Xiaojian Zhang

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation

The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the “present” is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7–7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8–5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5–8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

Definition of the core zone of the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime”, and its controlling factors during the instrumental period

The term “westerlies-dominated climatic regime” describes the pattern of precipitation/moisture variations between westerlies-dominated arid Central Asia (ACA) and mid-latitude monsoon-dominated Asia on decadal to multi-millennial time scales. However, no attempts have been made to define its core region and the possible physical mechanisms responsible during the period of instrumental observations. The present study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of summer and winter precipitation on interannual to decadal time scales over mid-latitudes of the Eurasian continent using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Our results suggest the existence of an opposing pattern of summer precipitation variations between ACA and mid-latitude monsoon-dominated Asia and Mediterranean on decadal time scales. Based on these results, the core region influenced by the westerlies is outlined, including arid central Asia and Xinjiang in China (36°–54°N, 50°–90°E). By using monthly NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the relationship between the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime” and atmospheric circulation were also analyzed. The combination of the zonal climatic teleconnection pattern and anomalous Indian summer monsoon precipitation (ISMP) causes the precipitation characteristics of the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime” precipitation pattern. In addition, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may also have an important effect on the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime”.

Variations in the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains region and their significance for the Westerly circulation

Proxy records of the oxygen isotopic composition of meteorological precipitation (δ18Op) preserved in archives such as ice cores, lacustrine carbonates and stalagmite calcite are important for paleoclimatic studies. Therefore, knowledge of the variations and controlling mechanisms of modern δ18Op on different time scales is necessary. Here, we investigate the linear correlations between δ18Op and corresponding temperature and precipitation on monthly and inter-annual timescales, using data from the Urumqi (1986–2003) and Hotan stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), and δ18O data from 4 ice cores in the adjacent Tianshan Mountains. Consistent with previous reported results, modern δ18Op variations on a seasonal time scale in the Tianshan region are mainly controlled by a ‘temperature effect’ (indicated by a significant positive correlation between δ18Op and temperature), with more positive δ18Op values occurring in summer. However, on an inter-annual timescale, there is a weak inverse correlation between weighted average annual δ18Op and annual average temperature at Urumqi station. This finding is supported by the inversely varying trends of δ18O data from 4 ice cores in the central and eastern Tianshan Mountains compared to annual average temperatures in the same region during the past 40–50 years. The data from Urumqi station and the 4 ice cores demonstrate that there is inverse correlation between δ18Op and temperature on inter-annual to decadal time scales. Analysis of water vapor sources and pathways for the warm year of 1997 and the cold year of 1988 reveal that relatively more water vapor for the Tianshan region was derived from long-distance transport from high-latitude sources than during the warm year of 1997; and that more water vapor was transported from more proximal sources from mid- to low-latitude areas during the cold year of 1988. In addition, the δ18Op values are more negative in the high latitude areas than those in mid- to low-latitude areas in the Eurasian continent at the upper wind direction of Tianshan Mountains region, according to the weighted averaged warm season (May to September) δ18Op values for 14 GNIP stations in the years 1997 and 1988. Due to the distribution of δ18Op within the Eurasian continent, the relative shift of water vapor sources between warm and cold years convincingly explains the observed variations of δ18Op in the Tianshan Mountains region. Therefore, we conclude that variations in δ18Op in this region are mainly controlled by changes in water vapor sources which are ultimately caused by northward and southward shifts in the Westerly circulation.

Forcing mechanisms of orbital-scale changes in winter rainfall over northwestern China during the Holocene

The moisture history in arid central Asia (ACA) differs from that in the Asian monsoon region during the Holocene. Much less is known about causes of Holocene moisture changes in ACA than Asian monsoon precipitation changes, hampering our understanding of their spatiotemporal differences. In this study, orbital-scale evolution of winter rainfall in northwestern China (a part of the core zone in ACA) during the Holocene and possible driving mechanisms are investigated using results from a long-term transient simulation performed by an atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice coupled general circulation model, the Kiel Climate Model, forced by orbital variations. Our results reveal a persistent wetting trend in northwestern China in winter throughout the Holocene, which is in response to winter insolation at mid-northern latitudes. Winter insolation can influence the rainfall via three ways. First, increasing latitudinal gradient of the incoming solar insolation at mid-latitudes strengthens the westerly intensity. Second, the evaporation is enhanced because of insolation-induced winter temperature rising, resulting in an increase in the air humidity. Intensified westerly winds and the increased water vapour together are conductive to enhance moisture transport towards northwestern China and thus increase winter precipitation in this area. Third, the increasing trend of winter insolation weakens the East Asian winter monsoon, which is favourable for the formation of rainfall via crippling the Siberian High that is beneficial for atmospheric lifting motion.

Weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon at 1000–1100 A.D. within the Medieval Climate Anomaly: Possible linkage to changes in the Indian Ocean‐western Pacific

Monsoon droughts, especially on a decadal-to-centennial timescale, may have a profound impact on the populations of East Asia. Previous work has suggested that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was synchronously strong across East Asia during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 900-1300A.D.); however, there is a dearth of studies addressing the issue of whether or not the EASM varied significantly during the entire duration of the MCA. Here we present results from a diverse range of proxy paleoclimatic records from the monsoonal and temperate Asian region in order to evaluate the occurrence of such short timescale variability within the MCA. Within the context of an overall strong EASM during the MCA, a weakening of the monsoon was detected in many of the records during the period 1000-1100A.D. Comparison of the timing of this event with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian Ocean-western Pacific and with proxy records of solar activity reveals a significant covariation, suggesting that the driver of the event may have resulted from changes in the Indian Ocean-western Pacific, related to changes in solar activity. To further address the issue of a terrestrial-oceanic linkage, we used the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled climate model to simulate the variation of EASM precipitation over the last millennium. The model results suggest an interval of weak East Asian summer monsoon at 1000-1100A.D., and they also reveal a significant positive correlation with the SST of the Indian Ocean-western Pacific. Key Points Weakening of the East Asian Summer monsoon at 1000-1100 AD The MCA was not a period of uniformly strong summer monsoonal activity An atmospheric-oceanic driver of the weakening of East Asia summer monsoon

