Ruoying He

West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1999 spring transition

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a fall transition as the net heat flux changes from warming to cooling. Using in situ data and a numerical model we investigate the circulation on the west Florida shelf (WFS) for the fall transition of 1998. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind, air pressure, and heat flux fields, plus river inflows. After comparison with observations the model is used to draw inferences on the seasonal and synoptic scale features of the shelf circulation. By running twin experiments, one without and the other with an idealized Loop Current (LC), we explore the relative importance of local versus deep-ocean forcing. We find that local forcing largely controls the inner-shelf circulation, including changes from the Florida Panhandle in the north to regions farther south. The effects of the LC in fall 1998 are to reinforce the mid-shelf currents and to increase the across-shelf transports in the bottom Ekman layer, thereby accentuating the shoreward transport of cold, nutrient rich water of deep-ocean origin. A three-dimensional analysis of the temperature budget reveals that surface heat flux largely controls both the seasonal and synoptic scale temperature variations. Surface cooling leads to convective mixing that rapidly alters temperature gradients. One interesting consequence is that upwelling can result in near-shore warming as warmer offshore waters are advected landward. The temperature balances on the shelf are complex and fully three-dimensional.

A Loop Current Intrusion Case Study on the West Florida Shelf

The Gulf of Mexico Loop Current intruded upon the West Florida continental shelf in June 2000. In situ currents and hydrography along with satellite temperature and altimetry measurements are used to describe this event and its effects on the shelf. A strong southward current is observed to flow along the shelf slope seaward of the intruded water boundary. This current transported cold, nutrient-rich water from the north, thereby producing anomalous hydrographic features near the shelf break (80-m isobath). An array of moored velocity profilers reveals that the currents landward of the intruded water are independent of the Loop Current and primarily driven by local winds. A series of idealized numerical model simulations inclusive of forcing by both the Loop Current and local winds confirm the observational findings that the shelfbreak currents are largely Loop Current controlled while the shelf currents are largely controlled by the local winds.

Tides on the West Florida Shelf

The principal semidiurnal (M2 and S2) and diurnal (K1 and O1) tidal constituents are described on the west Florida continental shelf (WFS) using a combination of in situ measurements and a three-dimensional, primitive equation numerical model. The measurements are of sea level and currents along the coastline and across the shelf, respectively. The model extends from west of the Mississippi River to the Florida Keys with an open boundary arcing between. It is along this open boundary that the regional model is forced by a global tide model. Standard barotropic tidal analyses are performed for both the data and the model, and quantifiable metrics are provided for comparison. Based on these comparisons, the authors present coamplitude and cophase charts for sea level and velocity hodographs for currents. The semidiurnal constituents show marked spatial variability, whereas the diurnal constituents are spatially more uniform. Apalachicola Bay is a demarcation point for the semidiurnal tides that are well developed to the southeast along the WFS but are minimal to the west. The largest semidiurnal tides are in the Florida Big Bend and Florida Bay regions with a relative minimum in between just to the south of Tampa Bay. These spatial distributions may be explained on the basis of local geometry. A Lagrangian Stokes drift, coherently directed toward the northwest, is identified but is of relatively small magnitude when compared with the potential for particle transport by seasonal and synoptic-scale forcing. Bottom stressinduced tidal mixing is examined and estimates are made of the bottom logarithmic layer height by the M2 tidal currents.

Simulating Oil Droplet Dispersal from the Deepwater Horizon Spill with a Lagrangian Approach

