Adnan Moussalli

A brief guide to model selection, multimodel inference and model averaging in behavioural ecology using Akaike’s information criterion

Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) is increasingly being used in analyses in the field of ecology. This measure allows one to compare and rank multiple competing models and to estimate which of them best approximates the “true” process underlying the biological phenomenon under study. Behavioural ecologists have been slow to adopt this statistical tool, perhaps because of unfounded fears regarding the complexity of the technique. Here, we provide, using recent examples from the behavioural ecology literature, a simple introductory guide to AIC: what it is, how and when to apply it and what it achieves. We discuss multimodel inference using AIC—a procedure which should be used where no one model is strongly supported. Finally, we highlight a few of the pitfalls and problems that can be encountered by novice practitioners.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between ‘bright’ and ‘dull’. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of ‘bright’ and ‘dull’ males. ‘Bright’ models were attacked significantly more often than ‘dull’ models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol.  2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Camouflage, communication and thermoregulation: lessons from colour changing organisms

Organisms capable of rapid physiological colour change have become model taxa in the study of camouflage because they are able to respond dynamically to the changes in their visual environment. Here, we briefly review the ways in which studies of colour changing organisms have contributed to our understanding of camouflage and highlight some unique opportunities they present. First, from a proximate perspective, comparison of visual cues triggering camouflage responses and the visual perception mechanisms involved can provide insight into general visual processing rules. Second, colour changing animals can potentially tailor their camouflage response not only to different backgrounds but also to multiple predators with different visual capabilities. We present new data showing that such facultative crypsis may be widespread in at least one group, the dwarf chameleons. From an ultimate perspective, we argue that colour changing organisms are ideally suited to experimental and comparative studies of evolutionary interactions between the three primary functions of animal colour patterns: camouflage; communication; and thermoregulation.

EVOLUTION OF COLOR VARIATION IN DRAGON LIZARDS: QUANTITATIVE TESTS OF THE ROLE OF CRYPSIS AND LOCAL ADAPTATION

Abstract Many animal species display striking color differences with respect to geographic location, sex, and body region. Traditional adaptive explanations for such complex patterns invoke an interaction between selection for conspicuous signals and natural selection for crypsis. Although there is now a substantial body of evidence supporting the role of sexual selection for signaling functions, quantitative studies of crypsis remain comparatively rare. Here, we combine objective measures of coloration with information on predator visual sensitivities to study the role of crypsis in the evolution of color variation in an Australian lizard species complex (Ctenophorus decresii). We apply a model that allows us to quantify crypsis in terms of the visual contrast of the lizards against their natural backgrounds, as perceived by potential avian predators. We then use these quantitative estimates of crypsis to answer the following questions. Are there significant differences in crypsis conspicuousness among populations? Are there significant differences in crypsis conspicuousness between the sexes? Are body regions “exposed” to visual predators more cryptic than “hidden” body regions? Is there evidence for local adaptation with respect to crypsis against different substrates? In general, our results confirmed that there are real differences in crypsis conspicuousness both between populations and between sexes; that exposed body regions were significantly more cryptic than hidden ones, particularly in females; and that females, but not males, are more cryptic against their own local background than against the background of other populations. Body regions that varied most in contrast between the sexes and between populations were also most conspicuous and are emphasized by males during social and sexual signaling. However, results varied with respect to the aspect of coloration studied. Results based on chromatic contrast (“hue” of color) provided better support for the crypsis hypothesis than did results based on achromatic contrast (“brightness” of color). Taken together, these results support the view that crypsis plays a substantial role in the evolution of color variation and that color patterns represent a balance between the need for conspicuousness for signaling and the need for crypsis to avoid predation.

Selection for Social Signalling Drives the Evolution of Chameleon Colour Change

Rapid colour change is a remarkable natural phenomenon that has evolved in several vertebrate and invertebrate lineages. The two principal explanations for the evolution of this adaptive strategy are (1) natural selection for crypsis (camouflage) against a range of different backgrounds and (2) selection for conspicuous social signals that maximise detectability to conspecifics, yet minimise exposure to predators because they are only briefly displayed. Here we show that evolutionary shifts in capacity for colour change in southern African dwarf chameleons (Bradypodion spp.) are associated with increasingly conspicuous signals used in male contests and courtship. To the chameleon visual system, species showing the most dramatic colour change display social signals that contrast most against the environmental background and amongst adjacent body regions. We found no evidence for the crypsis hypothesis, a finding reinforced by visual models of how both chameleons and their avian predators perceive chameleon colour variation. Instead, our results suggest that selection for conspicuous social signals drives the evolution of colour change in this system, supporting the view that transitory display traits should be under strong selection for signal detectability.

Predator-specific camouflage in chameleons

A crucial problem for most animals is how to deal with multiple types of predator, which differ in their sensory capabilities and methods of prey detection. For animals capable of rapid colour change, one potential strategy is to change their appearance in relation to the threat posed by different predators. Here, we show that the dwarf chameleon, Bradypodion taeniabronchum, exhibits different colour responses to two predators that differ in their visual capabilities. Using a model of animal colour perception to gain a ‘predators eye view’, we show that chameleons showed better background colour matching in response to birds than snakes, yet they appear significantly more camouflaged to the snake visual system because snakes have poorer colour discrimination.

