Yizhen Li

Suppression of the 2010 Alexandrium fundyense bloom by changes in physical, biological, and chemical properties of the Gulf of Maine

For the period 2005-2009, the abundance of resting cysts in bottom sediments from the preceding fall was a first-order predictor of the overall severity of spring-summer blooms of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine and southern New England. Cyst abundance off mid-coast Maine was significantly higher in fall 2009 than it was preceding a major regional bloom in 2005. A seasonal ensemble forecast was computed using a range of forcing conditions for the period 2004-2009, suggesting that a large bloom was likely in the western Gulf of Maine in 2010. This did not materialize, perhaps because environmental conditions in spring-summer 2010 were not favorable for growth of A.fundyense. Water mass anomalies indicate a regional-scale change in circulation with direct influence on A. fundyenses niche. Specifically, near-surface waters were warmer, fresher, more stratified, and had lower nutrients than during the period of observations used to construct the ensemble forecast. Moreover, a weaker-than-normal coastal current lessened A. fundyense transport into the western Gulf of Maine and Massachusetts Bay. Satellite ocean color observations indicate the 2010 spring phytoplankton bloom was more intense than usual. Early-season nutrient depletion may have caused a temporal mismatch with A. fundyenses endogenous clock that regulates the timing of cyst germination. These findings highlight the difficulties of ecological forecasting in a changing oceanographic environment, and underscore the need for a sustained observational network to drive such forecasts.

Investigation of the 2006 Alexandrium fundyense bloom in the Gulf of Maine: In-situ observations and numerical modeling

In situ observations and a coupled bio-physical model were used to study the germination, initiation, and development of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) Alexandrium fundyense bloom in 2006. Hydrographic measurements and comparisons with GOM climatology indicate that 2006 was a year with normal coastal water temperature, salinity, current and river runoff conditions. A. fundyense cyst abundance in bottom sediments preceding the 2006 bloom was at a moderate level compared to other recent annual cyst survey data. We used the coupled bio-physical model to hindcast coastal circulation and A. fundyense cell concentrations. Field data including water temperature, salinity, velocity time series and surface A. fundyense cell concentration maps were applied to gauge the models fidelity. The coupled model is capable of reproducing the hydrodynamics and the temporal and spatial distributions of A. fundyense cell concentration reasonably well. Model hindcast solutions were further used to diagnose physical and biological factors controlling the bloom dynamics. Surface wind fields modulated the blooms horizontal and vertical distribution. The initial cyst distribution was found to be the dominant factor affecting the severity and the interannual variability of the A. fundyense bloom. Initial cyst abundance for the 2006 bloom was about 50% of that prior to the 2005 bloom. As the result, the time-averaged gulf-wide cell concentration in 2006 was also only about 60% of that in 2005. In addition, weaker alongshore currents and episodic upwelling-favorable winds in 2006 reduced the spatial extent of the bloom as compared with 2005.

Connectivity in the Intra-American Seas and implications for potential larval transport

Abstract A major challenge in marine ecology is to describe patterns of larval dispersal and population connectivity, as well as their underlying processes. We re-assessed broad-scale population connectivity with a focus on the 18 coral reef hot spots in the Intra-American Seas described in Roberts (Science 278:1454–1457, 1997), by including seasonal and inter-annual variability in potential larval dispersal. While overall dispersal patterns were in agreement with previous findings, further statistical analyses show that dispersal patterns driven by mean circulation initially described by Roberts (Science 278:1454–1457, 1997) can significantly underestimate particle connectivity envelopes. The results from this study indicate that seasonal and inter-annual variability in circulation are crucial in modulating both dispersal distance and directional anisotropy of virtual larvae over most coral reef sites and that certain larval hotspots are likely more strongly connected than originally thought. Improved larval dispersal transport envelopes can enhance the accuracy of probability estimates which, in turn, may help to explain episodic larval settlement in certain times and places, and guide spatial management such as marine protected areas.

Predictability of the Loop Current Variation and Eddy Shedding Process in the Gulf of Mexico Using an Artificial Neural Network Approach

AbstractA novel approach based on an artificial neural network was used to forecast sea surface height (SSH) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in order to predict Loop Current variation and its eddy shedding process. The empirical orthogonal function analysis method was applied to decompose long-term satellite-observed SSH into spatial patterns (EOFs) and time-dependent principal components (PCs). The nonlinear autoregressive network was then developed to predict major PCs of the GoM SSH in the future. The prediction of SSH in the GoM was constructed by multiplying the EOFs and predicted PCs. Model sensitivity experiments were conducted to determine the optimal number of PCs. Validations against independent satellite observations indicate that the neural network–based model can reliably predict Loop Current variations and its eddy shedding process for a 4-week period. In some cases, an accurate forecast for 5–6 weeks is possible.

Variational data assimilative modeling of the Gulf of Maine in spring and summer 2010

A data assimilative ocean circulation model is used to hindcast the Gulf of Maine [GOM) circulation in spring and summer 2010. Using the recently developed incremental strong constraint 4D Variational data assimilation algorithm, the model assimilates satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles measured by expendable bathythermograph, Argo floats, and shipboard CTD casts. Validation against independent observations shows that the model skill is significantly improved after data assimilation. The data-assimilative model hindcast reproduces the temporal and spatial evolution of the ocean state, showing that a sea level depression southwest of the Scotian Shelf played a critical role in shaping the gulf-wide circulation. Heat budget analysis further demonstrates that both advection and surface heat flux contribute to temperature variability. The estimated time scale for coastal water to travel from the Scotian Shelf to the Jordan Basin is around 60 days, which is consistent with previous estimates based on in situ observations. Our study highlights the importance of resolving upstream and offshore forcing conditions in predicting the coastal circulation in the GOM.