Zhongqiong Zhang

Unraveling of permafrost hydrological variabilities on Central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using stable isotopic technique

Permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) will substantially alter the surface runoff discharge and generation, which changes the recharge processes and influences the hydrological cycle on the QTP. Hydrological connections between different water bodies and the influence of thawing permafrost (ground ice) are not well understood on the QTP. This study applied water stable isotopic method to investigate the permafrost hydrological variabilities in Beiluhe Basin (BLB) on Central QTP. Isotopic variations of precipitation, river flow, thermokarst lake, and near-surface ground ice were identified to figure out the moisture source of them, and to elaborate the hydrological connections in permafrost region. Results suggested that isotopic seasonalities in precipitation is evident, it is showing more positive values in summer seasons, and negative values in winter seasons. Stable isotopes of river flow are mainly distributed in the range of precipitation which is indicative of important replenishment from precipitation. δ18O, δD of thermokarst lakes are more positive than precipitation, indicating of basin-scale evaporation of lake water. Comparison of δI values in different water bodies shows that hydrology of thermokarst lakes was related to thawing of permafrost (ground ice) and precipitation. Near-surface ground ice in BLB exhibits different isotopic characteristics, and generates a special δD-δ18O relationship (freezing line): δD=5.81δ18O-23.02, which reflects typical freezing of liquid water. From isotopic analysis, it is inferred that near-surface ground ice was mainly recharged by precipitation and active layer water. Stable isotopic and conceptual model is suggestive of striking hydrological connections between precipitation, river flow, thermokarst lake, and ground ice under degrading permafrost. This research provides fundamental comprehensions into the hydrological processes in permafrost regions on QTP, which should be considered in investigating the influence of thawing permafrost on the hydrological cycle on QTP.

Simulation of permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, over the past three decades

ABSTRACT Permafrost is one of the largest elements of the terrestrial cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change. Based on mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) data from 189 boreholes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), terrain factors, and climate data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, we propose a new mean annual ground air temperature (MAGAT) statistical model between meteorological parameters with subsurface temperatures to simulate permafrost distribution and variation of MAGT on the QTP over the past three decades (1981–2010). Validation of the model with MAGT data from 13 boreholes and permafrost maps of the QTP indicated that the MAGAT model is applicable to simulate the distribution and evolution of permafrost on the QTP. Simulation results show that the spatiotemporal MAGT of permafrost significantly increased by 0.37°C, or 0.25°C/10 yr, and the total area of permafrost decreased by 2.48 × 105 km2 on the QTP over the past three decades. Regionally, the changes of permafrost in the southwestern QTP were greater than other regions of the QTP.