Wolfram Berger

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: More Bad News for "Benign Neglect"

In this paper we explore the optimal policy reaction to boom-bust cycles in asset prices. Bordo and Jeanne (2002a, b) point to the risks of a reactive strategy that only mitigates the consequences of a crisis if and when it occurs. Acting pre-emptively by rigorously counteracting the build-up of the crisis scenario may be superior in welfare terms. We show that even a purely reactive monetary policy must involve an ex ante response to a possible asset price crash. The reason, however, is not the attempt to avoid real and financial disruption but to react optimally to changes in the private sectors expectations. Furthermore, we find that the welfare losses of a reactive strategy increase when forward-looking expectations are taken into account, while the welfare implications of a proactive strategy do not change. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The hard shadow of the Greek economy: New estimates of the size of the underground economy and its fiscal impact

This article presents new estimates of the Greek underground economy and explores the link between the underground economy and aggregate debt. We show that the Greek underground economy has been underestimated heavily and has been on a rising trend again since Greece adopted the Euro. We also present evidence that the size of the underground economy is positively related to the debt-to-GDP ratio, implying that fighting the underground economy is also conducive to financial and macroeconomic stability. Our results suggest that for our sample of 11 EMU member countries, the loss of the inflation tax as an economic policy instrument had drastic consequences. While the underground economy did not have a statistically significant impact on aggregate debt before the introduction of the Euro, it has pushed up the debt-to-GDP ratio in our sample since.

Optimal Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Is International Monetary Cooperation Beneficial?

A stochastic general-equilibrium model is used to explore the welfare effects of optimal monetary policy and the potential benefits of policy coordination. Cross-country perfectly symmetric shocks in the traded goods sectors and imperfectly correlated shocks in the non-traded goods sectors are considered. In this set-up, monetary policy may not be able to achieve efficient sectoral resource allocations within countries and avoid inefficient relative price changes across countries. Welfare gains from coordination are sizable if the shocks to the traded and non-traded goods sectors are negatively correlated and both sectors are of roughly equal size.

Do fiscal decentralization and income inequality affect the size of the shadow economy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries

ABSTRACT In this article, we study fiscal decentralization and inequality as driving forces of the shadow economy in advanced economies. Our empirical analysis suggests that a reduction in income inequality will contain the shadow economy, whereas expenditure and tax decentralization do not significantly impact it. As decentralization is generally believed to increase government efficiency, this result is indicative of already highly efficient public administrations. Our results further indicate that redistributive policies positively affect the size of the shadow economy, whereas the tax burden does not have any discernible effect on the shadow economy in our sample.

Monetary Policy Rules for a Small Open Economy

In this paper, the optimal choice of a monetary target is investigated for a small open economy that is subject to foreign monetary policy shocks. In contrast to large parts of the literature, pegging the exchange rate is never the best policy choice for the small open economy in our model. Instead, monetary targeting and, depending on the parameter combination, producer price index targeting come closest to the optimal policy rule in terms of welfare. Generally, the welfare performance of the simple targeting rules under consideration hinge critically on the degree of pass-through in the home economy and in the rest of the world.

Waste Management Regulation: Policy Solutions and Policy Shortcomings

A model of packaging waste management is presented to explore the policy options available to governments to implement waste regulation in light of the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR). Our model endogenizes the packaging design as an additional determinant for the overall amount of waste jointly with consumers’ sorting effort and producers’ output decisions. The model shows that the policies that yield the first-best allocation may not find public support. Furthermore, if the set of available policy instruments is limited, production and consumption of the good is likely to settle on a sub-optimal level even though the optimal allocation may be achievable. Finally, the model demonstrates that a landfill tax may actually increase landfill waste in the presence of tradable credits for recycling activities. The results shed light on some shortcomings of existing regulatory schemes such as the Producer Responsibility Obligations (Packaging Waste) Regulations of the UK.

BANKING UNION IN EUROPE: HOW MUCH CENTRALISATION IS NEEDED?

We examine the efficiency of banking regulation in a federation with two tiers of government and highly integrated banking systems. We assume that policy makers have incomplete information about banks’ true health, and banking sector turmoil can generate cross†border spill†over effects. We show that, in such an environment, the decentralisation of policy responsibilities for the regulation of banks can achieve the first†best allocation and ensure financial stability. While national governments design banking regulations, the federal policy maker authorises inter†regional income redistribution payments throughout the federation. Our results suggest that strengthening national responsibilities in banking regulation and supervision in the course of the further development of the European banking union may be advisable.

The labour market effects of offshoring of small and medium-sized firms: micro-level evidence for Germany

ABSTRACT Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the economic powerhouse of many OECD countries (perhaps most prominently so in Germany). Yet, the labour market dynamics caused by the internationalization of their production activities are largely unexplored. We use survey-based micro-level data for Germany to explore the employment effects of offshoring of SMEs, relying on propensity score matching and difference-in-difference analysis. We find evidence for a downsizing effect in the immediate aftermath of offshoring whereas, initially, job creation is not spurred. In the medium run, we find evidence for a slowing down of employment dynamics of offshoring firms (that tend to belong to the better performing SMEs in Germany) relative to non-offshoring firms. Even though our results do not point to a net employment loss in the medium run, our evidence suggests that offshoring may lead to less jobs being created. This conclusion cannot be confirmed for large companies.

‘Forward guidance’: new monetary policy instrument or esoteric fad?

In August 2013, the Bank of England adopted a new monetary policy known as ‘forward guidance’. This paper sheds light on this landmark moment and this rather obscure policy instrument. The authors unpack the rationale of this policy, its implementation modality and provide international evidence on its impact. Important questions are then raised about whether this policy is needed in the UK, and about the downsides of this seemingly innocuous monetary experiment.

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: When Cleaning Up Hits the Zero Lower Bound

SummaryRecently, convincing evidence has been presented that the recession in the wake of the recent financial crisis resulted primarily from an overly levered housing sector that was forced to deleverage and cut consumption spending when faced with collapsing housing prices. Following this interpretation it is argued that, as opposed to the consensus view on monetary policy in the vicinity of the ZLB, optimal monetary policy may involve an interest rate increase if the ZLB threatens to become a binding constraint in the aftermath of an asset price bust. This result delivers arguments to advocate a— in the previous literature less favored— pre-emptive tightening policy in an asset price boom.