Yuko Kinoshita

Why Does FDI Go Where it Goes? New Evidence from the Transition Economies

This Paper examines the importance of agglomeration economies and institutions vis-a-vis initial conditions and factor endowments in explaining the locational choice of foreign investors. Using a unique panel data set for 25 transition economies between 1990-98, we find that the main determinants are institutions, agglomeration and trade openness. We find important differences between the Eastern European and Baltic countries, on the one hand, and the former Soviet Union countries on the other: in the latter group, natural resources and infrastructure matter, while agglomeration matters only for the former group.

R&D and Technology Spillovers Via FDI: Innovation and Absorptive Capacity

Two faces of R&D (innovation and learning) and technology spillovers from FDI (foreign direct investment) on a firms productivity growth are examined in this paper. Using firm-level panel data on Czech manufacturing firms between 1995 and 1998, I find that: (i) the learning effect of R&D is far more important than the innovative effect in explaining the productivity growth of a firm, (ii) there is no evidence of technology spillovers to local firms from having a foreign joint venture partner, (iii) positive spillovers from FDI are found in electrical machinery and radio & TV sectors, which are also active investors in innovative R&D.

Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms: Evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America

This paper investigates the role of structural reforms - privatization, financial reform and trade liberalization- as determinants of FDI inflows based on newly constructed dataset on structural reforms for 19 Latin American and 25 Eastern European countries between 1989 and 2004. Our main finding is a strong empirical relationship from reforms to FDI, in particular, from financial liberalization and privatization. These results are robust to different measures of reforms, split samples, and potential endogeneity and omitted variables biases.

Private information for foreign investment in emerging economies

In previous studies it has been found that new foreign investment is significantly related to the stock of existing investment in the country/region. This papers contribution is the finding that a Japanese firms new investment in an emerging economy is positively correlated with its previous investment in that economy and also with the current/planned investments by competitors. These two channels are primarily substitutes; that is, investment by competitors becomes less salient when the firm has experience in the market. The correlated behaviour is not explained by industrial agglomerations but appears to reflect the value of private information to investment in emerging economies.

The usefulness of private and public information for foreign investment decisions

Using a specially designed survey of Japanese firms planning investments in Asia, the authors emphasize the importance of privately held information in making foreign investment decisions. Information on operating conditions based on direct experience in a country is likely to be the most credible information, but for investors new to a country, information inferred from observing others investing in that country may be more influential. Initially, in fact, observing the actions of competitors seems to lead to cascading investments in that country, apparently through herd behavior (as in China and Vietnam). Countries which do not draw a critical mass of investors are in danger of being bypassed for significant periods. Publicly available information is important in helping shape average perceptions about a country,leading potential investors to view particular locations favorably. Privately held information complements that pubic information, and accounts for important variations in investment plans. Subjective perceptions about policy on foreign direct investments are also important. Policy designed to attract investors -for example, special zones for foreign investors- have been successful in many instances, especially in East Asia, but have also been a waste of scarce investment resources when not appropriately planned. And such policy is of little value in attracting those already investing in a country, or those who already perceive rivals to be active there.

On the Role of Absorptive Capacity: FDI Matters to Growth

The paper studies the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth when sufficient provisions of infrastructure is a pre-requisite. In the overlapping generations structure setting, we show that technology spillovers via FDI take place only when the host country has the sufficient level of infrastructure. Infrastructure has a subsequent positive feedback on further investment which leads the country grow faster. If infrastructure falls short of the critical level, however, then FDI has little effect on growth as the country is trapped in a low-growth equilibrium. We also present the simulations and empirical results based on panel data for 42 developing countries between 1970 and 2000. They provide support to the model that FDI and infrastructure are complements in affecting per capita GDP growth.

Private and Public Information for Foreign Investment Decisions

Previous studies have found that foreign direct investment is significantly related to the stock of existing investment in the area. The present paper makes an additional contribution by providing evidence that investment decisions are positively correlated to the firm’s own previous investment in the area as well as to the current/planned investments by competitors. In addition, it is found that these two channels are primarily substitutes, i.e., investment by competitors comes less important when the firm already has experience in the market. The results are statistically significant and robust to various changes in model specification.

What Can Boost Female Labor Force Participation in Asia

Both Japan and Korea are trying to boost female labor force participation (FLFP) as they face the challenges of a rapidly aging population. Though FLFP has generally been on a rising trend, the female labor force in both countries is skewed towards non-regular employment despite women’s high education levels. This paper empirically examines what helps Japan and Korea to increase FLFP by type (i.e., regular vs. non-regular employment), using the SVAR model. In so doing, we compare these two Asian countries with two Nordic countries Norway and Finland. The main findings are: (i) child cash allowances tend to reduce the proportion of regular female employment in Japan and Korea, (ii) the persistent gender wage gap encourages more non-regular employment, (iii) a greater proportion of regular female employment is associated with higher fertility, and (iv) there is a need for more public spending on childcare for age 6-11 in Japan and Korea to help women continue to work.

Sectoral Composition of Foreign Direct Investment and External Vulnerability in Eastern Europe

In the run up to the global crisis, countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe attracted large capital inflows and some of them built up large external imbalances. This paper investigates whether these imbalances are linked to the sectoral composition of FDI. It shows that FDI in the tradable sectors leads to an improvement of the external balance. We also find that the countries with large market size, good infrastructure, greater trade integration, and educated labor force are more likely to receive more FDI in the tradable sectors.

Firm Size and Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper studies the locational determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) by Japanese manufacturing firms in seven Asian countries by utilizing the 1993 survey data. I show that different size- groups of firms react to different factors in the host country in making the foreign investment decisions. Low labor cost and sufficient infrastructure encourage small firms to invest in a certain country while, for large firms, market size of the host country and strategic considerations (e.g. whether competitors invested in the country or not) are most important for their locational decisions. Overall, availability of cheap labor is not necessarily an important factor for Japanese FDI in Asia.