Y. T. van der Schouw

General and Abdominal Adiposity and Risk of Death in Europe

BACKGROUND Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death. METHODS We examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We used a Cox regression analysis, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height. RESULTS During a mean follow-up of 9.7 years, 14,723 participants died. The lowest risks of death related to BMI were observed at a BMI of 25.3 for men and 24.3 for women. After adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were strongly associated with the risk of death. Relative risks among men and women in the highest quintile of waist circumference were 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80 to 2.33) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.56 to 2.04), respectively, and in the highest quintile of waist-to-hip ratio, the relative risks were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.84) and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.66), respectively. BMI remained significantly associated with the risk of death in models that included waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that both general adiposity and abdominal adiposity are associated with the risk of death and support the use of waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI in assessing the risk of death.

Phytoestrogens and breast cancer risk. Review of the epidemiological evidence.

Phytoestrogens are natural plant substances. The three main classes are isoflavones, coumestans, and lignans. Phytoestrogens have anticarcinogenic potential, but they have also significant estrogenic properties. For an evaluation of the effect of phytoestrogens on breast cancer risk we reviewed the analytical epidemiological data. A total of 18 studies were included [1–18]. Up to now, there are 13 studies that have assessed the direct relation between the individual dietary intake of soy products and the risk of breast cancer [1–13]. Overall, results do not show protective effects, with the exception maybe for women who consume phytoestrogens at adolescence or at very high doses [5, 7, 8]. Only four of these 13 studies are prospective, and none of them found statistically significant breast cancer reductions. Four studies assessed urinary isoflavones excretion in relation to breast cancer [14–17]. Three of these are case control studies [14–16], where excretion was measured after breast cancer occurrence and thus seriously limiting causal interpretation of the results. The only prospective study with urinary measurements before breast cancer occurrence was done in a Dutch postmenopausal population and showed a non-significant breast cancer risk reduction for high excretion [17]. Three studies measured enterolactone (lignan): two case control studies reported a preventive effect on breast cancer risk [14, 18], but the only prospective study did not [17]. In conclusion, few prospective studies (n = 5) were done to assess the effects of phytoestrogens on breast cancer risk. None of them found protective effects. However, these prospective studies did not focus on ‘age at consumption’, which seems to be important based on results from dietary case control studies done so far.

Prospect-EPIC Utrecht: Study design and characteristics of the cohort population

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), which has been established in order to investigate the relations between nutrition and cancer, was initiated in 1990 and involves 10 European countries with heterogeneous dietary patterns and differing cancer incidence rates. This manuscript presents the design, recruitment and baseline characteristics of the Prospect-EPIC cohort co-ordinated in Utrecht, The Netherlands. The cohort is based on volunteers recruited among women participating in a regional breast cancer screening program. It comprises of 17,357 subjects aged 50–69 years at enrolment from Utrecht and vicinity, who have consented to participate in the study and its follow-up. Each participant filled out a general questionnaire and a food frequency questionnaire. Participants were also physically examined and have donated a blood sample. Participation rate was 34.5%. Blood samples were donated by most participants (97.5%) and detailed informed consents were obtained from 87.4% of participants. Mean age at enrolment was 57 years. Anthropometric, lifestyle and morbidity characteristics of the cohort population did not differ largely from those of similar study populations in The Netherlands. Based on the Prospect-EPIC population, we intend to conduct prospective total cohort, nested case–control or case–cohort studies, in order to investigate relations between consumption of certain food groups or nutrients and chronic diseases, including hormone dependant cancers such as breast, colon, endometrial and ovary cancers.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

