior homicide victimization research, as well as differences between distinct types of ideological victims.

Open-Source Data and the Study of Homicide

To date, no discussion has taken place in the social sciences as to the appropriateness of using open-source data to augment, or replace, official data sources in homicide research. The purpose of this article is to examine whether open-source data have the potential to be used as a valid and reliable data source in testing theory and studying homicide. Official and open-source homicide data were collected as a case study in a single jurisdiction over a 1-year period. The data sets were compared to determine whether open-sources could recreate the population of homicides and variable responses collected in official data. Open-source data were able to replicate the population of homicides identified in the official data. Also, for every variable measured, the open-sources captured as much, or more, of the information presented in the official data. Also, variables not available in official data, but potentially useful for testing theory, were identified in open-sources. The results of the case study show that open-source data are potentially as effective as official data in identifying individual- and situational-level characteristics, provide access to variables not found in official homicide data, and offer geographic data that can be used to link macro-level characteristics to homicide events.

Terrorism in the News: The Efficiency and Impact of Sampling Methods on Data Collection and Content Analysis

ABSTRACT This study identifies the most efficient methodology for sampling from a population of New York Times articles related to terrorism, which were generated through keyword searching. Efficiency was based on which sample statistic was closest to the population parameters of interest. The smallest sample size, where 68 percent of the sample statistics were within one standard deviation of the population mean and 95 percent of the sample statistics were within two standard deviations of the population mean, were identified as the most efficient. In addition, we determine whether the frequency of news articles is correlated to the temporal distribution of terrorist incidents found in the Global Terrorism Database, which could possibly be utilized to more efficiently sample from the population. Our findings confirm prior research that shows that sampling efficiency is related to the weekly news cycle and, contrary to prior research, the sample must include between 20 to 29 constructed weeks to achieve representativeness of an entire year of coverage for a population generated through keyword searches. In addition, the study also found that there was a limited relationship between the frequency of terrorist incidents and the amount of terrorism coverage in the news.

Comparing Extremist Perpetrators of Suicide and Non-Suicide Attacks in the United States

ABSTRACT This study explores differences in perpetrators of suicide attacks and non-suicide attacks in the United States. The study uses data on far-right and Al Qaeda and affiliated/inspired terrorists between 1990 and 2013 from the United States Extremist Crime Database. Our analysis estimates logistic regression models to test whether suicide attackers were more likely to have exhibited specific risk factors for suicidality, while examining other prominent claims regarding patterns of suicide terrorism. Suicide attackers were no more likely than non-suicide attackers to have previously attempted suicide or to have been diagnosed as mentally ill. Suicide attackers were more likely, though, to have a history of substance abuse, to be loners, have served in the military, participated in paramilitary training, and be more ideologically committed to the cause. We found that Al Qaeda affiliated/inspired attackers were more likely than far-right attackers to have engaged in a suicide mission. With the current focus on Americans traveling to Syria and Iraq to receive training and fight for jihadist movements (e.g., the Islamic State), our findings appear relevant. Observers have expressed concern that these fighters may return and then commit attacks in their homeland. Law enforcement could make use of this study’s findings.

Extremist Violence From the Fatherland to the Homeland: A Comparison of Far-Right Homicide in Germany and the United States

The creation of open-source terrorist and extremist crime databases has led to a more complete understanding of violence committed by members of the extreme far-right movement in the United States. Yet, important questions remain about how serious forms of extremist violence in the United States compare with far-right violence in other nations, which are also facing this type of threat to homeland security. The current study draws from structured action theory of extremist violence and extends an open-source methodology for the purposes of making cross-national comparisons of incident-, offender-, and victim-level characteristics of extreme far-right homicide in the United States and Germany. Despite some similarities, such as in offender race, legal outcomes, and places where homicides occurred, we find several key differences in the nature of extreme far-right homicide across these two countries. In particular, we find differences in geographic and temporal patterns as well as offender and victim demographic and background characteristics. We conclude our study by considering how the unique social, political, and economic contexts of the United States and Germany over the last 25 years serve to shape our findings.

Tea Party Mobilization and Power Devaluation

This article empirically tests Power Devaluation Theory on the American Tea Party movement, a contemporary right-wing nationalistic movement motivated by identity politics. The relationship between Tea Party mobilization and power devaluation in economic, political, and status-based markets is examined through a logistic regression analysis that utilizes data from open-source materials and official sources. The analysis partially supports Power Devaluation Theory, finding that specific demographic and theoretical variables that measure potential pools of Tea Party supporters have the ability to significantly predict the odds of mobilization in the direction hypothesized by the theory.

Primed for death: Law enforcement-citizen homicides, social media, and retaliatory violence

We examine whether retaliatory violence exists between law enforcement and citizens while controlling for any social media contagion effect related to prior fatal encounters. Analyzed using a trivariate dynamic structural vector-autoregressive model, daily time-series data over a 21-month period captured the frequencies of police killed in the line of duty, police deadly use of force incidents, and social media coverage. The results support a significant retaliatory violence effect against minorities by police, yet there is no evidence of retaliatory violence against law enforcement officers by minorities. Also, social media coverage of the Black Lives Matter movement increases the risk of fatal victimization to both law enforcement officers and minorities. Possible explanations for these results are based in rational choice and terror management theories.

A Situated Comparison of Suicide and Non-Suicide Terrorist Plots and Homicides in the United States, 1990-2014

This study compares suicide and non-suicide incidents in the United States by analyzing data from the U.S. Extremist Crime Database (ECDB) on terrorist incidents committed by extreme far-right (FR) and radical Islamic terrorists between 1990 and 2014. Drawing from Situational Crime Prevention (SCP), we investigate whether suicide incidents are more likely than non-suicide incidents to be directed at secure targets and to utilize firearms. Findings reveal that suicide terrorism is significantly more likely to be committed against secure targets and similarly likely to involve the use of firearms in comparison with non-suicide terrorism. In addition, suicide terrorism is more likely to be committed by lone actors, radical Islamic terrorists, and result in fatalities. Implications for terrorism prevention are discussed.