A. H. W. Beusen

Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends

[1] An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970–2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export. In contrast, connectivity and level of sewage treatment and P detergent use were more important for differences in DIP river export. Global particulate nutrient export was calculated to decrease for all scenarios, in part due to increases in dams for hydropower. Small changes in dissolved silica and dissolved organics were calculated for all scenarios at the global scale. Population changes were an important underlying factor for river export of all nutrients in all scenarios. Substantial regional differences were calculated for all nutrient elements and forms. South Asia alone accounted for over half of the global increase in DIN and DIP river export between 1970 and 2000 and in the subsequent 30 years under the Global Orchestration scenario (globally connected with reactive approach to environmental problems); DIN river export decreased in the Adapting Mosaic (globally connected with proactive approach) scenario by 2030, although DIP continued to increase. Risks for coastal eutrophication will likely continue to increase in many world regions for the foreseeable future due to both increases in magnitude and changes in nutrient ratios in river export.

Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900–2050 period

Crop-livestock production systems are the largest cause of human alteration of the global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. Our comprehensive spatially explicit inventory of N and P budgets in livestock and crop production systems shows that in the beginning of the 20th century, nutrient budgets were either balanced or surpluses were small; between 1900 and 1950, global soil N surplus almost doubled to 36 trillion grams (Tg)·y−1 and P surplus increased by a factor of 8 to 2 Tg·y−1. Between 1950 and 2000, the global surplus increased to 138 Tg·y−1 of N and 11 Tg·y−1 of P. Most surplus N is an environmental loss; surplus P is lost by runoff or accumulates as residual soil P. The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development scenario portrays a world with a further increasing global crop (+82% for 2000–2050) and livestock production (+115%); despite rapidly increasing recovery in crop (+35% N recovery and +6% P recovery) and livestock (+35% N and P recovery) production, global nutrient surpluses continue to increase (+23% N and +54% P), and in this period, surpluses also increase in Africa (+49% N and +236% P) and Latin America (+75% N and +120% P). Alternative management of livestock production systems shows that combinations of intensification, better integration of animal manure in crop production, and matching N and P supply to livestock requirements can effectively reduce nutrient flows. A shift in human diets, with poultry or pork replacing beef, can reduce nutrient flows in countries with intensive ruminant production.

Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: HYDE 3.1

This paper describes a tool for long-term global change studies; it is an update of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) with estimates of some of the underlying demographic driving factors of global change. We estimate total and urban/rural population numbers, densities and fractions (including built-up area) for the Holocene, roughly the period 10 000 BC to AD 2000 with a spatial resolution of 5 min longitude/latitude. With a total global population increase from 2 to 6145 million people over that time span, resulting in a global population density increase of < 0.1 cap/km2 to almost 46 cap/km 2 and a urban built-up area evolving from almost zero to 0.5 million km2 (still only <0.5% of the total global land surface, but with a huge impact in terms of demands of food, services, building materials, etc.), it is clear that this must have had, and will continue to have, a profound influence on the Earth’s environment and its associated (climate) change. We hope that this data base can contribute to the Earth System Modelers community to gain better insight into long-term global change research.

Water in crisis

What do you do to start reading water in crisis? Searching the book that you love to read first or find an interesting book that will make you want to read? Everybody has difference with their reason of reading a book. Actuary, reading habit must be from earlier. Many people may be love to read, but not a book. Its not fault. Someone will be bored to open the thick book with small words to read. In more, this is the real condition. So do happen probably with this water in crisis.

Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds 2 (NEWS 2): Model development and implementation

Global NEWS is a global, spatially explicit, multi-element and multi-form model of nutrient exports by rivers. Here we present NEWS 2, the new version of Global NEWS developed as part of a Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario implementation from hindcast (1970) to contemporary (2000) and future scenario trajectories (2030 & 2050). We provide a detailed model description and present an overview of enhancements to input datasets, emphasizing an integrated view of nutrient form sub-models and contrasts with previous NEWS models (NEWS 1). An important difference with NEWS 1 is our unified model framework (multi-element, multi-form) that facilitates detailed watershed comparisons regionally and by element or form. NEWS 2 performs approximately as well as NEWS 1 while incorporating previously uncharacterized factors. Although contemporary global river export estimates for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and particulates show notable reductions, they are within the range of previous studies; global exports for other nutrient forms are comparable to NEWS 1. NEWS 2 can be used as an effective tool to examine the impact of polices to reduce coastal eutrophication at regional to global scales. Continued enhancements will focus on the incorporation of other forms and sub-basin spatial variability in drivers and retention processes.

Estimation of global river transport of sediments and associated particulate C, N, and P

[1] This paper presents a multiple linear regression model developed for describing global river export of sediments (suspended solids, TSS) to coastal seas, and approaches for estimating organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous transported as particulate matter (POC, PN, and PP) associated with sediments. The model, with river-basin spatial scale and a 1-year temporal scale, is based on five factors with a significant influence on TSS yields (the extent of marginal grassland and wetland rice, Fournier precipitation, Fournier slope, and lithology), and accounts for sediment trapping in reservoirs. The model generates predictions within a factor of 4 for 80% of the 124 rivers in the data set. It is a robust model which was cross-validated by using training and validation sets of data, and validated against independent data. In addition, Monte Carlo simulations were used to deal with uncertainties in the model coefficients for the five model factors. The global river export of TSS calculated thus is 19 Pg yr �1 with a 95% confidence interval of 11–27 Pg yr �1 when accounting for sediment trapping in regulated rivers. Associated POC, PN, and PP export is 197 Tg yr � 1 (as C), 30 Tg yr �1 (N), and 9 Tg yr �1 (P), respectively. The global sediment trapping included in these estimates is 13%. Most particulate nutrients are transported by rivers to the Pacific (� 37% of global particulate nutrient export), Atlantic (28–29%), and Indian (� 20%) oceans, and the major source regions are Asia (� 50% of global particulate nutrient export), South America (� 20%), and Africa (12%).

