Zhicong Yang

Predicting unprecedented dengue outbreak using imported cases and climatic factors in Guangzhou, 2014.

Introduction Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response. Methodology and Principal Findings In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimum temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend. Conclusions Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system.

Dengue is still an imported disease in China: A case study in Guangzhou

Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV 1-4) infect approximately 390 million people worldwide each year, with most cases in tropical and subtropical regions. Because of repeated introduction of DENV from epidemic regions and suitable weather conditions, many regions have shifted from hypo-endemicity to hyper-endemicity over recent decades. Since the first dengue outbreak in 1978, it is crucial to understand the current situation in China over nearly 40 years. The purpose of the study was to examine whether dengue in China was endemic or not, which is essential for relevant dengue control and prevention strategy implementation in China. The study, combining epidemiological characteristics of dengue from the disease notification system, phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses, showed that all four serotypes had been detected in Guangzhou, China, which was dominated by DENV 1-2. The Maximum Likelihood tree analytic results showed that the virus detected in Guangzhou localized in different clades, except of virus of 2002 and 2003 clustered together. There existed the mutual introductions between Guangzhou and Southeast Asia. Most of the viruses were imported from Southeast Asia and the sources of outbreaks in Guangzhou mainly originated from Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The study indicates that dengue in China still remains as an imported disease, with the possibility of localization.

Epidemiological, Virological, and Entomological Characteristics of Dengue from 1978 to 2009 in Guangzhou, China

ABSTRACT: To understand its unprecedented resurgence, we examined the epidemiological, virological, and entomological features of dengue in Guangzhou during 1978–2009. Cases reported to the Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and data from virological and entomological surveillance were analyzed from three periods: 1978–1988, 1989–1999, and 2000–2009. Although cases decreased over time: 6,649 (1978–1988) to 6,479 (1989–1999) to 2,526 (2000–2009), geographical expansion resulted in districts with an average incidence >2.5/100,000, increasing from five (1978–1988, 1989–1999) to seven (2000–2009). Age distribution (mean age: 34.9 years) provided a trend of increasing dengue incidence among adults, and there was a significantly higher incidence among men with a sex ratio of 1.15:1 (P<0.001). Cases occurred from May through November with a peak between August and October, and a long-term trend was characterized by a three to five-year cyclical pattern. The most frequently isolated serotypes were DENV-2 (1978–1988) and DENV-1 (1989–1999 and 2000–2009). Seasonal fluctuations in immature densities of Aedes albopictus (sole transmission vector in Guangzhou) were consistent with the dengue seasonality. After a 30-year apparent absence, DENV-3 had reemerged in 2009. The current epidemiological situation is highly conducive to periodic dengue resurgences. Thus, a high degree of surveillance and strict control measures in source reduction should be maintained.

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Significance Dengue is a vector-borne infectious disease that threatens human health on a global scale. Because of climate change, globalization, and other factors, dengue has increasingly spread to new countries and over larger areas, from tropical to temperate zones. In this study, we found that climate has both direct effects on dengue incidence and indirect effects mediated by mosquito density, as mosquitoes are the vectors of dengue. The quantitative results derived from this study may be helpful toward advancing our understanding of how climate influences vector-borne diseases and prove useful for the control and prevention of dengue fever. Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.

Emergence of dengue virus 4 genotype II in Guangzhou, China, 2010: Survey and molecular epidemiology of one community outbreak

BackgroundThe re-emergence of dengue virus 4 (DENV-4) has become a public health concern in South America, Southeast Asia and South Asia. However, it has not been known to have caused a local outbreak in China for the past 20 years. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the epidemiology of one local community outbreak caused by DENV-4 in Guangzhou city, China, in 2010; and to determine the molecular characteristics of the genotype II virus involved.Case presentationsDuring September and October of 2010, one imported case, a Guangzhou resident who travelled back from Thailand, resulted in 18 secondary autochthonous cases in Guangzhou City, with an incidence rate of 5.53 per 10,000 residents. In indigenous cases, 14 serum samples tested positive for IgM against DENV and 7 for IgG from a total of 15 submitted serum samples, accompanied by 5 DENV-4 isolates. With identical envelope gene nucleotide sequences, the two isolates (D10168-GZ from the imported index case and Guangzhou 10660 from the first isolate in the autochthonous cases) were grouped into DENV-4 genotype II after comparison to 32 previous DENV-4 isolates from GenBank that originated from different areas.ConclusionsBased on epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses, the outbreak, which was absent for 20 years after the DENV-4 genotype I outbreak in 1990, was confirmed as DENV-4 genotype II and initially traced to the imported index case, a Guangzhou resident who travelled back from Thailand.

Circulation of Coxsackievirus A6 in hand-foot-mouth disease in Guangzhou, 2010-2012.

BackgroundHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is usually caused by Enterovirus 71(EV71), and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) in Guangzhou, the biggest city of South China. However, Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) were observed increased dramatically from 2010–2012.MethodsIn order to understand and to describe the epidemiologic and genetic characteristics of CV-A6, specimens of 5482 suspected HFMD cases were collected and examined by real-time fluorescence PCR. All samples positive for enteroviruses were analyzed by descriptive statistics. Phylogenetic analysis of CV-A6 based on the VP1 sequences was performed to investigate molecular and evolutionary characteristics.ResultsCoxsackievirus A6 increased dramatically from 9.04% in 2010 to 23.21% in 2012 and became one of the main causative agents of HFMD in Guangzhou. CV-A6 attack rates were highest in one to two year olds (33.14%). Typical clinic symptoms of CV-A6 HFMD include fever (589/720, 81.81%), maculopopular rash and vesicular exanthema around the perioral area (408/720, 56.66%), intraoral (545/720, 75.69%), the buttock (395/720, 54.86%), the trunk (244/720, 33.89%), the knee (188/720, 26.11%), and the dorsal aspects of hands (437/720, 60.69%). Phylogenetic analysis showed the CV-A6 isolates in this study belonged to Cluster A1 and were similar to those found in Shanghai in 2011 and 2012 (JX495148, KC414735), Shenzhen in 2011 (JX473394), Japan in 2011 (AB649243, AB649246), France in 2010(HE572928), Thailand in 2012(JX556564) and Israel in 2012 and 2013(.KF991010, KF991012).

Detection of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus from live poultry markets in Guangzhou, China: a surveillance report.

Purpose A virologic surveillance program for A(H7N9) virus was conducted from April 15, 2013 to February 14, 2014 in Guangzhou, aiming to clarify the geographical distribution of A(H7N9) viruses among live poultry markets (LPMs) and poultry farms in Guangzhou. Virological and serological surveys of poultry workers were also conducted to evaluate the risk of poultry-to-human transmission of the A(H7N9) virus. Methods 36 retail LPMs, 6 wholesale LPMs and 8 poultry farms were involved in our surveillance program. About 20 live poultry and environmental samples were obtained from each surveillance site at every sampling time. Different environmental samples were collected to represent different poultry-related work activities. RT-PCR and virus culture were performed to identify the A(H7N9) virus. Hemagglutinin inhibition assay and RT-PCR were conducted to detect possible A(H7N9) infection among poultry workers. Results A total of 8900 live poultry and environmental samples were collected, of which 131(1.5%) were tested positive for A(H7N9) virus. 44.4% (16/36) of retail LPMs and 50.0% (3/6) of wholesale LPMs were confirmed to be contaminated. No positive samples was detected from poultry farms. A significant higher positive sample rate was found in environmental samples related to poultry selling (2.6%) and slaughtering (2.4%), compared to poultry holding (0.9%). Correspondingly, A(H7N9) viruses were isolated most frequently from slaughter zone. In addition, 316 poultry workers associated with the 19 contaminated-LPMs were recruited and a low seroprevalence (1.6%) of antibody against A(H7N9) virus was detected. An asymptomatic A(H7N9) infection was also identified by RT-PCR. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of conducting effective surveillance for A(H7N9) virus and provides evidence to support the assumption that slaughtering is the key process for the propagation of A(H7N9) virus in retail LPMs. Moreover, the ability of A(H7N9) virus to cross species barrier is proved to be still limited.

Effect of Live Poultry Market Closure on Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Activity in Guangzhou, China, 2014

Temporary closure and disinfection can rapidly reduce levels of infectious virus in these settings.

Climate and the Timing of Imported Cases as Determinants of the Dengue Outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a Mathematical Model.

As the world’s fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou. Regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) was adopted to calibrate the model and entomological surveillance data was used to validate the mosquito submodel. Different scenarios were created to investigate the roles of the timing of an imported case, climate, vertical transmission from mosquitoes to their offspring, and intervention. The results suggested that an early imported case was the most important factor in determining the 2014 outbreak characteristics. Precipitation and temperature can also change the transmission dynamics. Extraordinary high precipitation in May and August, 2014 appears to have increased vector abundance. Considering the relatively small number of cases in 2013, the effect of vertical transmission was less important. The earlier and more frequent intervention in 2014 also appeared to be effective. If the intervention in 2014 was the same as that in 2013, the outbreak size may have been over an order of magnitude higher than the observed number of new cases in 2014.The early date of the first imported and locally transmitted case was largely responsible for the outbreak in 2014, but it was influenced by intervention, climate and vertical transmission. Early detection and response to imported cases in the spring and early summer is crucial to avoid large outbreaks in the future.

Molecular epidemiological and virological study of dengue virus infections in Guangzhou, China, during 2001–2010

BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) infection is the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral infection in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Guangzhou has the ideal environment for DENV transmission and DENV epidemics have been reported in this region for more than 30 years.MethodsInformation for DENV infection cases in Guangzhou from 2001 to 2010 were collected and analyzed. The DENV strains were cultured and isolated from patients’ sera. Viral RNA was extracted from cell culture supernatants. cDNA was synthesized by reverse transcription PCR. Phylogenetic trees of four DENV serotypes were constructed respectively.ResultsIn total, 2478 DENV infection cases were reported; 2143 of these (86.43%) occurred during 3 months of the year: August, September and October. Of these, 2398 were local cases (96.77%) and 80 were imported cases (3.23%). Among the imported cases, 69 (86.25%) were from Southeast Asian countries. From the 90 isolated strains, 66.67%, 3.33%, 14.44%, and 15.56% belonged to DENV serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. DENV-1 was predominant in most of the years, including during 2 outbreaks in 2002 and 2006; however, none of the strains or genotypes identified in this study were found to be predominant. Interestingly, DENV strains from different years had different origins. Moreover, the strains from each year belonged to different serotypes and/or genotypes.ConclusionsSoutheast Asia countries were found to be the possible source of DENV in Guangzhou. These findings suggest that there is increasing diversity in DENV strains in Guangzhou, which could increase the risk of DENV outbreaks in the near future.