Yitan Li

Pretty Prudent or Rhetorically Responsive? The American Public's Support for Military Action

In the United States, public support can play a crucial role in the decisions to initiate and terminate military action. Some scholars argue that the public holds “prudent” opinions regarding the use of the military—supporting efforts to stop aggression but not to engage in nation building. We argue that what seems like a “prudent” opinion may be driven more by the White House’s rhetoric. Experimental tests show that the rhetorical complexity has a more powerful impact on the respondent’s support for military action than the actual policy goal, although this result is substantially tempered by political awareness.

Diversionary Dragons, or "Talking Tough in Taipei": Cross-Strait Relations in the New Millennium

Much has been written on the triangular, and increasingly high-profile, ChinaTaiwan-US relations. However, scholars have yet to apply Diversionary Theory to the China-Taiwan dyad. DT argues that leaders may resort to international conflict when domestic political and economic situations become troublesome, aiming at directing public attention away from problems at home. While creation of explicit military conflict in the Taiwan Strait by Taipei is deemed quite unlikely, more subtle processes of diversion might be expected instead. This article applies a variant on DT to assess whether leaders in Taipei have used rhetoric about Taiwan independence or unification as a distraction from domestic problems during the years leading up to Taiwan’s 2004 presidential election. We find that, as the president’s approval sinks, pro-independence rhetoric becomes more likely. Overall, the results of this study confirm extension of DT to the case of Taiwan and encourage further research applied to middle powers.

State Religion and Discrimination Against Ethnic Minorities

We address two issues neglected in cross-national ethnic conflict literature: the role of state religious exclusivity (SRE) in ethnic conflict and the causes of discrimination against ethnic minorities. We use data from the Minorities at Risk (MAR), Polity, and Religion and State (RAS) datasets to assess whether SRE influences the extent of discrimination and repression against ethnic minorities between 1990 and 2002. The results show that SRE is strongly and significantly associated with discrimination and repression against ethnic minorities. This is true both of ethno-religious minorities and ethnic minorities who are not religiously distinct from the majority group in the state.

Cross-Strait Relations in the Aftermath of the Election of Chen Shui-bian

he Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) enters the new millennium as an ecoT nomic powerhouse and one of the world’s fledgling democracies. In fact, Taiwan is now described officially by the U.S. Department of State as a “multi-party democracy.” In March 2000, the island elected a new president-the first opposition candidate to win the office of the presidency in the history of the ROC. It is clear that momentous changes have come to Taiwan. However, dramatic transformations in Taipei’s relations with archrival Beijing have not accompanied these changes. In this article we examine the Chen Shui-bian administration’s approach to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Beijing’s perceptions of the new government and its policies. It is our suggestion that, despite fears that the election might have put Beijing and Taipei on a collision course, the new administration has proved surprisingly pragmatic in its ties with the PRC. At the same time, however, it is an exaggeration for the Chen administration and its supporters to contend that there exists a “stabilization” that bodes well for cross-strait relations and for peace and stability in the Western Pacific. The potential for a sharp and dangerous escalation in tensions remains.

Generation Matters: Taiwan’s Perceptions of Mainland China and Attitudes Towards Cross-Strait Trade Talks

Abstract It has been widely assumed that perceptions about mutual relationships positively influence attitudes toward trade talks. The Sunflower Movement in Taiwan that took place in the spring of 2014 seemed to create an empirical puzzle, leading observers to believe that Taiwan’s younger generations hold conservative attitudes about trade talks with Mainland China. This study, based on an analysis of representative data collected before the movement, suggests that younger generations in Taiwan are hostile to Mainland China politically but support trade talks. In summary, the authors find that family orientation, national/ethnic identification, state/country identification, belief in Taiwan’s democratic impact, and generation serve as critical factors in the formation of positive attitudes toward trade talks. These findings contribute to the literature by providing a deeper insight into the dynamics of the Sunflower Movement and updating the political orientation profile of Taiwanese voters.

Presidential approval and macroeconomic conditions: evidence from a nonlinear model

ABSTRACT Contrary to previous empirical studies that find a linear link between economic conditions and presidential approval, this study argues for and finds a nonlinear relationship. A threshold regression is used to assess potential nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic variables and presidential popularity. A quarterly data analysis for the 1960Q1–2012Q2 time period reveals that domestic factors prevail in shaping presidential approval. Most compelling is evidence of a threshold relationship involving economic conditions: When unemployment is slightly over 7%, its decline impacts significantly and favourably on presidential approval, an effect that virtually disappears below the threshold value. Change in consumer sentiment affects presidential approval in a limited way, while inflation shows no association at all. These results combine to encourage further investigation of nonlinear processes in the nexus of economics and politics.