Xinxin Ma

The Lewis turning point of Chinese economy: Comparison with Japanese experience

In this article, we estimate production function and calculate surplus labor in agriculture. The estimation results revealed that the Lewis turning point (LTP) was not yet passed in China. This study is also made in comparison with Japanese historical experience. The main contents are as follows. First, we survey the recent change in the urban labor market by using unemployment rate as an index to express the balance of labor demand and labor supply, and wage differentials between agriculture and urban industries with high productivity and high wages. Second, we estimate agricultural production function and calculate the marginal productivity of labor and surplus labor in order to demarcate LTP. Third, we reveal factors for the change in agricultural labor by referring to a growth in urban industry and argue on the role of rural industries in absorbing surplus labor. Finally, we refer to several important issues which are left for future studies.

Changes of Wage Structures in Chinese Public and Private Sectors: 1995-2007

Using CHIP (Chinese Household Income Project Survey) data and the sample selection bias corrected wage function model, this paper estimated changes in wage structure in China by ownership types (SOEs, COEs, FEs, and PEs) in 1995 and 2007. The major conclusions are as follows. First, effects of education on wage levels in SOEs and FEs become greater, while education effects decrease in SOEs and PEs under economic transition periods; firm-specific human capital becomes more important in the wage determination mechanism along with market-oriented reforms in SOEs, PEs, and FEs; age effect decreases in SOEs and COEs, but it becomes greater in PEs and FEs. Second, there exist wage structure differences between sectors by wage distributions. For example, in 2007, in SOEs, education return rates are higher for the low-wage and middle-wage groups, and the effect is the highest at the 40th percentile. However in COEs and FEs, education return rates are higher for the high-wage groups, and the effect is the highest at the 70th percentile in COEs and at the 70th percentile in FEs. Tenure effects are greater in the middle-wage groups (40th-80th) in SOEs, COEs, and FEs, and age effects are greater in the low-wage groups (5th-30th) in SOEs, FEs, and PEs.

Economic Transition and the Determinants of Self-employment in Urban China: 2007-2013

Abstract Why was there a large growth in self-employment in urban China during the economic transition period? There are two hypotheses proposed to answer this: the disguised unemployment hypothesis that there is no opportunity to access the formal sector to gain better work, and the business creation hypothesis that successful business owners create new jobs for others, new business opportunities, and many innovative new products for society, as pointed out in previous studies. Using CHIP2007 and CHIP2013, this paper tests the two hypotheses. The main conclusions are as follows: First, generally, utilizing the imputed wage premiums, which were used in previous studies, the business creation hypothesis is rejected; the disguised unemployment hypothesis is supported for both the local urban resident and the migrant groups in 2007 and 2013. Second, the results that utilized the new wage premiums based on the imputed employee wages in the private sector show that the business creation hypothesis is supported when a worker chose to become an employer for both the migrant group and the local urban resident group in 2013. Third, the business creation hypothesis is relevant for the older generation group of local urban residents in 2013.

Labor Market and the Lewisian Turning Point in China

The shortage of migrant workers in coastal urban areas in 2004, which was called mingong huang, caused a debate among economists as to whether or not the Chinese economy had passed the Lewisian turning point (TP).1 China’s passing TP would be the fourth event in East Asia following Japan in around 1960, Taiwan at the end of the 1960s, and Korea at the beginning of the 1970s (Chapter 11).