An analytical multiphase plume model, combined with time-varying flow and hydrographic fields generated by the 3-D South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico model (SABGOM) hydrodynamic model, were used as input to a Lagrangian transport model (LTRANS), to simulate transport of oil droplets dispersed at depth from the recent Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill. The plume model predicts a stratification-dominated near field, in which small oil droplets detrain from the central plume containing faster rising large oil droplets and gas bubbles and become trapped by density stratification. Simulated intrusion (trap) heights of ~ 310–370 m agree well with the midrange of Q1 conductivity-temperature-depth observations, though the simulated variation in trap height was lower than observed, presumably in part due to unresolved variability in source composition (percentage oil versus gas) and location (multiple leaks during first half of spill). Simulated droplet trajectories by the SABGOM-LTRANS modeling system showed that droplets with diameters between 10 and 50 μm formed a distinct subsurface plume, which was transported horizontally and remained in the subsurface for >1 month. In contrast, droplets with diameters ≥90 μm rose rapidly to the surface. Simulated trajectories of droplets ≤50 μ mi n diameter were found to be consistent with field observations of a southwest-tending subsurface plume in late June 2010 reported by Camilli et al. [2010]. Model results suggest that the subsurface plume looped around to the east, with potential subsurface oil transport to the northeast and southeast. Ongoing work is focusing on adding degradation processes to the model to constrain droplet dispersal.

Tracking the long-distance dispersal of marine organisms: sensitivity to ocean model resolution

Ocean circulation models are widely used to simulate organism transport in the open sea, where challenges of directly tracking organisms across vast spatial and temporal scales are daunting. Many recent studies tout the use of ‘high-resolution’ models, which are forced with atmospheric data on the scale of several hours and integrated with a time step of several minutes or seconds. However, in many cases, the models outputs that are used to simulate organism movement have been averaged to considerably coarser resolutions (e.g. monthly mean velocity fields). To examine the sensitivity of tracking results to ocean circulation model output resolution, we took the native model output of one of the most sophisticated ocean circulation models available, the Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, and averaged it to commonly implemented spatial and temporal resolutions in studies of basin-scale dispersal. Comparisons between simulated particle trajectories and in situ near-surface drifter trajectories indicated that ‘over averaging’ model output yields predictions inconsistent with observations. Further analyses focused on the dispersal of juvenile sea turtles indicate that very different inferences regarding the pelagic ecology of these animals are obtained depending on the resolution of model output. We conclude that physical processes occurring at the scale of days and tens of kilometres should be preserved in ocean circulation model output to realistically depict the movement marine organisms and the resulting ecological and evolutionary processes.

Historic 2005 toxic bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine : 2. Coupled biophysical numerical modeling

A coupled physical/biological modeling system was used to hindcast the 2005 Alexandrium fundyense bloom in the Gulf of Maine and investigate the relative importance of factors governing the blooms initiation and development. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine (GOM) using a multi-nested configuration, and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system was forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields. Extensive comparisons were made between simulated (both physical and biological) fields and in-situ observations, revealing that the hindcast model is capable of reproducing the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the 2005 bloom. Sensitivity experiments were then performed to distinguish the roles of three major factors hypothesized to contribute to the bloom: 1) the high abundance of cysts in western GOM sediments; 2) strong northeaster storms with prevailing downwelling-favorable winds; and 3) a large amount of fresh water input due to abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt. Results suggested that the high abundance of cysts in western GOM was the primary factor of the 2005 bloom. Wind forcing was an important regulator, as episodic bursts of northeast winds caused onshore advection of offshore populations. These downwelling favorable winds accelerated the alongshore flow, resulting in transport of high cell concentrations into Massachusetts Bay. A large regional bloom would still have happened, however, even with normal or typical winds for that period. Anomalously high river runoff in 2005 resulted in stronger buoyant plumes/currents, which facilitated the transport of cell population to the western GOM. While affecting nearshore cell abundance in Massachusetts Bay, the buoyant plumes were confined near to the coast, and had limited impact on the gulf-wide bloom distribution.

Sea Surface Temperature Patterns on the West Florida Shelf Using Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Maps

Neural network analyses based on the self-organizing map (SOM) and the growing hierarchical selforganizing map (GHSOM) are used to examine patterns of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the West Florida Shelf from time series of daily SST maps from 1998 to 2002. Four characteristic SST patterns are extracted in the first-layer GHSOM array: winter and summer season patterns, and two transitional patterns. Three of them are further expanded in the second layer, yielding more detailed structures in these seasons. The winter pattern is one of low SST, with isotherms aligned approximately along isobaths. The summer pattern is one of high SST distributed in a horizontally uniform manner. The spring transition includes a midshelf cold tongue. Similar analyses performed on SST anomaly data provide further details of these seasonally varying patterns. It is demonstrated that the GHSOM analysis is more effective in extracting the inherent SST patterns than the widely used EOF method. The underlying patterns in a dataset can be visualized in the SOM array in the same form as the original data, while they can only be expressed in anomaly form in the EOF analysis. Some important features, such as asymmetric SST anomaly patterns of winter/summer and cold/warm tongues, can be revealed by the SOM array but cannot be identified in the lowest mode EOF patterns. Also, unlike the EOF or SOM techniques, the hierarchical structure in the input data can be extracted by the GHSOM analysis.

