Wilson Fadlo Curi

Implicit Stochastic Optimization for deriving reservoir operating rules in semiarid Brazil

This paper deals with the application of Implicit Stochastic Optimization (ISO) to determine monthly operating rules for a reservoir system located in the semiarid Northeast of Brazil. ISO employs a deterministic optimization model to find optimal reservoir allocations under several possible inflow scenarios and later constructs the rules by analyzing the ensemble of these optimal releases. The operating policies provide the monthly reservoir release conditioned on the storage at the beginning of the month and the inflow predicted for the month. In addition to the classical regression analysis, this study establishes the rules by a two-dimensional interpolation strategy. After the rules are identified, they are applied to operate the system under new inflow realizations and show ability to produce policies similar to those obtained by deterministic optimization taking the same inflows as perfect forecasts.

Proposta e validação de indicadores hidroambientais para bacias hidrográficas: estudo de caso na sub-bacia do alto curso do Rio Paraíba, PB

Among the ways to subsidize a water resources management, capable of contribute to the pursuit of sustainable development, have the tools appropriate to measure the performance of water systems and environmental issues. In this context, and amid a variety of measurement systems hydro-environmental existing sustainability, this proposal was drafted, composed of 51 indicators, with the objective of verifying the level of hydro-environmental sustainability of municipalities in the sub-basin of the Upper Course of the River Paraiba, PB. The methodology consisted of an exploratory research and documentary, in which he made use of descriptive statistics. The results suggest that municipalities with hydro-environmental best performances were: Boqueirao, Monteiro, Sume, Ouro Velho and Serra Branca. At another point the municipalities with the worst performance were: Prata, Coxixola, Congo, Sao Joao do Cariri, Camalau, Sao Domingos do Cariri, Zabele, Cabaceiras, Barra de Sao Miguel, Sao Sebastiao do Umbuzeiro, Amparo e Sao Joao do Tigre. These results demonstrate the need for defining water management programs that can reverse this scenario instability through more responsible actions by entities regulators of water management and other professional associations in the state Paraiba and especially in sub-basin studied.

Construção de um índice de sustentabilidade hidro-ambiental através da análise multicritério: estudo em municípios paraibanos

The present study focuses on establishing a methodology based on the use of multicriteria analysis can identify the situation of hydro environmental Paraiba municipalities. The methodological procedures adopted in the research were as follows: applied research, exploratory and descriptive literature and documents, with a quantitative nature. The sample was composed of 15 municipalities, of a total population of 19 cities located in the sub basin of the middle course of the river Paraiba, PB. The order obtained by the proposed high lights the distinction between cities more sustainable and less on the issue hydro environmental. The best positions in the ranking were obtained by the cities of Campina Grande, Boqueirao, Riacho de Santo Antonio, Pocinhos, Queimadas, Puxinana and Montadas. The worst performances were obtained by the cities of Aroeiras, Boa Vista, Barra de Santana, Barra de Sao Miguel, Umbuzeiro, Fagundes, Natuba and Itatuba. The contribution of this paper is configured as important tools that can be used by public administration in search of better target their investment actions in contexts that require more attention and discussion by all social and institutional actors.

Metodologia para avaliar a saúde ambiental: uma aplicação em municípios empregando a análise multicriterial

Atualmente sao observadas muitas maneiras de abordar a complexidade dos aspectos relacionados a saude publica. Uma delas e a relacao entre os seres humanos e o meio ambiente, especificamente atraves de indicadores de saude ambiental. Dessa forma, o presente estudo objetiva propor uma metodologia baseada em indicadores de saude ambiental e analise multicriterio no intuito de analisar a situacao da saude em cidades, permitindo comparar dados ambientais entre municipalidades que integram a Regiao do Alto Curso do Rio Paraiba. Para tanto, fez-se o uso da pesquisa documental e exploratoria e da analise multicriterial. Os municipios de Sao Domingos do Cariri foram os que apresentaram o menor Indicador Multicriterio de Saude Ambiental, seguido dos municipios de Amparo, Zabele, Sao Joao do Tigre, Congo, Coxixola, Sao Sebastiao do Umbuzeiro, Barra de Sao Miguel, Cabaceiras, Camalau, Ouro Velho e Sao Joao do Cariri ja que estes municipios apresentaram Indicador Multicriterio de Saude Ambiental (IMSA) negativo, ou seja, que necessitam de melhores estrategias de gestao publica no intuito de melhorar esse cenario. Por sua vez, as cidades com melhores desempenhos, IMSA positivos foram: Monteiro, Boqueirao, Sume, Serra Branca e Prata.

Reativação do perímetro irrigado de Gravatá: uma abordagem otimizante sobre agricultura irrigada e sustentabilidade hídrica

This work is concerned with the possibility of reactivation of Irrigated Perimeter of Gravata, with potential land availability of 934 ha, which is located at Pianco river basin in the southern part of Paraiba State. To perform the analysis, the ORNAP optimization model was used to allocate optimal irrigated areas to a pre-selected set of crops, as well as their water requirement, and the MODSIM P32, a simulation model, was used to verify the water sustainability of Canoas and Saco de Nova Olinda reservoirs, which supply water. The hydro behavior of system was verified through the design of scenarios for climatic and initial volumes for the reservoirs, taking into account a planning time horizon of two years. The results have shown that up to 70% of the available land can be irrigated, even with unfavorable climatic conditions and initial reservoir volumes, if an optimized crop scheduling and irrigation selection, as well as reservoir water allocation, is performed.

