Frank C. S. Liu

CONSTRAINED OPINION LEADER INFLUENCE IN AN ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN SEASON: REVISITING THE TWO-STEP FLOW THEORY WITH MULTI-AGENT SIMULATION

The conventional wisdom derived from the two-step flow theory suggests that opinion leaders have great influence on their followers. However, it has been difficult for social scientists to measure and describe the extent to which political opinion leaders influence voters, especially when voters today access multiple information sources like communication networks and self-selected news media. This paper fills this gap by using agent-based modeling to represent what the two-step flow theory describes about opinion leader influence and refines the theory based on the findings. First, opinion leader influence does not diffuse to the public without homogeneous communication networks. Second, opinion leader influence usually does not diffuse widely to the public because it inevitably faces resistance from self-strengthening communication networks.

Perceived Partisan Heterogeneity in Communication Networks and Changes in Party Choice in a National Election: Evidence From Taiwan

Partisan voters who change their voting choice on election day account for a small proportion of the electorate, but play a decisive role in a close election. Paul Beck’s (2002) social-support theory of partisan defection states that a voter who perceives support for a candidate of the opposite party from his or her communication network is likely to defect. This study examines Beck’s theory in the context of data collected in Taiwan after the 2004 presidential election. This election was marked by competition between two camps, making it the first campaign in Taiwan’s history that resembled a two-party system. Besides providing an empirical test of the theory, this article shows that Pan-Green Camp supporters are more volatile than Pan-Blue Camp supporters, and it identifies the major factors associated with this pattern.

Polarized News Media and the Polarization of the Electorate

An increasing amount of empirical evidence suggests that in democracies that usually divide into two camps during a campaign season, the news media environment is fragmented and polarized. An emerging concern is whether the electorate in such divided societies would be pulled by polarized news media outlets and become polarized as well. This study, employing a series of agent-based simulations that takes into account polarized news media, communication networks, and individual differences all together, explores the effect of a polarized news environment on increases in extremist opinions and in the proportion of individuals with divided communication networks. It also identifies circumstances under which individuals perceive division within their communication networks. The findings suggest that the effect of a polarized news media environment on polarizing the electorate may be overestimated, while the homogenizing effect of communication networks may be underestimated.

Generation Matters: Taiwan’s Perceptions of Mainland China and Attitudes Towards Cross-Strait Trade Talks

Abstract It has been widely assumed that perceptions about mutual relationships positively influence attitudes toward trade talks. The Sunflower Movement in Taiwan that took place in the spring of 2014 seemed to create an empirical puzzle, leading observers to believe that Taiwan’s younger generations hold conservative attitudes about trade talks with Mainland China. This study, based on an analysis of representative data collected before the movement, suggests that younger generations in Taiwan are hostile to Mainland China politically but support trade talks. In summary, the authors find that family orientation, national/ethnic identification, state/country identification, belief in Taiwan’s democratic impact, and generation serve as critical factors in the formation of positive attitudes toward trade talks. These findings contribute to the literature by providing a deeper insight into the dynamics of the Sunflower Movement and updating the political orientation profile of Taiwanese voters.

Validation And Agent-Based Modeling: A Practice Of Contrasting Simulation Results With Empirical Data

As an emerging approach to explore the dynamics of voter preference, agent-based modeling (ABM) highlights new opportunities for intellectual exchange across disciplines, such as mathematics, political science, communication studies, and computer science. By aiming to contribute to cross-disciplinary communication for a better application of this approach, this paper summarizes what scholars have done about internal and external validation and presents a comparison between statistical analysis based on datasets generated in a laboratory and analysis based on corresponding empirical datasets. The results of the comparison suggest that, although there is no perfect matching, the comparison reveals some similarities in terms of increase or decrease in the proportion of different types of agents. This result further implies that an internally valid ABM model may lead to a certain level of external validity.

When objective group membership and subjective ethnic identification don’t align: How identification shapes intergroup bias through self-enhancement and perceived threat

When objective group membership and subjective ethnic identification don’t align, which has a greater impact on how people feel towards the groups they affiliate with, and why? Deprived of many distinctiveness markers typically found in intergroup relations (e.g., physical features, obvious status differences), Taiwanese society provides a perfect natural context to explore the impact of objective group membership (Taiwanese nationality) versus subjective ethnic identification (Taiwanese or Chinese) on intergroup bias. Results from representative telephone (N = 1,060) and Internet (N = 500) surveys demonstrated that even among participants with no visible distinctiveness markers or differences in social status, subjective ethnic identification contributed to intergroup bias in favor of Taiwanese over Chinese Mainlanders (main effect). Both self-enhancement (collective self-esteem as Taiwanese) and perceived threat from Chinese Mainlanders helped account for this finding (mediation effects). Implications for intergroup relations are discussed.

The Spiral of Deinstitutionalization Untangled: An Observation about the Field Opinion within Kuomintang against Public Opinion during the 2016 Presidential Election Campaign

As political scientists start applying the complex-system approach to study party politics and as business scholars start to apply communication theories to study deinstitutionalization, we prospect a new possibility to study and explain politics within a political party. This study employs a systematically collected field observation data to evaluate Clemente and Roulet’s (2015) “the spiral of deinstitutionalization” framework. Based on analysis of news events and internal reports within Kuomintang from April 20 to October 17, 2015, we believe that this framework facilitates explanation about how the decision of nominating Hung Hsiu-Chu as the party’s first female presidential candidate was replaced three months before the Election Day. We interpret the whole story and provide details that contribute to enriching the framework for future organizational and political party research.

Taiwanese Voters’ Political Identification Profile, 2013–2014: Becoming One China or Creating a New Country?

This study summarizes critical factors that influence a voter’s choice between the appellations “Taiwan” and “Republic of China,” a subject that has not been systematically studied so far. When the legitimacy of “Republic of China” is considered, Taiwanese voters’ political identity pattern reveals itself to be more complicated than simply a choice between unification with China and independence.

From Internal Validation to Sensitivity Test: How Grid Computing Facilitates the Construction of an Agent-Based Simulation in Social Sciences

Over the past decades, we see a trend that social scientists adopt the experiment approach to study our social and political world. Particularly, agent-based modelling (ABM) is employed as a tool for “thought experiment” because theorists usually (1) fall short of empirical data to contrast with experiment results and (2) are more interested in solving theoretical puzzles than empirical puzzles. Applications of ABM in the social sciences, therefore, are commonly centered on issues that do not require a serious empirical validation process, at least compared to empirical data. Consequently, current application of ABM in social sciences (except the field of business management) has not reached the stage of sound validation and verification (V&V). To take a further step out of this situation, we suggest that researchers adopting computer-based approach conduct sensitivity test of their models. This step at least ensures that simulation results are robust and trust worthy. Few scholars in this field, however, are aware of the utility of grid and cloud computing that can advance the application of ABM. This paper is devoted to bridge the two sides (grid computing and political science) by, first, describing how grid and cloud computing may help the design of an agent-based model. Second, we will present an example of (re)constructing the SRAS model of political