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations

To better understand the long-term changes of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation (Pjja), quantitative reconstructions and model simulations are needed. Here, we develop continental-scale pollen-based transfer functions for Pjja with weighted averaging–partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression and a Bayesian multinomial regression method. We apply these transfer functions to a set of fossil pollen data from monsoonal China for quantitatively reconstructing the Pjja changes over the last 9500 years. We compare the reconstructions with Pjja simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model (the Kiel Climate Model, KCM). The results of cross-validation tests for the transfer functions show that both the WA-PLS model (r2 = 0.83, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 112.11 mm) and the Bayesian model (r2 = 0.86, RMSEP = 107.67 mm) exhibit good predictive performance. We stack all Pjja reconstructions from northern China to a summary curve. The stacked record reveals that Pjja increased since 9500 cal. yr BP, attained its highest level during the Holocene summer monsoon maximum (HSMM) at ~7000–4000 cal. yr BP and declined to present. The KCM output and the reconstructions differ in the early-Holocene (~9500–7000 cal. yr BP) where the model suggests higher Pjja than the reconstructions. Moreover, during the HSMM, the amplitude of the Pjja changes (~20–60 mm above present) in simulations is lower than the reconstructed changes (~70–110 mm above present). The rising (declining) Pjja patterns in reconstructions before (after) the HSMM are more pronounced and fluctuating than in simulations. Other palaeohydrological data such as lake-level reconstructions indicate substantial monsoon precipitation changes throughout the Holocene. Our results therefore show that the KCM underestimates the overall amplitude of the Holocene monsoon precipitation changes.

Asynchronous variation in the East Asian winter monsoon during the Holocene

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is one of the most active components of the global climate system. Climate anomalies associated with the EAWM differ between extratropical and tropical regions due to the EAWMs meridional extent. Spatial differences in the EAWM variability on centennial and millennial time scales during the Holocene have not been well understood. This study describes Holocene spatiotemporal features of the EAWM based on comparisons of proxy records and climate simulations. The analysis specifically compared four proxy records located throughout China to assess the EAWMs spatial variability during the Holocene. These records indicate a stronger EAWM during the early Holocene than that during the late Holocene. The EAWM also shows a rapid, asynchronous decline from northwestern to southeastern China. The EAWM declined in northwestern China from 10 to 7.5 ka B.P., whereas the decline did not occur in southern China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau until 6–4.5 ka B.P. Coupled equilibrium and transient simulations of climate evolution during the Holocene indicate that the decline of the EAWM from 10 to 7.5 ka B.P. was probably caused by melting of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets and enhanced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The decline of the EAWM from 6 to 4.5 ka B.P. over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and southern China is related to an abrupt increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical western Indian Ocean. We therefore argue that the regional shift in EAWM intensity was probably related to a distinguishing response to high-latitude (NH ice sheets and AMOC) and low-latitude (tropical SSTs) forcings.

Association of the Northern Hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection with the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene in a transient simulation

This paper provides another look at the response of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) to insolation forcing and oceanic feedback during the Holocene, using a fully coupled general circulation ocean–atmosphere model forced by Earth’s orbital variations. The model results revealed a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime (June–July–August) mid-latitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere during the Holocene. The CGT index showed a decreasing trend before ~5 ka BP and a slight increasing trend afterwards, affected by the combined effects of summer insolation, Indian summer monsoon (ISM), North Atlantic and Indian Ocean–western Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The CGT showed a close relationship with ASM precipitation and surface air temperature during the Holocene and, therefore, could act as a bridge linking the ASM to insolation, high-latitude forcing (North Atlantic SST), and low-latitude forcing (tropical Ocean SST). We emphasize that the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation has been a key factor for the evolution of the ASM during the Holocene. In addition, the CGT provides a viable explanation for the out-of-phase relationship in the moisture evolution but an in-phase relationship in the speleothem δ18O between arid central Asia and the ISM region during the Holocene.

Reply to comment by Rashid et al. on “Asynchronous variation in the East Asian winter monsoon during the Holocene”

Rashid et al. (2016) questioned the use of the Mg-/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) data from the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as well as the alkenone-based SST data from the western tropical Indian Ocean we used to reflect the winter SSTs or regional changes in the Holocene SSTs. We first would like to reemphasize that the main message we wanted to convey in our article is that the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) strength decreased and then increased again during the Holocene but with a substantial lag in southern China as compared to northern China. We, of course, wanted to back up our model results with published SST data that may have detected such an asynchronous variation in the EAWM. For convenience, we used a series of proxy records extracted from the extended Global database for alkenone-derived HOlocene Sea-surface Temperature (GHOST) database that were initially intended to provide a template of Holocene SST trends for model/data comparison purpose (http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.737370). Rashid et al. (2016) questioned our model/data comparison exercise, arguing that the data we present in Zhang et al. (2015a) cannot be used to track leads and lags in winter SSTs in the North Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean. Below we address point by point the issues raised by Rashid et al. (2016) and thank the authors for giving us the opportunity to sharpen our model/data comparison analysis.