Zhaosheng Fan

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change.

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO2 and CH4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005-2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.

Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quan ...

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4°C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.

Modeling the Production, Decomposition, and Transport of Dissolved Organic Carbon in Boreal Soils

The movement of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) through boreal ecosystems has drawn increased attention because of its potential impact on the feedback of OC stocks to global environmental change in this region. Few models of boreal DOC exist. Here we present a one-dimensional model with simultaneous production, decomposition, sorption/desorption, and transport of DOC to describe the behavior of DOC in the OC layers above the mineral soils. The field-observed concentration profiles of DOC in two moderately well-drained black spruce forest sites (one with permafrost and one without permafrost), coupled with hourly measured soil temperature and moisture, were used to inversely estimate the unknown parameters associated with the sorption/desorption kinetics using a global optimization strategy. The model, along with the estimated parameters, reasonably reproduces the concentration profiles of DOC and highlights some important potential controls over DOC production and cycling in boreal settings. The values of estimated parameters suggest that humic OC has a larger potential production capacity for DOC than fine OC, and most of the DOC produced from fine OC was associated with instantaneous sorption/desorption whereas most of the DOC produced from humic OC was associated with time-dependent sorption/desorption. The simulated DOC efflux at the bottom of soil OC layers was highly dependent on the component and structure of the OC layers. The DOC efflux was controlled by advection at the site with no humic OC and moist conditions and controlled by diffusion at the site with the presence of humic OC and dry conditions.

Transport of oxygen in soil pore-water systems: implications for modeling emissions of carbon dioxide and methane from peatlands

Peatlands store vast amounts of soil carbon and are significant sources of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions. The traditional approach in biogeochemical model simulations of peatland emissions is to simply divide the soil domain into an aerobic zone above and an anaerobic zone below the water table (WT) and then calculate CO2 and CH4 emissions based on the assumed properties of these two discrete zones. However, there are major potential drawbacks associated with the traditional WT-based approach, because aerobic or anaerobic environments are ultimately determined by oxygen (O2) concentration rather than water content directly. Variations in O2 content above and below the WT can be large and thus may play an important role in partitioning of carbon fluxes between CO2 and CH4. In this paper, we propose an oxygen-based approach, which simulates the vertical and radial components of O2 movement and consumption through the soil aerobic and anaerobic environments. We then use both our oxygen-based and the traditional WT-based approaches to simulate CO2 and CH4 emissions from an Alaskan fen peatland. The results of model calibration and validation suggest that our physically realistic approach (i.e., oxygen-based approach) cause less biases on the simulated flux of CO2 and CH4. The results of model simulations also suggest that the traditional WT-based approach might substantially under-estimate CH4 emissions and over-estimate CO2 emissions from the fen due to the presence of anaerobic zones in unsaturated soil. Our oxygen-based approach can be easily incorporated into existing ecosystem or earth system models but will require additional validation with more extensive field observations to be implemented within biogeochemical models to improve simulations of soil C fluxes at regional or global scale.

Observational needs for estimating Alaskan soil carbon stocks under current and future climate

Representing land surface spatial heterogeneity when designing observation networks is a critical scientific challenge. Here, we present a geospatial approach that utilizes the multivariate spatial heterogeneity of soil-forming factors — namely climate, topography, land cover types, and surficial geology — to identify observation sites to improve soil organic carbon (SOC) stock estimates across the State of Alaska, USA. Standard deviations in existing SOC samples indicated that 657, 870, and 906 randomly distributed pedons would be required to quantify the average SOC stocks for 0-1 m, 0-2 m, and whole-profile depths, respectively, at a confidence interval of 5 kg m-2. Using the spatial correlation range of existing SOC samples, we identified that 309, 446, and 484 new observation sites are needed to estimate current SOC stocks to 1-m, 2-m, and whole-profile depths, respectively. We also investigated whether the identified sites might change under future climate by using eight decadal (2020–2099) projections of precipitation, temperature, and length of growing season for three representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These analyses determined that 12 to 41 additional sites (906 + 12 to 41; depending upon the emission scenarios) would be needed to capture the impact of future climate on Alaskan whole-profile SOC stocks by 2100. The identified observation sites represent spatially distributed locations across Alaska that captures the multivariate heterogeneity of soil-forming factors under current and future climatic conditions. This information is needed for designing monitoring networks and benchmarking of Earth System Model results.

Model-based analysis of environmental controls over ecosystem primary production in an alpine tundra dry meadow

We investigated several key limiting factors that control alpine tundra productivity by developing an ecosystem biogeochemistry model. The model simulates the coupled cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) and their interactions with gross primary production (GPP). It was parameterized with field observations from an alpine dry meadow ecosystem using a global optimization strategy to estimate the unknown parameters. The model, along with the estimated parameters, was first validated against independent data and then used to examine the environmental controls over plant productivity. Our results show that air temperature is the strongest limiting factor to GPP in the early growing season, N availability becomes important during the middle portion of the growing season, and soil moisture is the strongest limiting factors by late in the growing season. Overall, the controls over GPP during the growing season, from strongest to weakest, are soil moisture content, air temperature, N availability, and P availability. This simulation provides testable predictions of the shifting nature of physical and nutrient limitations on plant growth. The model also indicates that changing environmental conditions in the alpine will likely lead to changes in productivity. For example, warming eliminates the control of P availability on GPP and makes N availability surpass air temperature to become the second strongest limiting factor. In contrast, an increase in atmospheric nutrient deposition eliminates the control of N availability and enhances the importance of P availability. These analyses provide a quantitative and conceptual framework that can be used to test predictions and refine ecological analyses at this long-term ecological research site.