Younkyoo Kim

Same Bed, Different Dreams: China's ‘peaceful rise’ and Sino–Russian rivalry in Central Asia

China is already outpacing Russia, which is encountering ever more difficulties in trying to arrange a continental bloc of satellite states. While it may not be possible for China to organize its own version of such a bloc given the deep-rooted regional fears and apprehensions about Chinese objectives, in the coming years it will probably be the primary foreign economic presence in Central Asia, able to cash in on the political advantages that accrue to any such power.

Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Russia: Contending Paradigms and Current Perspectives

The most outstanding trend in contemporary conflicts has been the fusion of the threats from terrorism and insurgency. Insurgent threats in many places on the globe today are mistaken as terrorist threats, and counterterrorism (CT) is deployed as the local insurgents come increasingly to resemble their transnational terrorist partners. Such an emphasis on the role of terrorism in insurgencies and the undue focus on CT risks strengthening, rather than severing, the connection between local insurgents and transnational terrorists. Russias counterterrorist strategy inadvertently transformed the conflict from a contained, nationalist rebellion to a sprawling jihadi insurgency and perversely encouraged the group to resort even more to terrorist tactics. The Russian counterinsurgency has been unsuccessful, as the insurgents are neither demolished as a force nor are they isolated by society. Losing the hearts and minds among the Chechen people is a key reason behind why the Russian operation in Chechnya suffered failures. Too little attention was paid to winning over the “hearts and minds” of the people.

The Geopolitics of Caspian Oil: Rivalries of the US, Russia, and Turkey in the South Caucasus

Abstract This study attempts to discern the overall direction of regional reorganization in Eurasia through looking at regional cooperation and the strategies and roles of powers in the South Caucasus from a sub-regional point of view. This study will attempt to look at sub-regional level cooperation of the countries in the South Caucasus region and the strategies of powers in the region, through the rivalry and difficulties between the United States, Turkey and Russia brought about through their construction of oil pipeline routes in differing directions to transport oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to the world market, as well as the national strategies of the innerregional countries that are choosing this option.

Russia and the Six-Party Process in Korea: Moscow's Quest for Great Power Status

Moscow wants a seat at the table when the future of the Korean peninsula is on the agenda, but Russias political and economic weakness undercuts its political and economic ambitions in East Asia.

Asian LNG market changes under low oil prices: prospects for trading hubs and a new price index

Abstract Presented is an analysis of the changes in the North-East Asian energy landscape as a result of the decline in global oil prices. The end of February 2016 saw the first exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. mainland when major shale gas company Cheniere Energy’s first LNG cargo left the Sabine Pass terminal in Texas. There are expectations that the beginning of U.S. LNG exports may trigger flexible trading. To the year 2020, U.S. LNG exports to North-East Asia will be increased. North-East Asia needs to continue its effort to promote regional cooperation and co-prosperity by building a North-East Asian gas trading hub. Russia will seek to keep U.S. LNG in check through price negotiations. The evolution of an Asian gas hub will be to a great extent influenced by how Russia and China will reconsider their energy strategies.

Moscow versus Brussels: Rival Integration Projects in the Balkans

Many see the western Balkans as the back yard of Europe. As the promise and reality of regional economic integration has weakened, however, Russia has returned to the area to play its historically important regional role. In the Balkans, a Russian or Russifying project competes against a European Union project, while Washington has shown little interest in the Balkans during the Barack Obama administration. The instruments of this rivalry are not only, or even primarily, armies but rather economic-political forces: control of energy pipelines and production, the use of that control for political objectives, and the attraction of competing political models.

The New Great Game of Caspian energy in 2013–14: ‘Turk Stream’, Russia and Turkey

Abstract Rerouting South Stream through Turkey, Russia is striking at Azerbaijan and at potential Central Asian gas exporters to Europe. Over the last couple of years, under Baku’s lead, Azerbaijan and Turkey have been working on bringing to fruition the so-called Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), which aims to bring Caspian-sourced gas through the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) to the Turco-Greek border and, from there, to South-eastern Europe via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and regional interconnectors. The goal of this paper is to examine Russia’s recent high-stakes game to threaten vital Azerbaijani interests, including the SGC, particularly developments since the cancellation of South Stream—or ‘Turk Stream’. ‘Turk Stream’ is likely to propel the Balkans and Ukraine into front-line states in a serious struggle between the European Union and Russia. Yet, the obstacles to ‘Turk Stream’ are considerable. It is by no means certain that Russia and Turkey can pursue antagonistic policies geopolitically and simultaneously maximize the benefits of their deepened energy relation and increased economic cooperation. And in its eagerness to become a gas hub, Turkey has severely limited the possibilities for Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Central Asian gas producers to break free of Moscow’s energy grip.

Russia and Latin America The New Frontier for Geopolitics, Arms Sales and Energy

Russia attempts to leverage itself onto the global stage and be portrayed as a global power that must be consulted on major global issues. It does so in order to claim a status of equality with the United States and force it to consider Russian interests before the United States acts in those regions where Russia claims to have vital or important interests, even though its ability to play on a truly global stage is quite limited. Nevertheless, for the reasons advanced above, in Latin America Moscow endeavors to cut a global figure, even if its commercial presence there pales relative to the U.S. or Chinese presence. Although world attention now focuses on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is once again simultaneously expanding its presence in Latin America. Since this process has received little scrutiny, this paper attempts to provide an assessment of Moscow’s goals, strategies, tactics, and policy instruments.

Nascent Gas Markets in the Era of Low Oil Prices: The Challenges and Opportunities of Energy Security in Southeast Asia

At end of February 2016, the first exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US mainland were shipped when major shale gas company Cheniere Energy’s LNG cargo left the Sabine Pass terminal in Texas. The potential large-scale entry of US LNG exports into Asian markets may trigger flexible trading. Northeast Asia needs to continue its effort to promote regional cooperation and coprosperity by building a Northeast Asian gas trading hub. Russia will seek to keep US LNG in check through price negotiations. The evolution of an Asian gas hub will be to a great extent influenced by how Russia and China will reconsider their energy strategies.

Obstacles to the creation of gas trading hubs and a price index in Northeast Asia

Abstract On the face of it, Asian gas hub pricing dynamics in 2014–2017 look similar to that of Europe in 2009–2012. The central argument of this article is that the path to an Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) hub seems to be quite different than in Europe. Unique challenges to a posited gas hub pricing have not been fully illuminated. One of the hypotheses of this article is that Asia is by no means Europe, and Asia will have its own unique path to a gas hub pricing. Complexity and uncertainty around the global and Asian supply and demand balance increases significantly until the mid-2020s. A market consensus view has developed that the global LNG market will remain oversupplied for the rest of this decade and well into the 2020s. While this consensus is currently being supported by a range of buyers and producers, it is increasingly coming under challenge. For Asia, it makes more sense to anticipate a virtual LNG hub and not natural gas trading hub.