Suppression of the 2010 Alexandrium fundyense bloom by changes in physical, biological, and chemical properties of the Gulf of Maine

For the period 2005-2009, the abundance of resting cysts in bottom sediments from the preceding fall was a first-order predictor of the overall severity of spring-summer blooms of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine and southern New England. Cyst abundance off mid-coast Maine was significantly higher in fall 2009 than it was preceding a major regional bloom in 2005. A seasonal ensemble forecast was computed using a range of forcing conditions for the period 2004-2009, suggesting that a large bloom was likely in the western Gulf of Maine in 2010. This did not materialize, perhaps because environmental conditions in spring-summer 2010 were not favorable for growth of A.fundyense. Water mass anomalies indicate a regional-scale change in circulation with direct influence on A. fundyenses niche. Specifically, near-surface waters were warmer, fresher, more stratified, and had lower nutrients than during the period of observations used to construct the ensemble forecast. Moreover, a weaker-than-normal coastal current lessened A. fundyense transport into the western Gulf of Maine and Massachusetts Bay. Satellite ocean color observations indicate the 2010 spring phytoplankton bloom was more intense than usual. Early-season nutrient depletion may have caused a temporal mismatch with A. fundyenses endogenous clock that regulates the timing of cyst germination. These findings highlight the difficulties of ecological forecasting in a changing oceanographic environment, and underscore the need for a sustained observational network to drive such forecasts.

Investigation of the 2006 Alexandrium fundyense bloom in the Gulf of Maine: In-situ observations and numerical modeling

In situ observations and a coupled bio-physical model were used to study the germination, initiation, and development of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) Alexandrium fundyense bloom in 2006. Hydrographic measurements and comparisons with GOM climatology indicate that 2006 was a year with normal coastal water temperature, salinity, current and river runoff conditions. A. fundyense cyst abundance in bottom sediments preceding the 2006 bloom was at a moderate level compared to other recent annual cyst survey data. We used the coupled bio-physical model to hindcast coastal circulation and A. fundyense cell concentrations. Field data including water temperature, salinity, velocity time series and surface A. fundyense cell concentration maps were applied to gauge the models fidelity. The coupled model is capable of reproducing the hydrodynamics and the temporal and spatial distributions of A. fundyense cell concentration reasonably well. Model hindcast solutions were further used to diagnose physical and biological factors controlling the bloom dynamics. Surface wind fields modulated the blooms horizontal and vertical distribution. The initial cyst distribution was found to be the dominant factor affecting the severity and the interannual variability of the A. fundyense bloom. Initial cyst abundance for the 2006 bloom was about 50% of that prior to the 2005 bloom. As the result, the time-averaged gulf-wide cell concentration in 2006 was also only about 60% of that in 2005. In addition, weaker alongshore currents and episodic upwelling-favorable winds in 2006 reduced the spatial extent of the bloom as compared with 2005.

Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the 21st century influenced by changes in climate, land use, and atmospheric CO2

Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter climate change) would influence river discharge, but the relative importance of climate change, land use, and elevated atmospheric CO2 have not yet been fully investigated. A process-based projection for the Mississippi River basin suggests that river discharge would be substantially enhanced (10.7–59.8%) by the 2090s compared to the recent decade (2000s), although large discrepancies exist among different climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use change scenarios. Our factorial analyses further indicate that the combined effects of land use change and human-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation on river discharge would outweigh climate change effect under the high-emission scenario (A2) of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, while climate change would still play the dominant role under the low-emission scenario (B1). This study highlights the important role of anthropogenic factors in influencing future hydrological processes and water resources.