Zvonimira Šverko Grdić

Winter Tourism in Croatia: Is it Possible?

Tourism in Croatia primarily relies on the “sun and sea” product as the main asset of its offering. The current lack of adequate infrastructure, an underdeveloped winter tourism offering and the lack of stakeholders’ interest in developing winter tourism products are only some of the problems facing winter tourism development in Croatia. Winter tourism development does not include only snow-related activities but all outdoor activities, where weather and climate play a significant role. This paper analyzes the relationship between average monthly climate indicators in summer and winter periods and the number of overnight stays in Croatia from 1977 to 2014. In the regression analysis, we used a multivariate model with first difference specification and ordinary least square (OLS) estimation, in which past period of the dependent variable was also included. Seasonality was controlled by using quarterly dummy variable. The analyses for coastal and continental Croatia were made separately. Using regression and correlation analyses, we prove that Croatian tourism in the coastal part is strongly related to climate parameters while that influence in the continental part is less significant. The main hypothesis of the paper is that, with the increase in temperature, the tourism season will be prolonged in both the coastal and continental part of the Republic of Croatia. However, other interventions in tourism (such as raising the quality, expanding the offering etc.) can also increase tourism results since climate parameters do not have the same effect on the continental and coastal part of the Republic of Croatia. The impending climate change will cause climate indicators to change, thus unlocking the potential for winter tourism development in areas not related to the sea, but also requiring the development of various forms of special-interest tourism. Winter tourism in Croatia represents a big potential not only because climate change will potentially make winters in Croatia milder but also because, with the right policies, there is a huge potential to develop the undeveloped region of continental Croatia with products that would diversify the Croatian tourism offerings.