Xuerui Gao

Temporal and spatial evolution of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the Loess Plateau under climate change from 2001 to 2050

Loess Plateau has great uncertainty on drought occurrence due to climate change. This paper analyzes the evolution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and regional downscaling model (RegCM4.0). Results indicate that, under RCP2.6 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 16.40mm/10a. However, the potential evapotranspiration is showing non-significant decreasing trend at the rate of 2.16mm/10a. Moreover, the SPEI will decrease in the south and northernmost area and increase in the central northern area of Loess Plateau. Under RCP8.5 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 19.12mm/10a. The potential evapotranspiration will non-significantly decrease at the rate of 2.16mm/10a and the SPEI is showing increasing trend almost in the whole Loess Plateau. Generally, Loess Plateau is becoming wetter in the central part under RCP2.6 Scenario and the wet area will be enlarged to almost the whole plateau under RCP8.5 Scenario. Based on the results, the water resources will increase under global warming, which may alleviate the water scarcity issue in the Loess Plateau.

Actual ET modelling based on the Budyko framework and the sustainability of vegetation water use in the loess plateau

Jointly influenced by the natural factors and the artificial protection measures, the ecological environment of Loess Plateau has been significantly improved in recent years, but which has already brought about some water-related problems. To maintain the balance between precipitation and water consumption is an important foundation for sustainable development of the ecology remediation. This study used Budyko Framework to simulate the actual water consumption of 161 sub-basins from 1990 to 2014. Based on the simulation results, the research also analyzed the evolution characteristics of water balance in Loess Plateau from 1990 to 2014. Results show that, with the increase of vegetation coverage, the regional precipitation and actual evapotranspiration were both showing a significant increasing trend, and the increasing rate of precipitation was 1.91mm/a on average, which was greater than the increasing rate of actual evapotranspiration of 1.34mm/a. To further demonstrate the water balance regime in Loess Plateau, the evapotranspiration coefficient (ECC) was used to quantitatively indicate the ratio of the vegetation water consumption and the total precipitation. The average values of ECC were 0.868, 0.863, 0.851 and 0.837 respectively in four sub-periods of 1990-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. The above analyses indicate that with the vegetation recovery and ecological restoration, the percentage of evapotranspiration in the total precipitation is keeping decreasing and in turn the percentage of water yield in the total precipitation is keeping increasing. Consequently, it seems more sustainable for vegetation water use in most areas of Loess Plateau currently.

Impact of Land Use Change on Hydrologic Processes in a Large Plain Irrigation District

Land use is the main factor that influences catchment hydrologic processes, and a better understanding of its effect is important for future land use planning and water resource management. By applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we assessed the effects of land use changes on major hydrologic processes (evapotranspiration (ET), discharge, river) on a large plain irrigation district, the Hetao Irrigation District (HID), China. The results indicated that SWAT was a useful tool for simulating the effects of land use changes on regional hydrologic processes. Human activities were the main factors that directly influenced land use in the HID. Land use changes had important impacts on the hydrologic processes of the HID. During 1995–2010, the land use changed greatly in the HID, leading to the changes in ET and discharge. The peak value of ET coincided with the exuberant crop growth period in the maximized sown crop area. In 1995s, wheat maximized the sown area and ET peaked in June; when sunflower and corn maximized the sown area in 2010s, ET peaked in July and August. The increased ET reduced discharge in the same period in the HID. Land use change affected the period and quantity of water diversion in the irrigation district. The quantity of water diverted in 1995 was greater than that in 2010, indicating that land use change significantly impacted the water quantity of the river, which was the water source of the irrigation district. This study will be a reference for future land use planning and water resource management in the irrigation district.

The impacts of land conversion and management measures on the grassland net primary productivity over the Loess Plateau, Northern China

In the 1990s, the Chinese government began implementation of a series of national-scale restoration programs to combat environmental degradation. As one of most important arid and semiarid regions of China, the Loess Plateau has attracted attention related to the effectiveness of these initiatives. The present study analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) of the grassland in the Loess Plateau and the consequent change in net primary productivity (NPP) based on a consecutive land use data derived from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative land cover maps and the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model driven by MODIS-NDVI data. The contributions of climate variation and human activities (including land conversion and management measures) to these changes were also quantitatively differentiated. The results indicated that the area of the Loess Plateau grassland experienced a net increase of 0.43 × 104 km2 over the study period. The total NPP of the Loess Plateau grassland increased by 11,325.13 Gg C·yr-1, of which the human activities and climate variation were responsible for 78.45% and 21.55%, respectively. The land conversion reduced the grassland NPP by 308.60 Gg C·yr-1, whereas management measures increased the NPP by 9197.97 Gg C·yr-1 in the otherwise unmodified grassland. Overall, ecological restoration programs have effectively increased grassland NPP in the Loess Plateau. However, human activities played both positive and negative impacts in this process.

The Temporal-Spatial Characteristics of Drought in the Loess Plateau Using the Remote-Sensed TRMM Precipitation Data from 1998 to 2014

Rainfall gauges are always sparse in the arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China, which makes it difficult to precisely study the characteristics of drought at a large scale in this region and similar areas. This study used the TRMM (The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) multi-satellite precipitation data to study the spatial-temporal evolution of drought in the Loess Plateau based on the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) drought index for the period of 1998–2014. The results indicate that the monthly TRMM precipitation data are well matched with the observed precipitation, indicating that this remotely sensed data set can be reliably used to calculate the SPI drought index. Based on the study findings, the average precipitation in the Loess Plateau is showing a significant increasing trend at the rate of 4.46 mm/year. From the spatial perspective, the average annual precipitation in the Southeast is generally greater than that in the Northwest. However, the annual precipitation in the Southeast area is showing a decreasing trend, whereas, the annual precipitation in the northwest areas is showing an increasing trend. Through the SPI analysis, the 3-month SPI and 12-month SPI were both showing an increasing trend, which indicates that the drought severity in the Loess Plateau was a generally declining trend at a seasonal to annual time scale. From the spatial perspective, the SPI values in the Central and Northwest of the Loess Plateau were significantly increasing, whereas, the SPI values in the southern area of the Loess Plateau were slightly decreasing. From the seasonal characteristics, the high-risk area for drought in the spring was concentrated in the northeast and southwest part, and in the summer and autumn, the high-risk area was transferred to the south part. Through this study, it is concluded that the Loess Plateau was likely getting wetter during the time period since the Grain-for-Green Project (1999–2012) was implemented, which replaced much farmland with forestry. This is a positive signal for vegetation recovery and ecological restoration in the near future.