Zhong

Why Are Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Sensitive to the Cumulus Parameterization Scheme in Regional Climate Modeling? A Case Study for Megi (2010)

AbstractThe Weather Research and Forecasting Model is employed to simulate Tropical Cyclone (TC) Megi (2010) using the Grell–Devenyi (GD) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) cumulus parameterization schemes, respectively. The TC track can be well reproduced with the GD scheme, whereas it turns earlier than observations with the BMJ scheme. The physical mechanism behind different performances of the two cumulus parameterization schemes in the TC simulation is revealed. The failure in the simulation of the TC track with the BMJ scheme is attributed to the overestimation of anvil clouds, which extend far away from the TC center and reach the area of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). Such extensive anvil clouds, which result from the excessively deep convection in the eyewall, eventually lead to a large bias in microphysics latent heating. The warming of the upper troposphere due to the condensation in anvil clouds coupled with the cooling of the lower troposphere due to precipitation evaporation cause a...

Decadal change of South China Sea tropical cyclone activity in mid‐1990s and its possible linkage with intraseasonal variability

This study focuses on the decadal variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS) since the 1970s and its possible cause behind. It is found that TC activity over the SCS experiences a significant decadal change around the mid-1990s. Compared to the period from the 1970s to the early 1990s, the number of TCs formed in the SCS remarkably increases from the mid-1990s through the 2000s. In particular, this change of TC genesis is closely related to a decadal shift in atmospheric intraseasonal variability (ISV) that occurred in 1994. The ISV on the 30–60 days time scale over the SCS has been increasing since the mid-1990s, and the increased TC frequency after 1994 is attributed primarily to the active convection induced by the enhancement of the SCS ISV. In addition, the TC activities before the mid-1990s are mostly confined within the SCS basin. However, more TCs form over the SCS and move northeastward since the mid-1990s and finally enter the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea. Anomalies of westerly over the northern SCS after 1994 are responsible for the northeastward moving of TCs.

Different Pacific Ocean Warming Decaying Types and Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

AbstractThis study focuses on statistical analysis of anomalous tropical cyclone (TC) activities and the physical mechanisms behind these anomalies. Different patterns of decaying of the warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific are categorized into three types: eastern Pacific warming decaying to La Nina (EPWDL), eastern Pacific warming decaying to a neutral phase (EPWDN), and a central Pacific warming decaying year (CPWD). Differences in TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) corresponding to the above three types are discussed, and possible mechanisms are proposed. For EPWDL, TC genesis shows a significant positive (negative) anomaly over the northwestern (southeastern) WNP and more TCs move westward and make landfall over the southern East Asian coast. This is attributed primarily to the combined modulation of La Nina and the warm equatorial east Indian Ocean SSTA. For EPWDN, enhanced TC genesis is observed over the northeastern WNP, and suppress...

Numerical experiments of the storm track sensitivity to oceanic frontal strength within the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extensions

The sensitivity of the North Pacific storm track to midlatitude oceanic frontal strength within the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extensions is investigated by applying artificially changed meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the Weather Research Forecasting model version 3.4. The result of sensitivity experiments further confirms the close relationship between the storm track activity and meridional SST gradient; i.e., the storm track activity can be intensified as a response to increases in the oceanic frontal strength. In order to better understand the mechanism for the storm track intensification due to increased SST gradient, velocity-temperature correlation and local energetics are analyzed. The result indicates that the enhancement of the meridional SST gradient leads to amplitude magnification of eddy meridional velocity and temperature and their phase consistency, suggesting that synoptic-scale eddies tend to approach the optimum structure for the baroclinic energy conversion, which is mainly responsible for the SST front-induced enhancement of storm track activity. In order to estimate the impact of the oceanic front on the maintenance of the near-surface baroclinicity, further investigation is made by the composite analysis. With the increase in oceanic frontal strength, the near-surface baroclinicity experiences a slow but strong restoration. The increase in the meridional SST gradient results in the intensification in the cross-frontal differential sensible heat flux, which can more effectively offset the relaxing effect of the transient eddy poleward heat transport.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Feedback on the Intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High to Microphysics Schemes

AbstractThe Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model is used to examine the sensitivity of a simulated tropical cyclone (TC) track and the associated intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) to microphysical parameterization (MP) schemes. It is found that the simulated WPSH is sensitive to MP schemes only when TCs are active over the western North Pacific. WRF fails to capture TC tracks because of errors in the simulation of the WPSH intensity. The failed simulation of WPSH intensity and TC track can be attributed to the overestimated convection in the TC eyewall region, which is caused by inappropriate MP schemes. In other words, the MP affects the simulation of the TC activity, which influences the simulation of WPSH intensity and, thus, TC track. The feedback of the TC to WPSH plays a critical role in the model behavior of the simulation. Further analysis suggests that the overestimated convection in the TC eyewall results in excessive anvil clouds a...