Natural Selection on Social Signals: Signal Efficacy and the Evolution of Chameleon Display Coloration

Whether general patterns of signal evolution can be explained by selection for signal efficacy (detectability) has yet to be established. To establish the importance of signal efficacy requires evidence that both signals and their detectability to receivers have evolved in response to habitat shifts in a predictable fashion. Here, we test whether habitat structure has predictable effects on the evolution of male and female display coloration in 21 lineages of African dwarf chameleon (Bradypodion), based on a phylogenetic comparative analysis. We used quantitative measures of display coloration and estimated signal detectability as the contrast of those colors among body regions or against the background vegetation as perceived by the chameleon visual system. Both male and female display colors varied predictably with different aspects of habitat structure. In several (but not all) instances, habitat‐associated shifts in display coloration resulted in habitat‐associated variation in detectability. While males exhibit a remarkable variety of colors and patterns, female display coloration is highly conserved, consisting in all populations of contrasting dark and light elements. This color pattern may maximize detectability across all habitat types, potentially explaining female conservatism. Overall, our results support the view that selection for signal efficacy plays an important role in the evolution of animal signals.

Multiple signals in chameleon contests : designing and analysing animal contests as a tournament

Traditionally, studies of intrasexual selection have focused on single traits that are more exaggerated in males. Relatively little is known about systems in which traits are larger in females or the role of multiple traits in male contests. We used a tournament design in which each male encounters a series of different opponents, in conjunction with the structured Bradley–Terry model, to examine the role of multiple male traits in contests between male Cape dwarf chameleons, Bradypodion pumilum. Females are larger but males have relatively longer tails, larger and more ornamented heads and a larger central flank patch, all of which are emphasized during agonistic displays. We found no evidence that larger body size confers an advantage in male contests, despite high levels of aggression and escalated encounters. However, both the height of the casque (head ornament) and relative area of the flank patch were positively associated with fighting ability, and not correlated with each other, suggesting that they may represent independent sources of information about an opponents ability. We discuss these results in relation to the role of male contest competition in the evolution of multiple male signals and sexual dimorphism in dwarf chameleons. In addition, we show that the use of tournament designs, in conjunction with the structured Bradley–Terry model, has important advantages over traditional designs and methods of analysing animal contests.

Phylogenomic Resolution of the Class Ophiuroidea Unlocks a Global Microfossil Record

Our understanding of the origin, evolution, and biogeography of seafloor fauna is limited because we have insufficient spatial and temporal data to resolve underlying processes. The abundance and wide distribution of modern and disarticulated fossil Ophiuroidea, including brittle stars and basket stars, make them an ideal model system for global marine biogeography if we have the phylogenetic framework necessary to link extant and fossil morphology in an evolutionary context. Here we construct a phylogeny from a highly complete 425-gene, 61-taxa transcriptome-based data set covering 15 of the 18 ophiuroid families and representatives of all extant echinoderm classes. We calibrate our phylogeny with a series of novel fossil discoveries from the early Mesozoic. We confirm the traditional paleontological view that ophiuroids are sister to the asteroids and date the crown group Ophiuroidea to the mid-Permian (270 ± 30 mega-annum). We refute all historical classification schemes of the Ophiuroidea based on gross structural characters but find strong congruence with schemes based on lateral arm plate microstructure and the temporal appearance of various plate morphologies in the fossil record. The verification that these microfossils contain phylogenetically informative characters unlocks their potential to advance our understanding of marine biogeographical processes.

Variable responses of skinks to a common history of rainforest fluctuation: concordance between phylogeography and palaeo‐distribution models

There is a growing appreciation of impacts of late‐Quaternary climate fluctuations on spatial patterns of species and genetic diversity. A major challenge is to understand how and why species respond individualistically to a common history of climate‐induced habitat fluctuation. Here, we combine modelling of palaeo‐distributions and mitochondrial‐DNA phylogeographies to compare spatial patterns of population persistence and isolation across three species of rainforest skinks (Saproscincus spp.) with varying climatic preferences. Using Akaike Information Criterion model‐averaged projections, all three species are predicted to have maintained one or more small populations in the northern Wet Tropics, multiple or larger populations in the central region, and few if any in the south. For the high‐elevation species, Saproscincus czechurai, the warm–wet climate of the mid Holocene was most restrictive, whereas for the generalist S. basiliscus and lower‐elevation S. tetradactyla, the cool–dry last glacial maximum was most restrictive. As expected, S. czechurai was the most genetically structured species, although relative to modelled distributions, S. basiliscus had surprisingly deep phylogeographical structure among southern rainforest isolates, implying long‐term isolation and persistence. For both S. basiliscus and S. tetradactyla, there was high genetic diversity and complex phylogeographical patterns in the central Wet Tropics, reflecting persistence of large, structured populations. A previously identified vicariant barrier separating northern and central regions is supported, and results from these species also emphasize a historical persistence of populations south of another biogeographical break, the Tully Gorge. Overall, the results support the contention that in a topographically heterogeneous landscape, species with broader climatic niches may maintain higher and more structured genetic diversity due to persistence through varying climates.