Yves Tramblay

Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France

Abstract Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.

Frequency analysis of maximum annual suspended sediment concentrations in North America / Analyse fréquentielle des maximums annuels de concentration en sédiments en suspension en Amérique du Nord

Abstract Suspended sediments are a natural component of aquatic ecosystems, but when present in high concentrations they can become a threat to aquatic life and can carry large amounts of pollutants. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is therefore an important abiotic variable used to quantify water quality and habitat availability for some species of fish and invertebrates. This study is an attempt to quantify and predict annual extreme events of SSC using frequency analysis methods. Time series of daily suspended sediment concentrations in 208 rivers in North America were analysed to provide a large-scale frequency analysis study of annual maximum concentrations. Seasonality and the correlation of discharges and annual peak of suspended sediment concentration were also analysed. Peak concentrations usually occur in spring and summer. A significant correlation between extreme SSC and associated discharge was detected only in half of the stations. Probability distributions were fitted to station data recorded at the stations to estimate the return period for a specific concentration, or the concentration for a given return period. Selection criteria such as the Akaike and Bayesian information criterion were used to select the best statistical distribution in each case. For each selected distribution, the most appropriate parameter estimation method was used. The most commonly used distributions were exponential, lognormal, Weibull and Gamma. These four distributions were used for 90% of stations.

Remote Sensing of Water Resources in Semi-Arid Mediterranean Areas: the joint international laboratory TREMA

Monitoring of water resources and a better understanding of the eco-hydrological processes governing their dynamics are necessary to anticipate and develop measures to adapt to climate and water-use changes. Focusing on this aim, a research project carried out within the framework of French–Moroccan cooperation demonstrated how remote sensing can help improve the monitoring and modelling of water resources in semi-arid Mediterranean regions. The study area is the Tensift Basin located near Marrakech (Morocco) – a typical Southern Mediterranean catchment with water production in the mountains and downstream consumption mainly driven by agriculture. Following a description of the institutional context and the experimental network, the main recent research results are presented: (1) methodological development for the retrieval of key components of the water cycle in a snow-covered area from remote-sensing imagery (disaggregated soil moisture from soil moisture and ocean salinity) at the kilometre scale, based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); (2) the use of remote-sensing products together with land-surface modelling for the monitoring of evapotranspiration; and (3) phenomenological modelling based only on time series of remote-sensing data with application to forecasting of cereal yields. Finally, the issue of transfer of research results is also addressed through two remote sensing-based tools developed together with the project partners involved in water management and irrigation planning.

Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitations extremes in Morocco

The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of Morocco’s climate extreme trends during the last four decades. Indices were computed based on a daily temperature and precipitation using a consistent approach recommended by the ETCCDI. Trends in these indices were calculated at 20 stations from 1970 to 2012. Twelve indices were considered to detect trends in temperature. A large number of stations have significant trends and confirm an increase in temperature, showing increased warming during spring and summer seasons. The results also show a decrease in the number of cold days and nights and an increase in the number of warm days and nights. Increasing trends have also been found in the absolute warmest and coldest temperatures of the year. A clear increase is detected for warm nights and diurnal temperature range. Eight indices for precipitation were also analyzed, but the trends for these precipitation indices are much less significant than for temperature indices and show more mixed spatial patterns of change. Heavy precipitation events do not exhibit significant trends except at a few locations, in the north and central parts of Morocco, with a general tendency towards drier conditions. The correlation between these climate indices and the large-scale atmospheric circulations indices such as the NAO, MO, and WEMO were also analyzed. Results show a stronger relationship with these climatic indices for the precipitation indices compared to the temperature indices. The correlations are more significant in the Atlantic regions, but they remain moderate at the whole country scale.

Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in California Rivers.

The total amount of suspended sediment load carried by a stream during a year is usually transported during one or several extreme events related to high river flow and intense rainfall, leading to very high suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). In this study quantiles of SSC derived from annual maximums and the 99th percentile of SSC series are considered to be estimated locally in a site-specific approach using regional information. Analyses of relationships between physiographic characteristics and the selected indicators were undertaken using the localities of 5-km radius draining of each sampling site. Multiple regression models were built to test the regional estimation for these indicators of suspended sediment transport. To assess the accuracy of the estimates, a Jack-Knife re-sampling procedure was used to compute the relative bias and root mean square error of the models. Results show that for the 19 stations considered in California, the extreme SSCs can be estimated with 40-60% uncertainty, depending on the presence of flow regulation in the basin. This modelling approach is likely to prove functional in other Mediterranean climate watersheds since they appear useful in California, where geologic, climatic, physiographic, and land-use conditions are highly variable.

