Yumi Yasuoka

Anomaly in atmospheric radon concentration: a possible precursor of the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake.

Clear seismic-related anomalies in the radon (222Rn) concentration of the atmosphere were observed prior to the Kobe earthquake (magnitude 7.2) on 17 January 1995. The radon anomalies were observed at a monitoring station in Kobe, which is located about 20 km away from the epicenter. The means of radon concentration in the atmosphere for each day were calculated using the data observed between April 1984 and March 1994, in order to obtain the normal radon variation. The difference between the smoothed radon concentration and the smoothed mean radon concentration is the residual value. Using the weekly averages of residual values in the historical period, the weekly residual value in the validation period were predicted. The historical period was from April 1984 to March 1994. The validation period was from April 1994 to January 1996. The seismic-related radon anomaly higher than the 99% confidence limit of the residual value of radon concentration in the atmosphere was observed beginning about 2 mo before the earthquake.

Normal seasonal variations for atmospheric radon concentration: a sinusoidal model

Anomalous radon readings in air have been reported before an earthquake activity. However, careful measurements of atmospheric radon concentrations during a normal period are required to identify anomalous variations in a precursor period. In this study, we obtained radon concentration data for 5 years (2003-2007) that can be considered a normal period and compared it with data from the precursory period of 2008 until March 2011, when the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake occurred. Then, we established a model for seasonal variation by fitting a sinusoidal model to the radon concentration data during the normal period, considering that the seasonal variation was affected by atmospheric turbulence. By determining the amplitude in the sinusoidal model, the normal variation of the radon concentration can be estimated. Thus, the results of this method can be applied to identify anomalous radon variations before an earthquake.

Annual variation in the atmospheric radon concentration in Japan.

Anomalous atmospheric variations in radon related to earthquakes have been observed in hourly exhaust-monitoring data from radioisotope institutes in Japan. The extraction of seismic anomalous radon variations would be greatly aided by understanding the normal pattern of variation in radon concentrations. Using atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data from five sampling sites, we show that a sinusoidal regression curve can be fitted to the data. In addition, we identify areas where the atmospheric radon variation is significantly affected by the variation in atmospheric turbulence and the onshore-offshore pattern of Asian monsoons. Furthermore, by comparing the sinusoidal regression curve for the normal annual (seasonal) variations at the five sites to the sinusoidal regression curve for a previously published dataset of radon values at the five Japanese prefectures, we can estimate the normal annual variation pattern. By fitting sinusoidal regression curves to the previously published dataset containing sites in all Japanese prefectures, we find that 72% of the Japanese prefectures satisfy the requirements of the sinusoidal regression curve pattern. Using the normal annual variation pattern of atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data, these prefectures are suitable areas for obtaining anomalous radon variations related to earthquakes.

Radon concentration of outdoor air: measured by an ionization chamber for radioisotope monitoring system at radioisotope institute

Gas-flow ionization chambers for radioisotope (RI) monitoring systems at RI institutes throughout Japan are commonly used to measure RIs which leak from the RI institutes. Before the Japan’s 2011 Tohoku earthquake [11 March 2011, moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0], ionization current data measured with a gas-flow ionization chamber at the RI institute of Fukushima Medical University were found to change. The question we must raise is whether the variation ionization current can be considered to the variation of outdoor radon concentration. The conversion factors (from ionization current to radon concentration in air) of the gas-flow ionization chamber can be obtained by measuring four levels of radon concentration (outdoor air, indoor air, high level and radon-free gas) with an AlphaGUARD monitor and the chamber itself. The two gas-flow ionization chambers consist of the air intake and terminal exhaust duct of the RI institute. It was found that the radon concentration in the exhaust air was the same as that in the air intake. This study provided evidence that variations of outdoor radon concentration could be determined using gas-flow ionization chambers for RI monitoring systems.

Radon Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes (II)

Before the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, various geochemical precursors were observed in the aftershock area: chloride ion concentration, groundwater discharge rate, groundwater radon concentration and so on. Kobe Pharmaceutical University (KPU) is located about 25km northeast from the epicenter and within the aftershock area. Atmospheric radon concentration had been continuously measured from 1984 at KPU, using a flow-type ionization chamber. The radon concentration data were analyzed using the smoothed residual values which represent the daily minimum of radon concentration with the exclusion of normalized seasonal variation. The radon concentration (smoothed residual values) demonstrated an upward trend about two months before the Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake. The trend can be well fitted to a log-periodic model related to earthquake fault dynamics. As a result of model fitting, a critical point was calculated to be between 13 and 27 January 1995, which was in good agreement with the occurrence date of earthquake (17 January 1995). The mechanism of radon anomaly before earthquakes is not fully understood. However, it might be possible to detect atmospheric radon anomaly as a precursor before a large earthquake, if (1) the measurement is conducted near the earthquake fault, (2) the monitoring station is located on granite (radon-rich) areas, and (3) the measurement is conducted for more than several years before the earthquake to obtain background data.

