Adayr da Silva Ilha

O comércio potencial brasileiro de carne bovina no contexto de integração regional

This study analyses the Brazilian beef exportation potential considering the supposition of future agreements of regional integration. The countries or blocks that were chosen are The European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Popular Republic of China (PRC) and Japan. To analyze the meat sector exportation potential, four methodological generalizations are developed: the importing potential of the mentioned countries, the calculus of the evolution in the Revealed Advantage Index of Brazilian exportations and its main competitors, bibliographical research of the main existing trade barriers and the calculus of the Regional Orientation Index. The results concerning the importing potential indicate that the European Union (EU) consists of a very attractive market to Brazilian beef. The results of the calculus of comparative advantages reveal that Brazil has a higher competitivity in meat sector and it increasing in the period between 1990 and 2003. When considering the competitors inside each block or country, the European Union shows up as the major competitor. As far as the imposed trade barriers, these come out, in a general way, as extremely high and sometimes representing a blockage. Thus, the Brazilian meat sector would be largely improved if these barriers were eliminated. Finally, on the last relation, we can verify the high level of acceptance of Brazilian beef exportation to those blocks that do not have impeditive sanitary barriers. Nevertheless, when crossing the results obtained to the sector one can observe that from the accomplishment of inter-regional free trade agreements, via Mercosur or through bilateral agreements with the blocks or countries considered in this study, would bring real profits to the Brazilian meat sector.