Winnie P.H. Poon

Are unsolicited credit ratings biased downward

Abstract There has been considerable controversy over unsolicited credit ratings in recent years. Some dissatisfied issuers allege that unsolicited ratings are biased downward in contrast to solicited ratings. This is the first empirical study to analyze the controversy using pooled time-series cross-sectional data of 265 firms in 15 countries from Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P’s) during the period of 1998–2000. The results demonstrate that unsolicited ratings are lower. On the other hand, I also find that those issuers who choose not to obtain rating services from S&P’s have weaker financial profiles. Although the difference in ratings can be explained by this significant self-selection bias, results of the Japanese sub-sample indicate that unsolicited ratings are still lower than solicited ratings after controlling for differences in sovereign risk and key financial characteristics.

A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings

Abstract In 1995 Moody’s Investors Services inaugurated a new rating service, bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs), that assesses the safety and soundness of banks in over 50 countries. Our study sets out to do some preliminary investigations of this new type of credit rating. We develop logistic regression models to help explain or predict BFSRs. Using bank-specific accounting and financial data we are able to correctly classify or predict BFSRs. These fundamental variables cover the dimensions of risk, loan provision ratios, and profitability. Of the three, loan provisions is the most important factor, followed by risk, and then profitability. Country risk ratings do not appear to be significant explanators of BFSRs. We also find that traditional debt ratings accurately classify BFSRs and this raises the question of whether BFSRs add incremental information. The paper also highlights future directions for our research. One such area is to examine how well BFSRs predict banking crises such as the credit problems currently affecting Asia and Latin America.

Asset pricing in segmented capital markets: Preliminary evidence from China-domiciled companies

Abstract A number of Chinese companies have issued shares to investors within China (A shares) and issued shares to foreign investors (B, H, and N shares). All these shares have equal rights although A shares can only be sold to, and traded among, PRC citizens and B, H, and N shares can only be issued to, and traded among, foreign investors. The paper examines the impact of the initial listing of B-share issues on the prices of already listed A shares. Our analyses test the joint characteristics of market segmentation and seasoned equity offerings. We find that the abnormal returns on A-share companies that also offer B shares are significantly negative, a result consistent with the hypothesis that the demand curve for equity shares is downward sloping. Interestingly, these negative abnormal returns can be explained by our proxies for the investor recognition theory of Merton (1987) and the liquidity theory of Amihud and Mendelson (1986) .

Red chips or H shares : which China-backed securities process information the fastest?

Abstract This study examines the information flow between China-backed securities, namely H shares, red chips, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed common shares. We document several findings. We find that an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (EGARCH-M) model appears to describe adequately the return process of the China-backed securities. Our empirical findings show that both H shares and red chips (which are listed in Hong Kong) are more sensitive to ‘good’ news than ‘bad’ news, while stocks listed in the China market are more sensitive to ‘bad’ news than ‘good’ news. Using a multivariate EGARCH-M model, we have found significant return and volatility spillover effects among the China-backed securities. Our study indicates that the red chips appear to spread information to other China-backed markets ‘directly’ or ‘indirectly’. The results imply that the red chip market processes information faster than the other markets.

The spillover effects of the trading suspension of the treasury bond futures market in China

Abstract The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the equity market response to the suspension of trading in the Shanghai Treasury bond (T-bond) futures market in 1995. We examine the equity market because of its dominance in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The equity market is worth over 60% of the total turnover in value (i.e. about 31.9 billion yuan in July, 1995). Specifically, we study the return and liquidity responses of both Shanghai and Shenzhen A and B shares. Results indicate that, while suspension of trading for the Shanghai Treasury-bond futures has a significant impact on the risk of the Shanghai B share returns only, it appears to improve the market liquidity of both A and B shares on the two exchanges.

The effects of credit ratings on stock returns in China

Domestic credit-rating agencies in China have been criticized for having no effect on the decisions of investors. We examine whether credit ratings and rating outlooks of the listed companies that are assigned by Chinese rating agencies have any effect on their stock returns. We use the pooled time-series cross-sectional issuer-rating data of 160 companies that are listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from Xinhua—Far East China Credit Ratings (a Hong Kong—based credit-ratings agency) for 2002 to 2004. Using a simultaneous equation model, we offer new insights into the determinants of Chinese credit ratings and whether credit ratings affect stock returns. The results suggest that profitability, debt structure, firm size, and past stock performance are important factors in determining Chinese credit ratings and rating outlooks. The model shows that credit ratings and the stock performance of the rated companies simultaneously influence each other. Chinese credit ratings are important to the stock returns of the rated issuers in China. Our empirical results provide preliminary evidence that contrasts the conceptual argument that credit ratings in China are not important to investors.

Bank Loan Supply and Corporate Capital Structure: Recent Evidence from China

This paper provides new evidence on the supply side effects on corporate capital structure in China. We find that bank-dependent firms, which are mainly large and state-owned companies in China, increase (decrease) their leverage ratios if loan supplies increase (decrease) relative to the case for small and private firms due to the inability of small and private firms to access bank loans. With their ability to substitute between different forms of capital, large and state-owned firms are relatively less (more) likely to use internal funds and equity financing when bank loans are (not) available than are small and private firms. During the credit boom in 2009 and 2010, the large and state-owned firms increase leverage ratios by 2.26% and 2.76% more than matched firms; and small and private firms are shown to decrease leverage in this period. These findings lend support to the importance of supply side effects and bank loan segmentation on capital structure decisions.

Regulation Fair Disclosure's Effect on the Information Content of Bond Rating Changes

The SEC implemented Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) in 2000. Reg FD requires firms to release material information to everyone simultaneously, thereby reducing information asymmetry between favoured stock analysts and others. Bond rating agencies were exempt from Reg FD in order to continue receiving the private firm information necessary for accurate credit default assessments. The exemption, if valuable to the bond market, should have resulted in an increase in the relative importance of bond rating changes on bond yield premia when Reg FD was implemented. In the first empirical study on the impact of Reg FD on the bond markets, we explore this hypothesis by measuring bond yield premia reactions to bond rating changes around the implementation of Reg FD. For downgrades, we find the impact of Reg FD is related to firm size. The smallest firms experienced a significantly weaker bond yield premia response. The evidence for the relevance of Reg FD for upgrades is weak. Contrary to concerns from the Bond Market Association, it appears Reg FD lessened the impact of downgrades on the smallest firms, and did not affect speculative‐grade bonds or bonds with higher debt levels.

An Empirical Study of International Spillover of Sovereign Risk to Bank Credit Risk

The severity and complexity of the recent financial crisis has motivated the need for understanding the relationships between sovereign ratings and bank credit ratings. This is the first study to examine the impact of the “international” spillover of sovereign risk to bank credit risk through both a ratings channel and an asset holdings channel. In the first case, the downgrade of sovereign ratings in GIIPS (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) countries leads to rating downgrades of banks in the peripheral countries. The second channel indicates that larger asset holdings of GIIPS debt increases the credit risk of cross-border banks, and hence, the probabilities of downgrade.