São Francisco river Integration Project, Eastern Axis: losses analysis and performance indicators

Water scarcity is an old problem in the brazilian Northeast semiarid region and limits the economic and social development of the region. To mitigate negative impacts of this situation, the National Integration Ministry elaborated the São Francisco River Integration Project (PISF). The State of Paraíba will benefit from this project through the East Axis and West Axis water transposition systems’ from the São Francisco river. The Paraíba riverbasin will receive the waters of the São Francisco river through the Eastern Axis, since the project foresees that, from the city of Monteiro-PB, the water will be transported through the bed of the Paraíba river. This type of transport will cause high water losses. The present work analyzes water distribution scenarios in terms of water losses, which were simulated with the Acquanet model. The first scenario simulates the current situation, without water transposition of PISF, and the other ones evaluate different ways of distributing the waters of the East Axis among the Paraíba river bed and different pipelines construction scenarios. The results have shown that the construction of pipelines will reduce water losses and increase social gain, through the increase of the benefited population.

Multicriteria analysis applied to the management of urban pluvial waters

O processo de urbanizacao altera significativamente os processos de escoamento natural da bacia hidrografica, com o aumento do volume das aguas pluviais escoadas superficialmente, incremento das vazoes de pico dos corpos d’agua, degradacao da qualidade da agua, geracao de sedimentos, entre outros. A gestao das aguas pluviais tem, entao, um papel fundamental em uma area urbana, este processo vem se tornando cada vez mais complexo, envolvendo nao somente aspectos hidrologicos e hidraulicos, como tambem questoes ambientais, sociais e sanitarias, alem dos aspectos tecnicos e de custos usualmente considerados. Esta complexidade leva, cada vez mais, ao uso da analise multicriterio como suporte a decisao. Neste sentido, este trabalho objetiva a aplicacao de uma metodologia de analise multicriterial aplicado a drenagem urbana, com o auxilio do PROMETHEE. Os resultados indicaram que a aplicacao de analise de multicriterio agregado aos cenarios de intervencoes hidraulicas se adequa bem a realidade, pois permite incluir uma gestao participativa.

Simulação de alterações numa ETA convencional de porte médio para a produção de água segura / Changes simulation in a conventional ETA midsize to safe water production

This work involving the analysis of scenarios based on the proposition of operational and structural changes in water supply systems and their impacts on the quality of water supplied to the population. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impacts of structural and management alterations proposed for the water treatment plant on water quality in the network, based on the simulation of the behavior of free residual chlorine (FRC), as well as to evaluate the reduction the risks to the health of consumers, through the application of risk analysis method Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), aiming a safe supply for the population of a medium-sized city. The simulation of water quality behavior was developed in the software EPANET 2.0, being the network map constructed from the network tracing of water supply network of two places of Campina Grande City, Paraiba state, Brazil. In the current scenario (C1) one of the places presented, on all nodes, FRC below the minimum recommended by the Ordinance of Brazilian Health Ministry; after the changes, simulated in scenario 2 (C2) an improvement of 60% was observed in the disinfectant concentration compliance with the minimumrecommended value. The risk assessment for C2 showed that the changes provided a reduction of about 66% of the risks in relation to C1. The simulation indicated that there is an improvement in the quality of water but it was concluded, however, that only promoting changes in the water treatment plant is not sufficient to ensure the same or higher concentrations of FRC equal or superior to 0.2mgCl2 /L, throughout the network.

Changes simulation in a conventional ETA midsize to safe water production

This work involving the analysis of scenarios based on the proposition of operational and structural changes in water supply systems and their impacts on the quality of water supplied to the population. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impacts of structural and management alterations proposed for the water treatment plant on water quality in the network, based on the simulation of the behavior of free residual chlorine (FRC), as well as to evaluate the reduction the risks to the health of consumers, through the application of risk analysis method Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), aiming a safe supply for the population of a medium-sized city. The simulation of water quality behavior was developed in the software EPANET 2.0, being the network map constructed from the network tracing of water supply network of two places of Campina Grande City, Paraiba state, Brazil. In the current scenario (C1) one of the places presented, on all nodes, FRC below the minimum recommended by the Ordinance of Brazilian Health Ministry; after the changes, simulated in scenario 2 (C2) an improvement of 60% was observed in the disinfectant concentration compliance with the minimumrecommended value. The risk assessment for C2 showed that the changes provided a reduction of about 66% of the risks in relation to C1. The simulation indicated that there is an improvement in the quality of water but it was concluded, however, that only promoting changes in the water treatment plant is not sufficient to ensure the same or higher concentrations of FRC equal or superior to 0.2mgCl2 /L, throughout the network.

Simulação de alterações numa ETA convencional de porte médio para a produção de água segura

This work involving the analysis of scenarios based on the proposition of operational and structural changes in water supply systems and their impacts on the quality of water supplied to the population. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impacts of structural and management alterations proposed for the water treatment plant on water quality in the network, based on the simulation of the behavior of free residual chlorine (FRC), as well as to evaluate the reduction the risks to the health of consumers, through the application of risk analysis method Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), aiming a safe supply for the population of a medium-sized city. The simulation of water quality behavior was developed in the software EPANET 2.0, being the network map constructed from the network tracing of water supply network of two places of Campina Grande City, Paraiba state, Brazil. In the current scenario (C1) one of the places presented, on all nodes, FRC below the minimum recommended by the Ordinance of Brazilian Health Ministry; after the changes, simulated in scenario 2 (C2) an improvement of 60% was observed in the disinfectant concentration compliance with the minimumrecommended value. The risk assessment for C2 showed that the changes provided a reduction of about 66% of the risks in relation to C1. The simulation indicated that there is an improvement in the quality of water but it was concluded, however, that only promoting changes in the water treatment plant is not sufficient to ensure the same or higher concentrations of FRC equal or superior to 0.2mgCl2 /L, throughout the network.