Yoram Shiftan

Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system

Abstract Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertainty regarding the future effect of a given policy package on the transportation system and the urban environment. In this paper, we suggest and use a scenario approach to explore the future development of the Tel-Aviv Metropolitan Area (TAMA). We have constructed two scenarios for the future development of the TAMA: an expected scenario and a desired scenario. The scenarios were constructed by means of a two-round Delphi expert-based survey. Based on the opinion of the experts, our research examines the potential policy measures, which may contribute to a sustainable transportation system in Tel-Aviv. The development of both expected and desired scenarios helped to analyze the feasibility of the desired scenario and assess the likelihood of implementation of its different elements. According to the results, the key elements in the desired scenario are a highly developed public transport system, better coordination between the spatial development and the transportation system, high parking fees, congestion pricing and maintaining the functional role of the Central Business District area. The expected scenario shares many common elements with the desired scenario, which is considered a positive result.

Practical Approach to Model Trip Chaining

The need to model trip chaining has been discussed widely in the travel demand literature, but new approaches generally have been limited to academic research. Trip chaining was modeled in an actual urban area model. The model was developed for Boise, Idaho, on the basis of a household survey of 1,600 households. For this model, a tour was defined as a sequence of trip segments that start at home and end at home. The model distinguishes between two main types of tours: A tour that includes one or more work destinations is defined as a work-related tour (WRT); all other tours are defined as nonwork-related tours (NWRT). A model system was developed by assuming the hierarchy of the model components. The highest-level model estimates auto ownership for the household. On the basis of auto ownership, the frequency of WRT is estimated, and on the basis of the frequency of WRT, the frequency of NWRT is modeled. These three model components produce the number of WRT and NWRT for each household. All subsequent models are estimated at the tour level. The WRT model system includes work destination choice model, tour type model including the number of stops on the way to and from work and midday trips, and secondary destination choice model for all nonwork destinations. The NWRT model was developed in the same way with some structural differences.

Modeling response to parking policy

Parking policy is one of the most powerful means urban planners and policy makers can use to manage travel demand and traffic in city centers. Since urban access is considered crucial to the economic success of a downtown area, certain constituencies, such as business and retail, have historically been opposed to any parking-restriction policies. To address these concerns and create appropriate parking policies, it is important to understand how visitors to the city center are likely to respond to new policies. A model to estimate the likely response to two parking-policy alternatives in the Carmel Center area of Haifa, Israel, is presented: an increase in parking cost and a decrease in parking availability that will increase driver search time for parking. The model is based on the responses of center visitors to a stated preference survey. Three different models were estimated: a binary model, a multinomial logit, and a nested model. The results show that workers are more likely to change their mode or time of day of travel than to change destination or cancel their activity. Nonworkers are likely to make all types of changes, and for all policies, they are more sensitive than workers. These results suggest that parking measures may be effective in reducing congestion in the business district. However, they may also have a negative effect on the vitality of the business district as shoppers and other visitors are likely to go to other places in response to the change.

Augmented Betweenness Centrality for Environmentally Aware Traffic Monitoring in Transportation Networks

Network planning and traffic flow optimization require the acquisition and analysis of large quantities of data such as the network topology, its traffic flow data, vehicle fleet composition, emission measurements and so on. Data acquisition is an expensive process that involves household surveys and automatic as well as semiautomatic measurements performed all over the network. For example, in order to accurately estimate the effect of a certain network change on the total emissions produced by vehicles in the network, assessment of the vehicle fleet composition for each origin–destination pair is required. As a result, problems that optimize nonlocal merit functions become highly difficult to solve. One such problem is finding the optimal deployment of traffic monitoring units. In this article we suggest a new traffic assignment model that is based on the concept of shortest path betweenness centrality measure, borrowed from the domain of complex network analysis. We show how betweenness can be augmented in order to solve the traffic assignment problem given an arbitrary travel cost definition. The proposed traffic assignment model is evaluated using a high-resolution Israeli transportation data set derived from the analysis of cellular phones data. The group variant of the augmented betweenness centrality is then used to optimize the locations of traffic monitoring units, hence reducing the cost and increasing the effectiveness of traffic monitoring.

Effect of Auto Restraint on Travel Behavior

Auto restraint policies are becoming increasingly popular among urban planners and policy makers as a way of managing travel demand and traffic in city centers. Because urban access is considered crucial to the economic success of a downtown area, certain constituencies, such as business and retail, have historically been opposed to such policies. To address these concerns and design appropriate policies, it is important to understand how visitors to a city center are likely to respond to new policies. This paper presents a model for estimating the likely response to two potential auto restraint policies in the center of Tel Aviv, the largest metropolitan area in Israel: an increase in parking cost and the use of congestion pricing in the form of a cordon around the city center. The models are based on the responses of center visitors to a stated preference survey. The results show that for both workers and nonworkers, most drivers who respond to the policy will do so by changing their mode of travel, and...

Overcoming barriers to adoption of environmentally-friendly innovations through design and strategy

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how a company which developed an environmentally friendly innovation attempted to address diffusion issues. Specifically, the purpose is to describe the ways in which an electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure company, in partnership with a major car manufacturer, tried to address barriers to diffusion of an environmentally friendly innovation during the development stage to improve the likelihood of success and lessons learned from its failure. Design/methodology/approach – The authors explore a single instrumental case of an Israeli company that developed infrastructure for EVs in partnership with a major automaker. The authors collected data using a series of semi-structured interviews at the companies’ headquarters, through direct observation in the company, and through the examination of archival and secondary data sources. Findings – The authors find that the company tried to incorporate design features in both the product and organization to address ke...

Gender and Travel Behavior in Two Arab Communities in Israel

This research addresses the critical but understudied issue of gender differences in travel behaviors in traditional societies, in general, and in the Arab world, in particular. To avoid known problems of data collection, a careful and labor-intensive survey process was undertaken in two Arab communities in northern Israel. The data gathered through this process were analyzed by a variety of statistical means to reveal that rather stark gender distinctions in travel behavior exist. On the whole, men make more tours, spend more time traveling, make more stops, and spend more time at activities at those stops than women. Men disproportionately travel by private vehicle modes, whereas women disproportionately walk. In the communities surveyed, the amount of transit provided was low and had a correspondingly low mode share. This dearth of transit seems to impair womens travel further. An extensive comparison of adult female and male tour frequencies was undertaken by using bivariate correlations and an ordered logit model. The most striking finding of this analysis was that 1/6th of Arab women do not leave the house to make even a single tour, whereas this proportion is 1/30th for men. The more nuanced statistical analyses revealed that demographic factors affect tour frequency differently for women and men. Effective policy interventions must consider these gender distinctions to address in the best way possible the travel needs of individuals in communities in the Arab world.

Effect of Employment Site Characteristics on Commute Mode Choice

Considerable effort has been made in recent years to resolve traffic congestion problems in metropolitan areas. The effects of employment site characteristics on commuting mode choice in the metropolitan area of Haifa, Israel, were studied. The analysis is based on trip diary data that included 4,794 commuting trips. In the first part of the investigation, the effect of different types of employment site on commuting mode choice was studied through aggregate analysis. In the second part, a four-mode multinomial model was developed. The results show a high rate of commuting by private vehicles in which the commuter is the driver. Commuters who have access to a private car are most likely to use it. High rates of commuting by bus are reported to employment sites located near the metropolitan central business district, local business employment sites, and areas with a high frequency of bus services. High rates of commuting by employer-provided transport were identified to suburban sites, industry sites, and areas with a low frequency of bus service. The research concludes that although automobile availability is the most important factor in mode choice, some employment site variables also have significant explanatory power.

Analyzing and modeling risk exposure of pedestrian children to involvement in car crashes

This paper analyzes the various variables affecting pedestrian children road crashes, placing emphasis on the effect of daily activity patterns and the built environment, including the childrens residential neighborhoods and the land use of the places where they conduct their activities. Two complementary data sources from the case study of an Arab town in northern Israel were used to provide a holistic picture of child-pedestrian road crashes: police files providing detailed analyzes of the reason for each crash, its location, and the characteristics of the driver involved; and a survey of 199 households with both involved and not involved children in road crashes, including a one-day travel diary. The study found that a combination of three groups of variables affects child-pedestrian road crashes: socio-economic status, travel patterns, and land use. Most vulnerable are boys from a low socio-economic group who live in areas of high density and mixed land use near a major road and who tend to walk to and from school and additional activities after school.

MANUAL VERSUS AUTOMATIC OPERATION OF TRAFFIC SIGNALS

This paper presents the results of a study that evaluated the contribution of manual operation (by a police officer) compared to the automatic control of an actuated signal. It is shown that manual operation improved the operation of congested signalized intersections, as measured by the degree of saturation and total throughput. It is found that the major advantage of manual control is due to the use of long cycle times, resulting in a decrease in lost time during congestion. It is argued that such a strategy can be successfully implemented as part of the automatic control. Measurements have indicated a significant decline in the saturation flow with the increase in the green period. The paper describes the phenomenon and its importance to intersection capacity.