Sigal Kaplan

Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system

Abstract Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertainty regarding the future effect of a given policy package on the transportation system and the urban environment. In this paper, we suggest and use a scenario approach to explore the future development of the Tel-Aviv Metropolitan Area (TAMA). We have constructed two scenarios for the future development of the TAMA: an expected scenario and a desired scenario. The scenarios were constructed by means of a two-round Delphi expert-based survey. Based on the opinion of the experts, our research examines the potential policy measures, which may contribute to a sustainable transportation system in Tel-Aviv. The development of both expected and desired scenarios helped to analyze the feasibility of the desired scenario and assess the likelihood of implementation of its different elements. According to the results, the key elements in the desired scenario are a highly developed public transport system, better coordination between the spatial development and the transportation system, high parking fees, congestion pricing and maintaining the functional role of the Central Business District area. The expected scenario shares many common elements with the desired scenario, which is considered a positive result.

Two-Stage Model for Jointly Revealing Determinants of Noncompensatory Conjunctive Choice Set Formation and Compensatory Choice

Understanding the distribution and the determinants of search criteria thresholds helps in representing choice set formation and choice behavior. The development and estimation are presented of a two-stage model that jointly represents search criteria thresholds, within a noncompensatory choice set formation stage, and choice behavior, within a compensatory stage. Data were collected by using a custom-designed web-based choice experiment that seamlessly tracked the entire choice process by recording choice protocols. The model is applied to off-campus rental apartment choice by students as an example of a complex choice situation. The model combines three correlated ordered response models for the search criteria with a multinomial logit model for the choice among a realistically large realm of 200 alternatives. Estimates demonstrate that (a) the thresholds are correlated and their selection can be explained by individual characteristics, preferences, and perceptions and (b) the suggested methodology alleviates the computational complexity embedded in two-stage models by reducing the number of theoretically possible choice sets to the actually chosen ones.

Scenario Building for the Future of the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area and Its Transportation System Using the Delphi Method

Tel Aviv is the largest metropolitan area in Israel and serves as the country’s main financial and cultural centre. The Tel Aviv Metropolitan Areal stretches over 1,475 square kilometres and is inhabited by 2.6 million people, of which 90 percent are living in urban areas. Data from 1999 show that the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area produced 50 percent of the GDP and was responsible for 46.4 percent of the jobs in Israel. Because of its geographical position and for historical reasons, the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area is a transportation focal point. All traffic between the north and the south of Israel, as well as traffic connecting the main cities (Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa and Beer Sheba) to each other, must pass through the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area. Thus, the metropolitan transportation infrastructure must fulfil two major functions: a) supply the demand for transportation on the national level; and b) supply the demand for transportation within the metropolitan area on the regional and local levels.