Y. Q. Xie

A STATISTICAL SURVEY OF DYNAMIC PRESSURE PULSES IN THE SOLAR WIND BASED ON WIND OBSERVATIONS

Solar wind dynamic pressure pulse (DPP) structures, across which the dynamic pressure changes abruptly over timescales from a few seconds to several minutes, are often observed in the near-Earth space environment. The space weather effects of DPPs on the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling system have been widely investigated in the last two decades. In this study, we perform a statistical survey on the properties of DPPs near 1 AU based on nearly 20 years of observations from the WIND spacecraft. It is found that only a tiny fraction of DPPs (around 4.2%) can be regarded as interplanetary shocks. For most DPPs, the total pressure (the sum of the thermal pressure and magnetic pressure) remains in equilibrium, but there also exists a small fraction of DPPs that are not pressure-balanced. The overwhelming majority of DPPs are associated with solar wind disturbances, including coronal mass ejection-related flows, corotating interaction regions, as well as complex ejecta. The annual variations of the averaged occurrence rate of DPPs are roughly in phase with the solar activity during solar cycle 23, and during the rising phase of solar cycle 24.

AUTOMATIC DETECTION ALGORITHM OF DYNAMIC PRESSURE PULSES IN THE SOLAR WIND

Dynamic pressure pulses (DPPs) in the solar wind are a significant phenomenon closely related to the solar-terrestrial connection and physical processes of solar wind dynamics. In order to automatically identify DPPs from solar wind measurements, we develop a procedure with a three-step detection algorithm that is able to rapidly select DPPs from the plasma data stream and simultaneously define the transition region where large dynamic pressure variations occur and demarcate the upstream and downstream region by selecting the relatively quiet status before and after the abrupt change in dynamic pressure. To demonstrate the usefulness, efficiency, and accuracy of this procedure, we have applied it to the Wind observations from 1996 to 2008 by successfully obtaining the DPPs. The procedure can also be applied to other solar wind spacecraft observation data sets with different time resolutions.

Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm

Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather — “observing” and quantitative prediction — “palpating”, and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of “observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of “palpating”, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.

STRONG SOLAR WIND DYNAMIC PRESSURE PULSES: INTERPLANETARY SOURCES AND THEIR IMPACTS ON GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETIC FIELDS

In this investigation, we first present a statistical result of the interplanetary sources of very strong solar wind dynamic pressure pulses (DPPs) detected by WIND during solar cycle 23. It is found that the vast majority of strong DPPs reside within solar wind disturbances. Although the variabilities of geosynchronous magnetic fields (GMFs) due to the impact of positive DPPs have been well established, there appears to be no systematic investigations on the response of GMFs to negative DPPs. Here, we study both the decompression effects of very strong negative DPPs and the compression from strong positive DPPs on GMFs at different magnetic local time sectors. In response to the decompression of strong negative DPPs, GMFs on the dayside near dawn and near dusk on the nightside, are generally depressed. But near the midnight region, the responses of GMF are very diverse, being either positive or negative. For part of the events when GOES is located at the midnight sector, the GMF is found to abnormally increase as the result of magnetospheric decompression caused by negative DPPs. It is known that under certain conditions magnetic depression of nightside GMFs can be caused by the impact of positive DPPs. Here, we find that a stronger pressure enhancement may have a higher probability of producing the exceptional depression of GMF at the midnight region. Statistically, both the decompression effect of strong negative DPPs and the compression effect of strong positive DPPs depend on the magnetic local time, which are stronger at the noon sector.