Influences of ENSO on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Its Meridional Transport

AbstractThis study investigates the influences of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) kinetic energy and its meridional transport in the western North Pacific (WNP) using the TC wind field obtained after a method for removing TC vortices from reanalysis data is applied. Results show that ENSO strongly modulates TC kinetic energy and its meridional transport in the WNP, but their effects and regions differ. The TC kinetic energy is positively correlated with the Nino-3.4 index in the entire WNP, and its poleward transport is positively (negatively) correlated with the Nino-3.4 index in the eastern WNP (the western WNP and the South China Sea); these correlations are statistically significant. The maximum TC kinetic energy is located around 25°N, 135°E (25°N, 125°E) in the warm (cold) year, showing an east–west pattern during different ENSO phases. The meridional transport of TC kinetic energy exhibits a dipole pattern over the WNP, with the poleward (equatorward) transport in the eastern (western) WNP. Both pole...

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Track Simulation over the Western North Pacific to Different Heating/Drying Rates in the Betts–Miller–Janjić Scheme

AbstractThe Weather Research and Forecasting Model is employed to examine the sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone (TC) motion and associated intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WSPH) to different heating and drying rates in the Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) cumulus parameterization (CP) scheme. A case study of Tropical Cyclone Megi (2010) is performed. Results indicate that the simulated WPSH strengthens as the heating/drying effects of the BMJ decrease. A strong WPSH subsequently leads to changes in the large-scale steering flow in its southern edge and delays the northward turning of the simulated storm. The associated physical mechanism is revealed. As the heating/drying is overestimated in the BMJ, the model produces unrealistic drying below 500 hPa whereas the atmosphere becomes moist above 500 hPa. Drying in the lower troposphere hinders the activation of the microphysics while moistening in the upper troposphere facilitates the microphysics. As a result, the model generates extensi...

The opposite effects of inner and outer sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone intensity

A suite of semiidealized numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity to changes of sea surface temperature (SST) over different radial extents. It is found that the increase of inner SST within the range 1.5–2.0 times the radius of maximum wind (RMW), defined as the effective radius (ER), contributes greatly to the increase of TC intensity and the reduction of TC inner-core size, whereas the increase of outer SST (defined as SST outside the ER) reduces TC intensity and increases TC inner-core size. Further analysis suggests that the effects of SST inside and outside the ER on TC intensity rely on the factors that influence the TC development. As the SST increases inside the ER, more surface enthalpy flux enters the TC eyewall and less enters the outer spiral rainbands. This will decrease the RMW, leading to a smaller eyewall radius where strong latent heating is released. As a result, the central pressure of the TC deepens with stronger radial pressure gradient. Meanwhile, the difference between SST and upper tropospheric temperature increases. All factors above contribute to TC intensification as the inner SST increases. The opposite happens as the SST increases outside the ER. How TC intensity responds to the change of the entire SST depends on the competitive and opposite effects of inner and outer SST. Moreover, understanding the mechanisms is vital to the forecast of variations in TC intensity and inner-core size when a TC comes across an ocean cold or warm pool.

Dependence of the relationship between the tropical cyclone track and western Pacific subtropical high intensity on initial storm size: A numerical investigation

A suite of numerical experiments were conducted to investigate the sensitivity of the tropical cyclone (TC) motion—western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) intensity relationship to initial storm size. Two TC cases, Songda (2004) and Megi (2010), were studied. It was found that with the increase of initial storm size, the main body of the WPSH tends to withdraw eastward and the TC tends to turn northward earlier. The involved physical mechanism was investigated. Rather than the change of the beta effect due to storm size change, it is the change of the geopotential height in the TC outer region that is critical for the different TC tracks between the sensitivity experiments. Due to increase of the initial storm size, the inflow mass flux entering the TC region increases, leading to a significant decrease in 500 hPa geopotential height in the TC outer region after 2–3day integration. As a result, the simulated intensity of the WPSH over its fringe close to the TC decreases notably when the WPSH edge is within the TC outer region. Such a decrease leads to a break of WPSH. Subsequently, the TC turns northward toward the break of the subtropical high. This further weakens the intensity of the WPSH over the region close to the TC. The result helps us better understand the relationship between the TC track andWPSH intensity. It also indicates that a proper representation of initial storm size is important for realistic prediction of TC track and the change of the WPSH.

Contributions of Barotropic Energy Conversion to Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity during ENSO

AbstractThe contribution of barotropic energy conversion to tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) during warm and cold phases of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by separating TC vortices from reanalysis data and using a linearized eddy kinetic energy tendency equation. By comparing the characteristics of TC disturbances with synoptic-scale disturbances, it is found that the modulation of ENSO on the WNP TC intensity is presented more objectively by using TC kinetic energy (EKETC) than eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Barotropic energy conversion (KmKe) into TC disturbances (KmKeTC) is an effective indicator in detecting the barotropic energy source of low-level cyclone genesis and maintenance during the ENSO cycle. However, its dynamical processes play different roles. Shear in large-scale zonal wind and convergence in large-scale meridional wind provide direct barotropic energy source for TC genesis, but make effects in different regions of the WNP. In contrast...