Yusuke Kawada

Radon Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes (II)

Before the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, various geochemical precursors were observed in the aftershock area: chloride ion concentration, groundwater discharge rate, groundwater radon concentration and so on. Kobe Pharmaceutical University (KPU) is located about 25km northeast from the epicenter and within the aftershock area. Atmospheric radon concentration had been continuously measured from 1984 at KPU, using a flow-type ionization chamber. The radon concentration data were analyzed using the smoothed residual values which represent the daily minimum of radon concentration with the exclusion of normalized seasonal variation. The radon concentration (smoothed residual values) demonstrated an upward trend about two months before the Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake. The trend can be well fitted to a log-periodic model related to earthquake fault dynamics. As a result of model fitting, a critical point was calculated to be between 13 and 27 January 1995, which was in good agreement with the occurrence date of earthquake (17 January 1995). The mechanism of radon anomaly before earthquakes is not fully understood. However, it might be possible to detect atmospheric radon anomaly as a precursor before a large earthquake, if (1) the measurement is conducted near the earthquake fault, (2) the monitoring station is located on granite (radon-rich) areas, and (3) the measurement is conducted for more than several years before the earthquake to obtain background data.

Fractional-order derivative and time-dependent viscoelastic behaviour of rocks and minerals

A general constitutive equation for viscoelastic behaviour of rocks and minerals with fractional-order derivative is investigated. This constitutive law is derived based on differential geometry and thermodynamics of rheology, and the fractional order of derivative represents the degree of time delay. Analyzing some laboratory experimental data of high temperature deformation of rocks and minerals such as halite, marble and orthopyroxene, we propose how to determine the orders of fractional derivative for viscoelastic behaviours of rocks and minerals. The order is related to the exponents for the temporal scaling in the relaxation modulus and the stress power-law of strain rate, i.e., the non-Newtonian flow law, and considered as an indicator representing the macroscopic behaviour and microscopic dynamics of rocks.

Radon Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes (I)-Review of Previous Studies-

The relationship between radon anomalies and earthquakes has been studied for more than 30 years. However, most of the studies dealt with radon in soil gas or in groundwater. Before the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, an anomalous increase of atmospheric radon was observed at Kobe Pharmaceutical University. The increase was well fitted with a mathematical model related to earthquake fault dynamics. This paper reports the significance of this observation, reviewing previous studies on radon anomaly before earthquakes. Groundwater/soil radon measurements for earthquake prediction began in 1970s in Japan as well as foreign countries. One of the most famous studies in Japan is groundwater radon anomaly before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake. We have recognized the significance of radon in earthquake prediction research, but recently its limitation was also pointed out. Some researchers are looking for a better indicator for precursors; simultaneous measurements of radon and other gases are new trials in recent studies. Contrary to soil/groundwater radon, we have not paid much attention to atmospheric radon before earthquakes. However, it might be possible to detect precursors in atmospheric radon before a large earthquake. In the next issue, we will discuss the details of the anomalous atmospheric radon data observed before the Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake.