Y. Mohamed

Estimation of Reservoir Discharges from Lake Nasser and Roseires Reservoir in the Nile Basin Using Satellite Altimetry and Imagery Data

This paper presents the feasibility of estimating discharges from Roseires Reservoir (Sudan) for the period from 2002 to 2010 and Aswan High Dam/Lake Nasser (Egypt) for the periods 1999–2002 and 2005–2009 using satellite altimetry and imagery with limited in situ data. Discharges were computed using the water balance of the reservoirs. Rainfall and evaporation data were obtained from public domain data sources. In situ measurements of inflow and outflow (for validation) were obtained, as well. The other water balance components, such as the water level and surface area, for derivation of the change of storage volume were derived from satellite measurements. Water levels were obtained from Hydroweb for Roseires Reservoir and Hydroweb and Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM) for Lake Nasser. Water surface areas were derived from Landsat TM/ETM+ images using the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The water volume variations were estimated by integrating the area-level relationship of each reservoir. For Roseires Reservoir, the water levels from Hydroweb agreed well with in situ water levels (RMSE = 0.92 m; R2 = 0.96). Good agreement with in situ measurements were also obtained for estimated water volume (RMSE = 23%; R2 = 0.94) and computed discharge (RMSE = 18%; R2 = 0.98). The accuracy of the computed discharge was considered acceptable for typical reservoir operation applications. For Lake Nasser, the altimetry water levels also agreed well with in situ levels, both for Hydroweb (RMSE = 0.72 m; R2 = 0.81) and GRLM (RMSE = 0.62 m; R2 = 0.96) data. Similar agreements were also observed for the estimated water volumes (RMSE = 10%–15%). However, the estimated discharge from satellite data agreed poorly with observed discharge, Hydroweb (RMSE = 70%; R2 = 0.09) and GRLM (RMSE = 139%; R2 = 0.36). The error could be attributed to the high sensitivity of discharge to errors in storage volume because of the immense reservoir compared to inflow/outflow series. It may also be related to unaccounted spills into the Toshka Depression, overestimation of water inflow and errors in open water evaporation. Therefore, altimetry water levels and satellite imagery data can be used as a source of information for monitoring the operation of Roseires Reservoir with a fairly low uncertainty, while the errors of Lake Nasser are too large to allow for the monitoring of its operation.

Sediment balances in the Blue Nile River Basin

Rapid population growth in the upper Blue Nile basin has led to fast land-use changes from natural forest to agricultural land. This resulted in speeding up the soil erosion process in the highlands and increasing sedimentation further downstream in reservoirs and irrigation canals. At present, several dams are planned across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is currently under construction near the border with Sudan. This will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa. The objective of this paper is to quantify the river flows and sediment loads along the Blue Nile River network. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to estimate the water flows from un-gauged sub-basins. To assess model performance, the estimated sediment loads were compared to the measured ones at selected locations. For the gauged sub-basins, water flows and sediment loads were derived from the available flow and sediment data. To fill in knowledge gaps, this study included a field survey in which new data on suspended solids and flow discharge were collected along the Blue Nile and on a number of tributaries. The comparison between the results of this study and previous estimates of the sediment load of the Blue Nile River at El Deim, near the Ethiopian Sudanese border, show that the sediment budgets have the right order of magnitude, although some uncertainties remain. This gives confidence in the results of this study providing the first sediment balance of the entire Blue Nile catchment at the sub-basin scale.

Mapping evapotranspiration trends using MODIS and SEBAL model in a data scarce and heterogeneous landscape in Eastern Africa

Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for a substantial amount of the water use in river basins particular in the tropics and arid regions. However, accurate estimation still remains a challenge especially in large spatially heterogeneous and data scarce areas including the Upper Pangani River Basin in Eastern Africa. Using multitemporal Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Surface Energy Balance Algorithm of Land (SEBAL) model, 138 images were analyzed at 250 m, 8 day scales to estimate actual ET for 16 land use types for the period 2008–2010. A good agreement was attained for the SEBAL results from various validations. For open water evaporation, the estimated ET for Nyumba ya Mungu (NyM) reservoir showed a good correlations (R?=?0.95; R2?=?0.91; Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Means Square Error (RMSE) of less than 5%) to pan evaporation using an optimized pan coefficient of 0.81. An absolute relative error of 2% was also achieved from the mean annual water balance estimates of the reservoir. The estimated ET for various agricultural land uses indicated a consistent pattern with the seasonal variability of the crop coefficient (Kc) based on Penman-Monteith equation. In addition, ET estimates for the mountainous areas has been significantly suppressed at the higher elevations (above 2300 m a.s.l.), which is consistent with the decrease in potential evaporation. The calculated surface outflow (Qs) through a water balance analysis resulted in a bias of 12% to the observed discharge at the outlet of the river basin. The bias was within 13% uncertainty range at 95% confidence interval for Qs. SEBAL ET estimates were also compared with global ET from MODIS 16 algorithm (R?=?0.74; R2?=?0.32; RMSE of 34% and MAE of 28%) and comparatively significant in variance at 95% confidence level. The interseasonal and intraseasonal ET fluxes derived have shown the level of water use for various land use types under different climate conditions. The evaporative water use in the river basin accounted for 94% to the annual precipitation for the period of study. The results have a potential for use in hydrological analysis and water accounting.

Linking SWAT and SOBEK Using Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) for Sediment Transport Simulation in the Blue Nile River Basin

Computer models assist basin-scale decision making by taking into account upstream-downstream interdependencies. The SWAT (hydrological) model code was developed into an OpenMI-compliant version and linked with the SOBEK (hydrodynamic) model to extend SWATs simulations of basin-scale streamflow and sediment transport. The development of an OpenMI-compliant version of SWAT involved reorganizing the SWAT model code and wrapping it with the OpenMI wrapper utility. The modified SWAT model was linked to the SOBEK model and applied to simulate sediment transport in the Blue Nile River basin. The SWAT model simulated the streamflow and soil erosion in the upstream catchment, while the SOBEK model routed the streamflow and sediment downstream to the basin outlet. Prior to the linking, both the SWAT and SOBEK models were individually calibrated. The results showed that the coupled models simulated the observed hydrodynamics and sediment deposition due to backwater effects, which would not be possible with the SWAT model alone. The developed OpenMI-compliant SWAT model can further be linked to groundwater, climate change, and socioeconomic models to address integrated water resources management needs.

Quantifying longitudinal land use change from land degradation to rehabilitation in the headwaters of Tekeze-Atbara Basin, Ethiopia

The spatiotemporal variability of the Land Use/Cover (LULC) is a strong influence on the land management and hydrological processes of a river basin. In particular in semi-arid regions like the Tekeze-Atbara (T-A) basin, accurate information about LULC change is a prerequisite for improved land and water management. The human-induced landscape transformations in the T-A basin, one of the main tributaries of the Nile River, were investigated for the last four decades (1972-2014). Separate LULC maps for the years 1972, 1989, 2001, and 2014 were developed based on satellite images, Geographic Information System (GIS) and ground information. Change detection analysis based on the transitional probability matrix was applied to identify systematic transitions among the LULC categories. The results show that >72% of the landscape has changed its category during the past 43years. LULC in the basin experienced significant shifts from one category to other categories by 61%, 47%, and 45%, in 1972-1989, 1989-2001, and 2001-2014, respectively. Although both net and swap (simultaneous gain and loss of a given LULC during a certain period) change occurred, the latter is more dominant. Natural vegetation cover, including forests, reduced drastically with the rapid expansion of crops, grazing areas and bare lands during the first two decades. However, vegetation started to recover since the 1990s, when some of the agricultural and bare lands have turned into vegetated areas. Forest land showed a continuous decreasing pattern, however, it has increased by 28% in the last period (2001-2014). In contrast, plantation trees have increased by 254% in the last three decades. The increase of vegetation cover is a result of intensive watershed management programs during the last two decades. The driving forces of changes were also discussed and rapid population growth and changing government policies were found to be the most important.

Transboundary sediment transfer from source to sink using a mineralogical analysis. Case study : Roseires Reservoir, Blue Nile, Sudan

ABSTRACT Sediment accumulation hampers optimal water resources management of reservoirs. In the Roseires Reservoir across the Blue Nile River, in Sudan, about 30% of the storage capacity has been lost by sedimentation before dam heightening (2012), despite regular sediment sluicing and flushing. At the same time, increasing soil erosion in the upper river basin in Ethiopia is significantly reducing land productivity.