Wonjae Hwang

War, Power, and Bargaining

Existing research on power and war contends that the distribution of power exerts an independent effect on the chances of armed conflict. However, theories of bargaining indicate that powers influence on war depends on the ex ante distribution of benefits and has a specific functional form. We test that claim, showing that the effect of power on war rests heavily on the distribution of benefits. Our findings strongly suggest bargaining explanations may subsume other arguments about power and war both theoretically and empirically.

Pollution, Institutions and Street Protests in Urban China

Abstract Street protests have become commonplace in China. Utilizing extensive survey data, this study attempts to shed light on the nature of environmental street protests in China. The key question to be answered in the article is: why, facing the same issue, do some people choose the option of participating in street protests while others do not? Multivariate analytical findings indicate that Chinese urban residents’ willingness to participate in street protests over a hypothetical pollution issue in China is significantly related to their attitudes toward institutions in China. What motivates people to participate in street protests has a lot to do with their trust and support of the political system in China and their perceived government transparency. In other words, these protests are not just what Lewis Coser calls ‘realistic conflicts’ which primarily involve specific issues and solutions. One implication from this study is that street protests in China may not be as benign and non-regime threatening as some scholars might think.

Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence Voting in the UN General Assembly

Recent studies report that temporary members of the UN Security Council receive favorable treatment from the IMF, the World Bank, or in US foreign aid in exchange for their political support for permanent members. Nevertheless, few studies have examined whether this favorable treatment and these benefits have actually made any significant changes in the member states’ voting behavior in the United Nations. To explore this question, we investigate whether membership on the UN Security Council influences a state’s voting in the UN General Assembly. In the analysis of panel data for 197 countries over the period from 1946 to 2008, the empirical results show that elected members of the UN Security Council tend to behave similarly with permanent members, especially with the United States, as the number of loan programs signed with the IMF and the World Bank increases. Also, US foreign aid significantly increases temporary members’ vote coincidence with the United States and other permanent members. In this regard, this article contributes to our understanding of state voting behavior and power politics in international organizations.

Weather, Voter Turnout and Partisan Effects in Korea, 1995–1999

Weather conditions have long been considered as a major factor that affects voter turnout. Does inclement weather suppress voter turnout? If so, which party would benefit from lower voter turnout caused by bad weather conditions? Since voter turnout has an impact on electoral outcomes in many countries, including Korea, addressing these questions is essential for better understanding of voter turnout and electoral outcomes. This paper examines the weather-turnout theory using 146 by-elections held in Korea between 1995 and 1999. The results show that, all else being constant, inclement weather reduces voter turnout, implying that it may benefit right-wing or major parties rather than left-wing or minor parties through its negative impact on voter turnout.