Physics

We show that the eclectic "Boogaloo" extremist movement that is now rising to prominence in the U.S., has a hidden online mathematical order that is identical to ISIS during its early development, despite their stark ideological, geographical and cultural differences. The evolution of each across scales follows a single shockwave equation that accounts for individual heterogeneity in online interactions. This equation predicts how to disrupt the onset and 'flatten the curve' of such online extremism by nudging its collective chemistry.

Most of the opinion dynamics models in sociophysics have their historic origin in studies two-dimensional magnetization phenomena. This metaphor has proven quite useful, as it allowed to use well known techniques, relating individual behaviours of single spins and their interactions, to large scale properties, such as magnetization or magnetic domains creation. These physical properties were then ``mapped'' to social concepts: spin orientation to a person's views on a specific issue, magnetization to global opinion on the issue, etc. During the past 20 years, the models were significantly expanded, using more complex individual agent characteristics and even more complex types of the interactions, but the power of the metaphor remained unchanged. In the current paper we propose to use a new physical system as the basis for new ideas in sociophysics. We shall argue that the concepts and tools devoted to studies of High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) could significantly broaden the range of social concepts ``addressable'' by sociophysics, by focusing on a wider range of global phenomena, arising from atomic properties, interactions and arrangements. We illustrate the new idea by calculating a few characteristics of a simple HEA system and their possible ``mapping'' into social concepts.

A high fidelity model for the propagation of pathogens via aerosols in the presence of moving pedestrians is proposed. The key idea is the tight coupling of computational fluid dynamics and computational crowd dynamics in order to capture the emission, transport and inhalation of pathogen loads in space and time. An example simulating pathogen propagation in a narrow corridor with moving pedestrians clearly shows the considerable effect that pedestrian motion has on airflow, and hence on pathogen propagation and potential infectivity.

Reckoning of pairwise dynamical correlations significantly improves the accuracy of mean-field theories and plays an important role in the investigation of dynamical processes on complex networks. In this work, we perform a nonperturbative numerical analysis of the quenched mean-field theory (QMF) and the inclusion of dynamical correlations by means of the pair quenched mean-field (PQMF) theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on synthetic and real networks. We show that the PQMF considerably outperforms the standard QMF on synthetic networks of distinct levels of heterogeneity and degree correlations, providing extremely accurate predictions when the system is not too close to the epidemic threshold while the QMF theory deviates substantially from simulations for networks with a degree exponent γ>2.5 . The scenario for real networks is more complicated, still with PQMF significantly outperforming the QMF theory. However, despite of high accuracy for most investigated networks, in a few cases PQMF deviations from simulations are not negligible. We found correlations between accuracy and average shortest path while other basic networks metrics seem to be uncorrelated with the theory accuracy. Our results show the viability of the PQMF theory to investigate the high prevalence regimes of recurrent-state epidemic processes on networks, a regime of high applicability.

Major disasters such as extreme weather events can magnify and exacerbate pre-existing social disparities, with disadvantaged populations bearing disproportionate costs. Despite the implications for equity and emergency planning, we lack a quantitative understanding of how these social fault lines translate to different behaviors in large-scale emergency contexts. Here we investigate this problem in the context of Hurricane Harvey, using over 30 million anonymized GPS records from over 150,000 opted-in users in the Greater Houston Area to quantify patterns of disaster-inflicted relocation activities before, during, and after the shock. We show that evacuation distance is highly homogenous across individuals from different types of neighborhoods classified by race and wealth, obeying a truncated power-law distribution. Yet here the similarities end: we find that both race and wealth strongly impact evacuation patterns, with disadvantaged minority populations less likely to evacuate than wealthier white residents. Finally, there are considerable discrepancies in terms of departure and return times by race and wealth, with strong social cohesion among evacuees from advantaged neighborhoods in their destination choices. These empirical findings bring new insights into mobility and evacuations, providing policy recommendations for residents, decision makers, and disaster managers alike.

We provide a mathematical model for networks based on similarities (homophily) and evolving by mutual imitation (mimesis). We show that such social networks will converge to a state of segregation, where the in-group interactions will be maximal and there will be no out-group flow of information. We establish some connections between our model and the Wolfram model for fundamental physics.

The current public sense of anxiety in dealing with disinformation as manifested by so-called fake news is acutely displayed by the reaction to recent events prompted by a belief in conspiracies among certain groups. A model to deal with disinformation is proposed; it is based on a demonstration of the analogous behavior of disinformation to that of wave phenomena. Two criteria form the basis to combat the deleterious effects of disinformation: the use of a refractive medium based on skepticism as the default mode, and polarization as a filter mechanism to analyze its merits based on evidence. Critical thinking is enhanced since the first one tackles the pernicious effect of the confirmation bias, and the second the tendency towards attribution, both of which undermine our efforts to think and act rationally. The benefits of such a strategy include an epistemic reformulation of disinformation as an independently existing phenomenon, that removes its negative connotations when perceived as being possessed by groups or individuals.

This research details outcomes from a global model which estimates future hydrogen penetration into a carbon constrained energy system to the year 2050. Focusing on minimum and maximum penetration scenarios, an investigation of global fuel cell vehicle (FCV) deployment is undertaken, cognizant of optimal economic deployment at the global level and stakeholder preferences in a case study of Japan. The model is mathematically formulated as a very large-scale linear optimization problem, aiming to minimize system costs, including generation type, fuel costs, conversion costs, and carbon reduction costs, subject to the constraint of carbon dioxide reductions for each nation. Results show that between approximately 0.8% and 2% of global energy consumption needs can be met by hydrogen out to the year 2050, with city gas and transport emerging as significant use cases. Passenger FCVs and hydrogen buses account for almost all of the hydrogen-based transportation sector, leading to a global deployment of approximately 120 million FCVs by 2050. Hydrogen production is reliant on fossil fuels, and OECD nations are net importers - especially Japan with a 100% import case. To underpin hydrogen production from fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is required in significant quantities when anticipating a large fleet of FCVs. Stakeholder engagement suggests optimism toward FCV deployment while policy issues identified include necessity for large-scale future energy system investment and rapid technical and economic feasibility progress for renewable energy technologies and electrolyzers.

We consider the development of hyperbolic transport models for the propagation in space of an epidemic phenomenon described by a classical compartmental dynamics. The model is based on a kinetic description at discrete velocities of the spatial movement and interactions of a population of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals. Thanks to this, the unphysical feature of instantaneous diffusive effects, which is typical of parabolic models, is removed. In particular, we formally show how such reaction-diffusion models are recovered in an appropriate diffusive limit. The kinetic transport model is therefore considered within a spatial network, characterizing different places such as villages, cities, countries, etc. The transmission conditions in the nodes are analyzed and defined. Finally, the model is solved numerically on the network through a finite-volume IMEX method able to maintain the consistency with the diffusive limit without restrictions due to the scaling parameters. Several numerical tests for simple epidemic network structures are reported and confirm the ability of the model to correctly describe the spread of an epidemic.

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer) league. We show that managers' ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of success. The prime factors in determining a manager's success are found to be long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers' decisions over time that result in the emergence of 'template' teams, suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision points over an extended temporal period.