Global modeling of the fate of nitrogen from point and nonpoint sources in soils, groundwater, and surface water

[1] We present a global model that describes the fate of nitrogen (N) from point and nonpoint sources in the hydrological system up to the river mouths at the 0.5° by 0.5° spatial and annual temporal resolution. Estimates for point sources are based on population densities, per capita human N emissions, and data on sanitation coverage and wastewater treatment. For nonpoint sources, we use spatial information on land use, climate, hydrology, geology, and soils, combined with data on N inputs (fertilizers and animal manure, biological N fixation, and atmospheric deposition), and outputs (N removal in harvested agricultural products, ammonia emissions). Denitrification in the root zone and nitrate leaching to groundwater are calculated with a model that combines the effect of temperature, crop type, soil properties, and hydrological conditions. The nitrate concentration of the outflow for shallow and deep groundwater layers is based on historical inputs of fertilizer N and the effects of residence time and denitrification. In-stream N retention is based on a global estimate of 30% of the N discharged to surface water. Calculated and reported total N concentrations of discharge near the river outlet agree fairly well. However, our model systematically overestimates total N concentrations for river basins with mean annual temperature >0°C.

Exploring changes in river nitrogen export to the world's oceans

[1] Anthropogenic disturbance of river nutrient loads and export to coastal marine systems is a major global problem affecting water quality and biodiversity. Nitrogen is the major nutrient in rivers. On the basis of projections for food production and wastewater effluents, the global river N flux to coastal marine systems is shown to increase by 13% in the coming 3 decades. While the river N flux will grow by about 10% in North America and Oceania and will decrease in Europe, a 27% increase is projected for developing countries, which is a continuation of the trend observed in the past decades. This is a consequence of increasing nitrogen inputs to surface water associated with urbanization, sanitation, development of sewerage systems, and lagging wastewater treatment, as well as increasing food production and associated inputs of N fertilizer, animal manure, atmospheric N deposition, and biological N fixation in agricultural systems. Growing river N loads will lead to increased incidence of problems associated with eutrophication in coastal seas.

Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N2O emissions

Soil nitrogen (N) budgets are used in a global, distributed flow-path model with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, representing denitrification and N2O emissions from soils, groundwater and riparian zones for the period 1900–2000 and scenarios for the period 2000–2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Total agricultural and natural N inputs from N fertilizers, animal manure, biological N2 fixation and atmospheric N deposition increased from 155 to 345 Tg N yr−1 (Tg = teragram; 1 Tg = 1012 g) between 1900 and 2000. Depending on the scenario, inputs are estimated to further increase to 408–510 Tg N yr−1 by 2050. In the period 1900–2000, the soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal by plants) increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr−1, and this may remain stable or further increase to 275 Tg yr−1 by 2050, depending on the scenario. N2 production from denitrification increased from 52 to 96 Tg yr−1 between 1900 and 2000, and N2O–N emissions from 10 to 12 Tg N yr−1. The scenarios foresee a further increase to 142 Tg N2–N and 16 Tg N2O–N yr−1 by 2050. Our results indicate that riparian buffer zones are an important source of N2O contributing an estimated 0.9 Tg N2O–N yr−1 in 2000. Soils are key sites for denitrification and are much more important than groundwater and riparian zones in controlling the N flow to rivers and the oceans.

The integrated modeling system STONE for calculating nutrient emissions from agriculture in the Netherlands

For the Netherlands, a nutrient emission modeling system, called STONE, has been developed. It was designed for evaluation at the national and regional scale of the effects of changes in the agricultural sector (e.g. changes in fertilizer recommendations and cropping patterns) and in policy measures (e.g. EU nitrate directive for ground water) for the leaching of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from agricultural land areas to ground water and surface waters. STONE consists of a chain of models, which are applied subsequently to a large number (6405) of unique units that represent the variation in biophysical conditions in the Netherlands. This paper discusses the main components of the STONE model chain, covering manure excretion and distribution, NH3 emission and deposition, N and P uptake by crops, transport and immobilization of N and P in soils, and leaching of N and P to surface and ground water. The plausibility of the results from STONE is studied by analyzing the approach and calibration of the different models within STONE and the validity of the models’ results. An overview of weak and strong components within STONE is presented. It was found that computed results on nutrient leaching to ground and surface waters from STONE compare fairly well with observations. A number of aspects that may limit the plausibility of the results generated by STONE are discussed. The models’ capability is illustrated by results from an application. In this study the effects of a number of possible policy measures on fertilizer use within Dutch agriculture are explored for the coming 30 years. The computed future nutrient emissions indicate the efficacy of various policy measures and the location of eutrophication-sensitive areas in the Netherlands.  2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.