Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol

A Quantile Regression Analysis of Price Transmission in Thai Rice Markets

We analyze the price efficiency by investigating the backward and forward transmissions of prices from the wholesale markets for white rice to and from the farm level. We compare the price transmissions at different price levels. This study utilizes monthly price data at farm and wholesale markets of white rice during 1997 to 2012. The effect of the structural change due to the price insurance program is considered. The quantile cointegration regression model is used in the empirical analysis. The findings reveal the existence of asymmetry in most aspects of the price transmission of farm-white rice markets. In the backward transmission (from wholesale to farm), asymmetric adjustment did occur but at only low prices and it was in favor of farmers. Asymmetry persists in the price transmission in the forward direction (farm to wholesale markets) at all price levels. The price insurance program had statistically significant effects on elasticities of transmission at almost all price levels but their effects were numerically very small. As backward transmission is in favor of farmers, an appropriate credit program is strongly recommended to manage timely sale of paddy.

Economic Determinants of Long-Term Equilibrium in Malaysian Tourist Arrivals to Thailand: Implications for Tourism Policy

This paper analyzes the nature and determinants of long-term equilibrium in the number of tourist arrivals from Malaysia to Thailand. Most previous studies on international tourism demand have used annual data and ordinary least squares estimation to examine tourist arrivals from a particular country of origin. However, those studies included some exogenous variables on the right-hand side of the equation; and hence may have incorrectly applied Johansens co-integration methodology. In this paper, univariate time series Engle-Granger [3] co-integration analysis is applied to 1991-2005 quarterly data on Malay real gross domestic product per capita, Malay real private consumption expenditures per capita, and the real exchange rate index of the Thai baht to the Malaysian ringgit. We use the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF Test) to perform a unit root test; the Engle and Granger Method [3] to validate the long-run equilibrium relationship; and finally an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) equation to estimate coefficients. All hypothesized economic determinants were found to bear a significant long-run equilibrium relationship, with the expected sign, to the number of Malaysian tourist arrivals to Thailand. The Thai government should therefore (a) maintain the real exchange rate close to parity and (b) advertise heavily in the Malay media, during the ascendant phase of GDP and per capita spending of the Malaysian business cycle.

Trade Offs of Income between Crops for Agricultural Purpose and Energy Purpose in a Community Level

This research aims to study decision approach in using resources together with tradeoffs between income from growing crops for food and for biofuel. The study used data from survey in 2013 from 870 agriculturists in Tambol Nikhom Thung Phothalay, Muang District, Kamphangphet Province. To achieve in finding net profit together with energy security in a community level, Interactive Fuzzy Linear Programming with Fuzzy Parameters have been used. Result of the study reveals that highest net profit and satisfaction level come from growing rice, followed by cassava, sugar cane, and maize. In situation of lack of resources (water supply and labor) and slump in agricultural product price, the community would have more income from crops that produce ethanol (tapioca chips and sugar cane) to substitute income from food-producing crops, together with higher energy security in community level.