A high menaquinone intake reduces the incidence of coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM Vitamin K dependent proteins have been demonstrated to inhibit vascular calcification. Data on the effect of vitamin K intake on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, however, are scarce. To examine the relationship between dietary vitamins K(1) and K(2) intake, and its subtypes, and the incidence of CHD. METHODS AND RESULTS We used data from the Prospect-EPIC cohort consisting of 16,057 women, enrolled between 1993 and 1997 and aged 49-70 years, who were free of cardiovascular diseases at baseline. Intake of vitamin K and other nutrients was estimated with a food frequency questionnaire. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse the data. After a mean+/-SD follow-up of 8.1+/-1.6 years, we identified 480 incident cases of CHD. Mean vitamin K(1) intake was 211.7+/-100.3 microg/d and vitamin K(2) intake was 29.1+/-12.8 microg/d. After adjustment for traditional risk factors and dietary factors, we observed an inverse association between vitamin K(2) and risk of CHD with a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 0.91 [95% CI 0.85-1.00] per 10 microg/d vitamin K(2) intake. This association was mainly due to vitamin K(2) subtypes MK-7, MK-8 and MK-9. Vitamin K(1) intake was not significantly related to CHD. CONCLUSIONS A high intake of menoquinones, especially MK-7, MK-8 and MK-9, could protect against CHD. However, more research is necessary to define optimal intake levels of vitamin K intake for the prevention of CHD.

Endogenous sex hormone levels and cognitive function in aging men Is there an optimal level

Objective: To determine whether endogenous sex hormone levels are associated with cognitive functioning in men. Methods: Cognitive performance was assessed in 400 independently living men between ages 40 and 80 in a population-based cross-sectional study. Compound scores were calculated for memory function, processing capacity/speed, and executive function. The Mini-Mental State Examination was used as a measure of global cognitive function. The adjusted association of testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2) (total, bioavailable) with neuropsychological test scores in the total group and in subgroups was assessed by linear and logistic regression analysis. Results: Curvilinear associations were observed between T and memory performance and processing capacity/speed, suggesting optimal sex hormone levels. No association between E2 and cognitive functioning was found. After the population was subdivided into four age decades, a linear association of T with cognitive functioning in the oldest age category remained. No association was found in the other age decades. Lower bioavailable T levels were associated with lower scores on processing capacity/speed and executive function; β (95% CI) values were 0.36 (0.07 to 0.66) and 0.17 (−0.01 to 0.35). Similar results were observed for total T. Conclusions: Higher testosterone (T) levels are associated with better cognitive performance in the oldest age category. Apparent curvilinear associations between T and certain cognitive functions in men suggest an optimal hormone level for particular cognitive tasks and are explained by linear associations in the oldest age category.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

Context A recent overview of all CVD models applicable to diabetes patients is not available. Objective To review the primary prevention studies that focused on the development, validation and impact assessment of a cardiovascular risk model, scores or rules that can be applied to patients with type 2 diabetes. Design Systematic review. Data sources Medline was searched from 1966 to 1 April 2011. Study selection A study was eligible when it described the development, validation or impact assessment of a model that was constructed to predict the occurrence of cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes, or when the model was designed for use in the general population but included diabetes as a predictor. Data extraction A standardized form was sued to extract all data of the CVD models. Results 45 prediction models were identified, of which 12 were specifically developed for patients with type 2 diabetes. Only 31% of the risk scores has been externally validated in a diabetes population, with an area under the curve ranging from 0.61 to 0.86 and 0.59 to 0.80 for models developed in a diabetes population and in the general population, respectively. Only one risk score has been studied for its effect on patient management and outcomes. 10% of the risk scores are advocated in national diabetes guidelines. Conclusion Many cardiovascular risk scores are available that can be applied to patients with type 2 diabetes. A minority of these risk scores has been validated and tested for its predictive accuracy, with only a few showing a discriminative value of ≥0.80. The impact of applying these risk scores in clinical practice is almost completely unknown, but their use is recommended in various national guidelines.

Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study: the InterAct project.