Separately measuring radon and thoron concentrations exhaled from soil using alphaguard and liquid scintillation counter methods

It was shown that radon and thoron concentrations exhaled from soil were separately measured using the AlphaGUARD and liquid scintillation counter (LSC) methods. The thoron concentrations from the RAD 7 were used to create the conversion equation to calculate thoron levels with the AlphaGUARD. However, the conversion factor was found to depend on the air flow rate. When air containing thoron of ∼60 kBq m(-3) was fed to the scintillation cocktail, thoron and thoron progeny could not be measured with the LSC method. The radon concentration of about 10 kBq m(-3) was measured with three methods, first with the LSC method and then with two AlphaGUARDs (one in the diffusion mode and the other in the flow mode (0.5 l min(-1))). There were no significant differences between these results. Finally, it was shown that the radon and thoron concentrations in air could be measured with the AlphaGUARD and LSC methods.

Influence of soil environmental parameters on thoron exhalation rate

Field measurements of thoron exhalation rates have been carried out using a ZnS(Ag) scintillation detector with an accumulation chamber. The influence of soil surface temperature and moisture saturation on the thoron exhalation rate was observed. When the variation of moisture saturation was small, the soil surface temperature appeared to induce a strong effect on the thoron exhalation rate. On the other hand, when the variation of moisture saturation was large, the influence of moisture saturation appeared to be larger than the soil surface temperature. The number of data ranged over 405, and the median was estimated to be 0.79 Bq m(-2) s(-1). Dependence of geology on the thoron exhalation rate from the soil surface was obviously found, and a nationwide distribution map of the thoron exhalation rate from the soil surface was drawn by using these data. It was generally high in the southwest region than in the northeast region.

Accurate Measurement of Indoor Radon Concentration using a Low-Effective Volume Radon Monitor

Abstract AlphaGUARD is a low-effective volume detector and one of the most popular portable radon monitors which is currently available. This study investigated whether AlphaGUARD can accurately measure the variable indoor radon levels. The consistency of the radon-concentration data obtained by AlphaGUARD is evaluated against simultaneous measurements by two other monitors (each ~10 times more sensitive than AlphaGUARD). When accurately measuring radon concentration with AlphaGUARD, we found that the net counts of the AlphaGUARD were required of at least 500 counts, <25% of the relative percent difference. AlphaGUARD can provide accurate measurements of radon concentration for the world average level (~50 Bq m−3) and the reference level of workplace (1000 Bq m−3), using integrated data over at least 3 h and 10 min, respectively.

ANOMALOUS CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC RADON CONCENTRATION BEFORE AND AFTER THE 2011 NORTHERN WAKAYAMA EARTHQUAKE (MJ 5.5)

Abstract A significant increase in atmospheric radon concentration was observed in the area around the epicentre before and after the occurrence of the shallow inland earthquake in the northern Wakayama Prefecture on 5 July 2011 (Mj 5.5, depth 7 km) in Japan. The seismic activity in the sampling site was evaluated to identify that this earthquake was the largest near the sampling site during the observation period. To determine whether this was an anomalous change, the atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration measured for a 13-year period was analysed. When the residual radon concentration values without the seasonal radon variation and the linear trend was > 3 standard deviations of the residual radon variation corresponding to the normal period, the values were deemed as anomalous. As a result, an anomalous increase in radon concentration was determined before and after the earthquake. In conclusion, anomalous change related to earthquakes with at least Mj 5.5 can be detected by monitoring atmospheric radon near the epicentre.

Radon Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes (I)-Review of Previous Studies-

The relationship between radon anomalies and earthquakes has been studied for more than 30 years. However, most of the studies dealt with radon in soil gas or in groundwater. Before the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, an anomalous increase of atmospheric radon was observed at Kobe Pharmaceutical University. The increase was well fitted with a mathematical model related to earthquake fault dynamics. This paper reports the significance of this observation, reviewing previous studies on radon anomaly before earthquakes. Groundwater/soil radon measurements for earthquake prediction began in 1970s in Japan as well as foreign countries. One of the most famous studies in Japan is groundwater radon anomaly before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake. We have recognized the significance of radon in earthquake prediction research, but recently its limitation was also pointed out. Some researchers are looking for a better indicator for precursors; simultaneous measurements of radon and other gases are new trials in recent studies. Contrary to soil/groundwater radon, we have not paid much attention to atmospheric radon before earthquakes. However, it might be possible to detect precursors in atmospheric radon before a large earthquake. In the next issue, we will discuss the details of the anomalous atmospheric radon data observed before the Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake.