Yoshifumi Ishikawa

Economic Impacts of Population Decline Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake: An Inter-regional Input–Output Approach

The Great Earthquake of March 11, 2011, significantly damaged the Tohoku region in Japan. Particularly, Fukushima Prefecture is still suffering from the impacts of the Great Earthquake and the nuclear power plant accident and the consequent evacuation of numerous people. It is considered that the population decline due to deaths, those declared missing, and evacuation has a negative impact on the regional economy through a decline in consumer demand. Therefore, using a 47-region inter-regional input–output table at prefecture level, we analyzed the economic impacts of the population decline for the past 5 years after the Great Earthquake. Consequently, it was observed that the impact was spread across the country. In particular, while the amount of production in the Tohoku region, including Fukushima, decreased, that of the Kanto region, including Tokyo, increased because many evacuees moved from the three affected prefectures and then became consumers in their new region. In addition, it is considered that the population decline will continue in the affected area in the long term. Therefore, based on population projections that consider the impact of the earthquake, we analyzed its long-term economic impacts. Consequently, it is shown that in the worst case, production in Fukushima in 2030 will decline by 15.4% compared with 2010. Thus, there is concern that the population decline in affected regions, such as Fukushima, will continue in the long term, and the regional economy will decline.

Microsimulation and interregional input–output modelling as tools for multi-level policy analysis

This article addresses the differentiated impacts of various sectors and branches in a multi-layer spatial system. The key question is whether in an interdependent spatial system – comprising a local, regional and national component – one or more core industries or sectors can be identified that may act as strategic handles for long-range sustainable development of a local economy. As a case study, the Cairngorms National Park in Scotland is used. In this area, policy makers – at different administrative levels – strongly emphasize the need for new sustainable economic development. We use a novel combination of stakeholder analysis (with household questionnaires) and multi-level interregional input–output analysis to identify which critical local key sectors are acting as carriers for local sustainability. The methodological vehicle employed in our study is based on microsimulation, as a tool to cope with limited data availability. This paper demonstrates how, even for small areas such as the Cairngorms National Park in Scotland, survey information combined with secondary data and existing input–output tables can be integrated into a useful policy toolbox for local sustainable development in a broader regional-national context.

Assessment of Local Key Sectors in a Triple-Layer Spatial System

This article addresses the differentiated impacts of various sectors and branches in a multi-layer regional system. As a case-study the Cairngorms National Park (CNP) in Scotland is used. In this area, policy makers ”at different administrative levels” strongly emphasize the need for new sustainable economic development. We use a novel combination of stakeholder analysis with household questionnaires and interregional input-output analysis to define the most important local key-sectors as carriers for local sustainability. The methodological vehicle employed is based on microsimulation. This paper demonstrates how, even for small areas such as the CNP in Scotland, survey information combined with secondary data and existing input-output tables can be integrated into a useful policy tool.