Robin Brooks

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

The Rise in Comovement Across National Stock Markets: Market Integration or it Bubble?

A stylized fact in the portfolio diversification literature is that diversifying across countries is more effective than diversifying across industries in terms of risk reduction. But with the rise in comovement across national stock markets since the mid-1990s, this no longer appears to be true. We explore whether this change is driven by global integration and therefore likely to be permanent, or if it is a temporary phenomenon associated with the recent stock market bubble. Our results point to the latter hypothesis. In the aftermath of the bubble, diversifying across countries may therefore still be effective in reducing portfolio risk.

Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe

This paper uses a multiregion overlapping generations model with perfect capital mobility to simulate the general equilibrium effects of projected population trends on international capital flows. It finds that retirement saving by aging baby boomers will raise the supply of capital substantially above investment in both the European Union and North America, causing both regions to export large amounts of capital to Africa, Latin America, and other emerging markets in the years ahead. Beyond 2010, however, baby boomers in the European Union and North America will dissave in retirement, causing both regions to become capital importers. This shift will be financed by capital flows from Latin America and other emerging markets, while Africa will remain dependent on foreign capital for the foreseeable future because of continued high population growth. Despite severe population aging, Japan is predicted to remain a substantial capital exporter beyond 2030.

What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire

This paper explores whether changes in the age distribution have significant effects on financial markets that are rational and forward-looking. It presents an overlapping generations model in which agents make a portfolio decision over stocks and bonds when saving for retirement- Using the model to simulate a baby boom-baby bust demonstrates that returns to baby boomers will be substantially below returns to earlier generations, even when markets are rational and forward-looking. This result is important because the current debate over how to reform pay-as-you-go pension systems often takes historical returns on financial assets—and on the equity premium—as given.

Country versus Region Effects in International Stock Returns

An empirical regularity in the portfolio diversification literature is the importance of country effects in explaining international return variation. A new decomposition here disaggregates these country effects into region effects and within-region country effects. Half of the return variation typically attributed to country effects seems attributable actually to region effects, a result robust across developed and emerging markets; the remaining variation is explained by within-region country effects. For the average investor, this means that diversifying across countries within Europe, for example, delivers half the risk reduction possible from diversifying across regions globally.

The New Economy and Global Stock Returns

This paper revisits the relative importance of global versus country-specific factors underlying stock returns. It constructs a new firm level data set covering emerging and developed markets and estimates a simple factor model, which breaks down stock returns into a global business cycle factor, global industry factors, country-specific factors and firm-level effects. The results indicate that the share of variation in stock returns explained by global industry factors has grown sharply since the mid-1990s, at the expense of country-specific factors. Foremost among the global factors is a “new economy” factor, which has become a key determinant of global stock returns.

When is the Standard Analysis of Common Property Extraction under Free Access Correct? A Game‐Theoretic justification for Non‐Game‐Theoretic Analyses

Analyses of common property extraction under free access follow two distinct paths, traditional and game‐theoretic, giving rise to two standard methodologies. One methodology avoids game‐theoretic analysis by assuming that aggregate extraction in each period induces fel rent dissipation. The second methodology solves for the Marko‐perfect equilibrium of an n‐player extraction game investigating aggregate behavior over time as n → ∞. We show by example that these coexisting standard methodologies can yield conflicting predictions. We then provide conditions, relatively easy to satisfy, sufficient for the two approaches to yield the same predictions.

A Latent Factor Model with Global, Country, and Industry Shocks for International Stock Returns

We estimate a latent factor model that decomposes international stock returns into global, country-, and industry-specific shocks and allows for stock-specific exposures to these shocks. We find that across stocks there is substantial dispersion in these exposures, which is partly explained by the extent to which firms operate across countries. We show that portfolios consisting of stocks with low exposures to country shocks achieve substantial variance reduction relative to the global market, both in- and out-of-sample. The shock exposures are thus a stock-selection device for international portfolio diversification.

Firm-Level Evidenceon International Stock Market Comovement

We explore the link between international stock market comovement and the degree to which firms operate globally. Using stock returns and balance sheet data for companies in 20 countries, we estimate a factor model that decomposes stock returns into global, country-specific and industry-specific shocks. We find a large and highly significant link: on average, a firm raising its international sales by 10 percent raises the exposure of its stock return to global shocks by 2 percent and reduces its exposure to countryspecific shocks by 1.5 percent. This link has grown stronger since the mid-1980s.

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes1

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility. JEL Classification Numbers: F4, F33, E3