OBJECTIVE To study the association between adherence to the Mediterranean dietary pattern (MDP) and risk of developing type 2 diabetes, across European countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We established a case-cohort study including 11,994 incident type 2 diabetic case subjects and a stratified subcohort of 15,798 participants selected from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The relative Mediterranean diet score (rMED) (score range 0–18) was used to assess adherence to MDP on the basis of reported consumption of nine dietary components characteristic of the Mediterranean diet. Cox proportional hazards regression, modified for the case-cohort design, was used to estimate the association between rMED and risk of type 2 diabetes, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS The multiple adjusted hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes among individuals with medium (rMED 7–10 points) and high adherence to MDP (rMED 11–18 points) were 0.93 (95% CI 0.86–1.01) and 0.88 (0.79–0.97), respectively, compared with individuals with low adherence to MDP (0–6 points) (P for trend 0.013). The association between rMED and type 2 diabetes was attenuated in people <50 years of age, in obese participants, and when the alcohol, meat, and olive oil components were excluded from the score. CONCLUSIONS In this large prospective study, adherence to the MDP, as defined by rMED, was associated with a small reduction in the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in this European population.

Reproductive and Lifestyle Determinants of Anti-Müllerian Hormone in a Large Population-based Study

CONTEXT Anti-müllerian hormone (AMH) is an ovarian reserve marker that is increasingly applied in clinical practice as a prognostic and diagnostic tool. Despite increased use of AMH in clinical practice, large-scale studies addressing the influence of possible determinants on AMH levels are scarce. OBJECTIVE We aimed to address the role of reproductive and lifestyle determinants of AMH in a large population-based cohort of women. DESIGN In this cross-sectional study, age-specific AMH percentiles were calculated using general linear modeling with CG-LMS (Cole and Green, Lambda, Mu, and Sigma model, an established method to calculate growth curves for children). SETTING Women from the general community participating in the Doetinchem Cohort study were assessed. PARTICIPANTS Two thousand three hundred twenty premenopausal women were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE The effect of female reproductive and lifestyle factors on shifts in age-specific AMH percentiles was studied. RESULTS In comparison to women with a regular menstrual cycle, current oral contraceptive (OC) users, women with menstrual cycle irregularity, and pregnant women had significantly lower age-specific AMH percentiles (for OC use, 11 percentiles lower; for cycle irregularity, 11 percentiles lower; and for pregnancy, 17 percentiles lower [P value for all <.0001]). Age at menarche and age at first childbirth were not associated with the age-specific AMH percentile. Higher parity was associated with 2 percentiles higher age-specific AMH (P = .02). Of the lifestyle factors investigated, current smoking was associated with 4 percentiles lower age-specific AMH percentiles (P = .02), irrespective of the smoking dose. Body mass index, waist circumference, alcohol consumption, physical exercise, and socioeconomic status were not significantly associated with age-specific AMH percentiles. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates that several reproductive and lifestyle factors are associated with age-specific AMH levels. The lower AMH levels associated with OC use and smoking seem reversible, as effects were confined to current use of OC or cigarettes. It is important to give careful consideration to the effect of such determinants when interpreting AMH in a clinical setting and basing patient management on AMH.

The association between vitamin D and cognition: A systematic review

Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency are a major health care problem. The association between vitamin D levels and cognitive function is still under debate. We conducted a systematic review to assess the association between levels of vitamin D and cognition. Therefore, the databases of Embase and Pubmed were searched through June 2012 for observational studies relating vitamin D levels to cognition. Our initial search yielded 2182 articles. After applying exclusion criteria, there were 28 studies eligible for inclusion: 25 cross-sectional and 6 prospective studies (3 studies show cross-sectional as well as prospective data). The main finding of the 25 cross-sectional studies was a statistically significant worse outcome on one or more cognitive function tests or a higher frequency of dementia with lower vitamin D levels or intake in 18 out of 25 (72%) studies, whereas 7 (28%) studies failed to show an association. Four out of 6 (66.7%) prospective studies showed a higher risk of cognitive decline after a follow-up period of 4-7 years in participants with lower vitamin D levels at baseline. In conclusion, this review supports the hypothesis that hypovitaminosis D is associated with worse outcome on one or more cognitive function tests or a higher frequency of dementia in cross-sectional as well as prospective studies. Further studies should focus on the role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention of cognitive decline in participants with low vitamin D levels.