Dynamique et modélisation des crues dans le bassin du Mono à Nangbéto (Togo/Bénin)

Résumé Les inondations des dernières années en Afrique de l’Ouest rendent nécessaire la prévision hydrologique pour réduire la vulnérabilité des populations. Nous avons étudié la dynamique des crues dans le bassin du Mono en amont du barrage de Nangbéto (Togo et Bénin) par des méthodes statistiques et déterministes. L’augmentation des précipitations au cours de la décennie 1990 et la mise en eau du barrage de Nangbéto en 1988 ont modifié le régime du Mono, dont les débits d’étiages ont augmenté. Les débits entrants et sortants du barrage sont équivalents, même lors des crues. Les maximums annuels des débits entrants peuvent être modélisés par une distribution des valeurs extrêmes (GEV) de type Fréchet, tandis que ceux des débits sortants, suivent une loi GEV de type Weibull (bornée). Le mécanisme dominant de génération des crues dans le bassin est la montée progressive des eaux associée à l’augmentation de la saturation des sols. L’analyse des débits de crue entre 1988 et 2010 n’a pas montré d’augmentation de la magnitude ou de la fréquence des crues. Le modèle GR4J reproduit bien les débits de crues en période calage, mais ces critères de performance se dégradent lorsque l’on s’en éloigne. Dans ces conditions, l’utilisation de ce modèle pour évaluer les risques futurs de crues serait hasardeuse et il est nécessaire d’envisager d’autres types d’approches.

Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas, Morocco)

ABSTRACT This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km2) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989‒2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049‒2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (−22% to −31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (−19% to −63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment. EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch

Atmospheric Predictors for Annual Maximum Precipitation in North Africa

AbstractThe high precipitation variability over North Africa presents a major challenge for the population and the infrastructure in the region. The last decades have seen many flood events caused by extreme precipitation in this area. There is a strong need to identify the most relevant atmospheric predictors to model these extreme events. In the present work, the effect of 14 different predictors calculated from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, with daily to seasonal time steps, on the maximum annual precipitation (MAP) is evaluated at six coastal stations located in North Africa (Larache, Tangier, Melilla, Algiers, Tunis, and Gabes). The generalized extreme value (GEV) B-spline model was used to detect this influence. This model considers all continuous dependence forms (linear, quadratic, etc.) between the covariates and the variable of interest, thus providing a very flexible framework to evaluate the covariate effects on the GEV model parameters. Results show that no single set of covariates is valid for all s...

Evaluation of satellite-based rainfall products for hydrological modelling in Morocco

ABSTRACT Several satellite-based precipitation estimates are becoming available at a global scale, providing new possibilities for water resources modelling, particularly in data-sparse regions and developing countries. This work provides a first validation of five different satellite-based precipitation products (TRMM-3B42 v6 and v7, RFE 2.0, PERSIANN-CDR, CMORPH1.0 version 0.x) in the 1785 km2 Makhazine catchment (Morocco). Precipitation products are first compared against ground observations. Ten raingauges and four different interpolation methods (inverse distance, nearest neighbour, ordinary kriging and residual kriging with altitude) were used to compute a set of interpolated precipitation reference fields. Second, a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model is considered, with a simulation approach based on the random generation of model parameters drawn from existing parameter set libraries, to compare the different precipitation inputs. The results indicate that (1) all four interpolation methods, except the nearest neighbour approach, give similar and valid precipitation estimates at the catchment scale; (2) among the different satellite-based precipitation estimates verified, the TRMM-3B42 v7 product is the closest to observed precipitation, and (3) despite poor performance at the daily time step when used in the hydrological model, TRMM-3B42 v7 estimates are found adequate to reproduce monthly dynamics of discharge in the catchment. The results provide valuable perspectives for water resources modelling of data-scarce catchments with satellite-based rainfall data in this region. Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor N. Verhoest

Regional flood frequency analysis in the High Atlas mountainous catchments of Morocco

In semi-arid catchments, the contribution of floods to annual runoff is important. The High Atlas Mountain catchments (N’Fis, Rheraya, Ourika, Zat and R’dat) located in the south of Morocco, upstream of the city of Marrakech, are an example of those basins where floods provide the main contribution to surface water resources. The goal of this study is to evaluate whether a regional flood frequency analysis could improve the estimation of the magnitude and the occurrence of floods in these mountainous catchments. The database considered is long-term measurement of daily discharge at the outlets with record length varying from 35 to 45xa0years. The index flood method is considered to build a regional model based on the generalized extreme values distribution. The results showed a contrasted seasonal behavior, with floods caused by either rainfall during the autumn season or a mix of rainfall and snowmelt for spring events. As a consequence, two distinct regional models have been computed, one for autumn and one for spring events. No significant trends have been found for seasonal maximum discharge in all the catchments. The results of the regional frequency analysis show that the regional model provides better flood quantiles estimates than a standard at-site model. However, there is a much greater uncertainty for both local and regional estimates of floods occurring during the autumn than during spring events, which are estimated with a good level of accuracy. This research provides insights into how to improve the estimation of flood return levels useful for water resources management in these semi-arid mountainous catchments.